Hillary Clinton will lose to Donald Trump

[Skwmom]

This article lays out some (though not all) of the arguments as to why Trump will beat Clinton.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/18/hillary-clinton-will-lose-to-donald-trump/

[RandySF]

1. They are wrong

Any Democrat would win a landslide against Trump.

[JoePhilly]

2. That's some serious nonsense.

[JonLeibowitz]

3. I disagree. Hillary will WIN if the FBI doesn't recommend prosecution.

[villager]

5. And if the FBI does....?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. "Keep hope alive." (REDUX)

[JonLeibowitz]

9. I do hope that criminals receive justice.

[villager]

10. How, exactly?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Res ipsa loquitur

[villager]

21. Actually, just the opposite.

But who doesn't enjoy posting a Latin phrase now and again?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Appreciate the levity, I think.

[villager]

26. We should enjoy that levity unless/until the election is handed to Trump.

We will have other things on our plate aside from "levity," then...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Why does Trump and levity make me think of the movie 'Life is beautiful' ?

[villager]

40. Exactly. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Appreciate the levity, I think.

[JonLeibowitz]

8. Then I would hope she will be indicted, tried, and imprisoned.

Actually I hope the FBI recommends charges be filed, because everything I have seen is pretty convincing that she broke the law.

[RBInMaine]

38. Prosecution for WHAT???? It is foolish to even suggest such a thing. Good grief.

Nothing illegal happened with that email bullshit. They would also have to indict Colin Powell who did the same thing. And Jeb Bush at the state level who did the same thing. And Condoleeza Rice whose people did the same thing. Enough of that NONSENSE.

[Thinkingabout]

4. How many states has Trump gotten more than fifty percent of the vote?

[ibegurpard]

19. how many states have the Democrats'

Total votes outnumbered the Republicans' total votes?

[Thinkingabout]

22. Right now Hillary is up over two million votes.

[FreakinDJ]

32. GOP has been getting much more turn out then the DNC

[Thinkingabout]

34. Looking at the vote totals Hillary has gotten more than Bernie and

Bernie has gotten more than Trump who has the most votes in the GOP side.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Please see my signature

Thank you in advance.

[JonLeibowitz]

11. Nor would I want to. You have implicitly stood with war criminals such as Kissinger.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I couldn't care less

Nor would I want to. You have implicitly stood with war criminals such as Kissinger.

I couldn't care less what you and your associates think about me. I would think a lad as perspicacious as you think you are would have figured that out by now.

[Squinch]

12. You wish. But no.

[Timmy5835]

15. I feel like a broken record but this has to be repeated.

Unless Trump can get at least 46% of the Latino vote, he has NO chance of winning. Quit listening to the Media. Their job is to create controversy thus creating viewers and readers so THEY make MORE money. You're just a rube to them, don't fall for it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Partially right...

However he can get such a high percentage of the white vote that he can mitigate his damage among non white voters. That, however, would require him to receive a larger percentage of the white vote than any Republican in presidential history including Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon who own two of the largest electoral landslides in history.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

33. Like every election, it will be about turnout, not demographics

Trump is an insane, fascist idiot but he is really good getting his base of like minded idiots excited enough to turn out and vote for him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. Newton's Third Law Of Physics.

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction


Herr Trump will bring those who oppose his incipient fascist ass out of the proverbial woodwork.

[msongs]

16. and bernie sanders is losing to hillary clinton. next topic... nt

[brooklynite]

17. I stopped reading at "Counterpunch"

[Rebkeh]

18. Even if she were to win the election,

The party will lose with her at the helm.

They cannot beat Trump. He has no conscience, you cannot beat someone with no conscience using the same old tactics. Her way of doing things will not work. She does not have what it takes to win and keep the party intact so... No, she cannot beat Trump.

Bernie is the only one up there that can and, the article is right, a huge chunk of Bernie supporters will go Trump. It seems counter-intuitive but it is absolutely true. I see it every day.

Don't bother asking if I will, I will not. But my state will for sure.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Don't let the facts get in the way of a good argument

No, she cannot beat Trump.

The peer reviewed research suggests asking voters who they think will win is the best predictor of electoral success, ergo:

Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

[div class="excerpt]

.

Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

Hillary Clinton is a nearly 1/3 favorite at the offshore betting sites and the VT senator is nearly a 30-1 underdog


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner





The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null:

Trial-heat polls, hereafter simply referred to as polls, ask respondents for whom they
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

[Lucinda]

25. Nope. She won't. n/t

[NuclearDem]

27. Counterpunch. LOL.

[book_worm]

29. Do you believe everything you read?

Hillary will beat Trump.

[Gothmog]

31. If you really believe this, then you can make some good money on the options markets

The Democrats and Clinton are being given a 71% chance of winning in November. http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner The free market system disagrees with your assessment but the investors setting this price would be happy to take your money. Open an account and buy a contract if you really believe your analysis

[Bill USA]

35. Predictit: Who will win Presidential election: Hillary: .60, Trump: .29, Sanders: .07

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511526171

[Lil Missy]

37. Wishful thinking.

[smiley]

39. I'm sure the author of the op is thanking you for the kick..

And personally I think you would have to be detached from reality to think she doesn't have a gazillion monkeys on her back just waiting to drag her down.

But at the same time... maybe you're right. Old Donny, Hill, & Bill are great friends (you've seen the pic right?), so maybe he'll go easy on her.

[LexVegas]

41. ...