Cook Political Delegate Scorecard: Clinton at 125% of target, Sanders at 74%

[Godhumor]

After sweeping all five contests in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton has built an even more insurmountable lead over Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. Clinton now hows a pledged delegate lead of 1,139 to 825, meaning Sanders would need to win 58 percent of the remaining pledged delegates at stake to draw even with Clinton by June. That's a virtual impossibility given Democrats' all-proportional delegate allocation system.

...


If there is bad news for Clinton, it's that the next month of primaries could give the false impression that Sanders is on track for a big comeback. Over the next month, there are six caucuses where Sanders could easily exceed 58 percent of delegates: Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming. In addition, Sanders has a chance to win primaries in Arizona, North Dakota and Wisconsin in the coming weeks, raising the prospect Sanders could string together nine straight victories.

But Sanders's momentum is likely to be stalled by New York, Clinton's home state, on April 19. It's worth keeping in mind that New York has more delegates than Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho and Utah combined. And a week later on April 26, Sanders will face uphill battles in more diverse, higher-income northeastern states that should favor Clinton: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9385

My only disagreement is that I think Arizona is going to very safely go to Clinton. Possibly by a big enough margin to wipe out delegate losses in the other 2 states voting on Mar 22.

[kennetha]

1. Is Bernie really going to Win Washington State?

Yes it's a pretty liberal place, but it's a coastal state whose economy depends heavily on trade. It's not the decimated, depopulated Rust Belt. It's one of the centers of the new economy.

[LonePirate]

2. It's a caucus state which are perceived to be very pro-Sanders now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Same for Cali...

It's telling Jerry Brown hasn't said one thing about the TPP...

[Garrett78]

3. The next month probably won't go as well for Sanders as some expect.

In fact, I don't think it's a stretch to say Clinton's lead will be about the same heading into New York as it is right now. The 4/19 and 4/26 results will put a lot of pressure on Sanders to drop out.

[ColesCountyDem]

4. Sanders isn't going to withdraw, until all Dems have had a chance to vote.

It's not about "can't win", it's about "right to be heard".

[Garrett78]

5. I've never felt the Sanders Campaign was about winning so much as spurring a movement.

But there does come a time when you have to consider potential repercussions of staying in a race you can't win. At the very least, Sanders should eventually focus his message on the dangers of electing whichever batsh*t crazy person the Republican Party nominates. If that time isn't now, it's coming. Clinton's lead will be overwhelming by the end of April.

[ColesCountyDem]

10. I get confused about which Hillary is running, some times.

There is the Hillary who is ten feet tall and titanium-clad, who will be impervious to Teapublican attacks next fall, due to her long experience in dealing with such attacks, and then there is the Hillary who is so fragile that she can't stand some hard questions about her finances, etc., from her opponent for the party's nomination.

I'd really, REALLY like to now which Hillary is running for President....

[workinclasszero]

6. "New York has more delegates than Washington, Wisconsin, Idaho and Utah combined"

Thanks for playin Bernie

[Proud Public Servant]

7. Prediction

Hillary will win every remaining state east of the Mississippi except Wisconsin. It pains me, as a Sanders supporter, to say that, but I stand by it.

[MineralMan]

9. That's entirely possible.

I think she will also win California and Arizona. Wisconsin will be a virtual tie, so that won't affect the delegate lead at all. I give Hillary an even chance of winning there, too.