Say it's June 6th. 714 delegates are left to be allocated.

[Chichiri]

Suppose that Bernie needs all 714 of them.

Is it mathematically possible for Bernie to win? The number of delegates needed are not greater than the number of delegates remaining, so sure, it's mathematically possible.

Is it realistically possible? Of course not.

Suppose that this (admittedly VERY unlikely) situation were to come about. 714 down on the day before California, 714 left. Would you still insist that Bernie could win?

What if Bernie had 713?

712?

710?

700?

At what point are you willing to say, that's it, we gave it our best shot but our guy didn't win, now it's time to get behind Hillary and get her into the Oval Office? (Or, alternately, evil has prevailed and there's nothing we can do so it's time to scorch the earth, bwa ha ha?)

Consider that the time may be now.

As of tonight, Hillary needs only 42.1% of the remaining pledged delegates to secure the nomination. Bernie needs 58%. If the remaining states were winner-take-all, then it would be enough for Bernie to win the larger ones by 51%. But each and every state is proportional, which means Bernie needs to win each and every state by an average of 58% or more.

If you honestly think that's going to happen, then I would be grateful to you if you'd explain what states he is going to win, what margins will he win by, and what combination of polling data and demographics leads you to that conclusion. It's a lot to ask, I know, but the Bernie campaign has numbers wonks just as we do, and I guarantee they've given this more than a little thought. Ask them for the numbers.

You're under no obligation to satisfy me, of course -- I'm just a guy on the internet! But you're not. You're you. You're the guy or gal in the mirror. So if the numbers actually exist, and if they satisfy you -- while you're being completely honest with yourself -- then fine.

Otherwise, time for unity.

[HerbChestnut]

1. The deficit is currently around 310-320ish

There is no way he would need 700+ on June 7th. Less than half the delegates have been allocated so far. There is still plenty of time left in this primary, and the calendar has turned to Bernie's favor. Let's see where we stand in 2 months...

[Chichiri]

2. I admit it's unlikely, but it, or something like it, is possible.

The calendar favors Bernie, but there are factors other than the calendar involved, and from everything I've seen, those factors favor Hillary. I can't understand why people don't see that, and that's why I want to see the numbers.

By the by, thank you for the civil and moderated response.

[HerbChestnut]

4. Yeah, of course.

It's sad to see where this forum has gone in the last few weeks. But back to the topic at hand, we will see where this election is headed on Tuesday. If Bernie is able to pull off a sweep, or at least win UT, ID, and come close in AZ then it's game on. If he loses 2 or 3 states then I'd say it's just about done.

[Garrett78]

6. 400+ (by the end of April) is certainly possible, however.

Clinton will probably be ahead by ~400 by the end of April. Sanders would maybe break even in May, but perhaps not if most people have concluded that the race is over.

At 400 (or even 300) heading into June, it's not realistic to think Sanders would win. Unless you think he's going to win *big* in California and New Jersey.

If Clinton's lead is 400+ following the April 26th primaries, I'm not sure how Sanders can justify staying in the race given the potential repercussions of doing so.

As for March 22nd, I could see Sanders winning 2 of the 3 states while losing ground to Clinton, as a result of Arizona having way more delegates than Utah and Idaho combined.

[Autumn]

3. Or not

https://gfycat.com/ImprobableDeficientItalianbrownbear

[jfern]

5. If Bernie is down 400 delegates and Hillary gets indicted, he could still win

[artislife]

10. ^^^This.

[leftofcool]

12. Still wishing and hoping, eh?

[IdaBriggs]

17. ^== This.

[Trenzalore]

23. At that point

I think Joe Biden becomes the democratic nominee.

It goes to the convention and an alternative to Hillary is selected by Hillary delegates. It won't be Bernie Sanders.

[Grown2Hate]

7. I'm a Bernie supporter. Submitted my AZ ballot in the mail this morning.

But I'll be GODDAMNED if fucking TRUMP is going to nominate the next Supreme Court Justice. OF COURSE I'll rally behind the nominee, no matter who that may end up being. To think Hillary, with all of her faults, isn't INFINITELY a better choice than DONALD TRUMP is pure ignorance at it's worst.

[Bonobo]

8. Why do you feel that Democratic voters in so many of our states should not have a vote? nt

[hack89]

20. Where did that come from?

they get to vote. It is simply that their vote will not influence the results. That's what happens in two candidate races - if it were a three person race like the GOP then their votes would be important.

[artislife]

9. Unity is a far off dream. nt

[global1]

11. Help Me Here - Isn't In Her Best Interest That Bernie Stays In Till The Convention......

If you are so confident that Hillary has this thing wrapped up - then it seems to me you shouldn't want Bernie to drop out of this race before the convention. Why?

Here's what I think. Bernie staying in this - gives Hillary an opportunity to share her platform with all the rest of the states and get much exposure to voters that would be having to make the decision to vote between her and whomever the Repugs wind up with as their nominee.

Bernie allows her to have this exposure to half the country. That to me is a positive. If you and she are so confident that she will ultimately wind up as the nominee - you shouldn't have any problem with having her get this exposure. My only conclusion as to why you want Bernie out of this race this early in the process is that you don't have the confidence in your candidate that she can actually win.

The other reason that this should go on until the convention is because as soon as and if Bernie drops out - the Repugs will unleash all their attack dogs, campaign ads and money - to do everything possible to create a negative sentiment in this country against Hillary. Do you want that to happen this early in the process? I would want to minimize the time that the Repugs have to negative campaign against her or any Dem nominee.

Right now the Repugs don't have a nominee. That won't be decided until their brokered (oh - now it's called 'open') convention. So until then we have both Hillary and Bernie campaigning against the Repugs. That's like two against one (actually none) until they have their nominee.

It seems to me the Repugs would love for Bernie to drop out now. That way they can take the attention off of them and their problems and start attacking Hillary.

You should be thankful that Bernie is in this until the Dem Convention. There is plenty of time for Party unity once we reach that point.

[comradebillyboy]

32. I am a Hillary supporter and I think that your view

has considerable merit. There are a few points I could quibble about but all in all I think competition makes Hillary stronger.

[DCBob]

14. You might be interested in joining the group called PUMA.

[Waiting For Everyman]

15. Of course it's possible.

I take it you have never seen a brokered convention.

I have seen a number of them. Pay attention this year, probably both Dem and Repub conventions will be choosing the candidate, rather than having them known in advance by the delegate count.

Math isn't everything in this process, it's one thing. It most definitely isn't over until the nominating vote(s) are completed at the convention. And Bernie isn't leaving the race, that simply isn't going to happen.

For a fun example, check out the Dem convention of 1968. Hubert Humphrey was the nominee and he didn't even participate in the Primary. How 'bout them apples?

I remember it well, I was 18 that year. My age group learned a lot about primaries that year.


"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so". (Mark Twain)

[brooklynite]

19. Please explain on what basis you imagine there would be a brokered convention...

There are only two candidates; one will have a majority. There is no mathematical model anyone has suggested that Sanders will be that candidate.

[Trenzalore]

24. The only way I see a brokered convention

Is something happens after the primaries that Hillary has to be removed from consideration.

At that point I believe Joe Biden becomes the nominee if Hillary had the majority of delegates going into the convention.

[Garrett78]

25. I guess I don't understand the "math isn't everything" position.

Whoever wins a majority of the pledged delegates will, in all likelihood, be the nominee. If it ends up really close (such as 2026-2025), then the superdelegates will play a role. But we're still talking about math and that magic number of 2383.

Since Clinton is ahead by more than 300 currently and will likely be ahead by 400+ by the end of April, it's safe to say we aren't looking at a close finish.

[quaker bill]

16. If Hillary is the candidate I will vote for her

I prefer Bernie and will support him to the convention even if it is clear that he is placing second. He is simply the right candidate with the right ideas.

I will vote for Hillary in the general if it comes to that, because Trump is the wrong candidate with all the wrong ideas.

This is the unity I am capable of. It will need to be sufficient.

[comradebillyboy]

33. I think that is sufficient unity

and it is the right thing to do.

[brooklynite]

18. I've asked for an explanation of what States he'll win for weeks...

It always comes back to "anything can happen" or "everyone has a right to vote for Bernie".

[Garrett78]

21. Delegate calculators have been created for people to use.

I've also asked folks to demonstrate with delegate math how Sanders might get to 2026 pledged delegates, and I'm yet to see a single person demonstrate a realistic path to the nomination for Sanders.

Several have said something along the lines of, "If Clinton can win the first half 58%-42%, then Sanders can win the second half 58%-42%." In the Super Bowl this year, Carolina dominated the first half and Seattle dominated the second half. But political primaries are not sporting events. We can look at the demographic information and the states that each candidate has been winning and draw fairly safe conclusions about which states that have yet to vote favor which candidate. Clinton does best in larger, more diverse states. Sanders does best in smaller, less diverse states. And then there's the fact that most of the remaining contests are closed primaries. One need not be a fortune teller or math genius to understand where we're headed. So, I imagine that's why people don't take on the challenge of demonstrating a path for Sanders. The path simply isn't there.

[H2O Man]

22. No thank you.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

26. All the way to the convention

[Garrett78]

27. And if the delegate count is 2300-1750...

...what then?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

28. well it may not be

[Garrett78]

29. Well, sure. But if one has a clear majority of the pledged delgates...

...what then?

[7wo7rees]

30. Yep, hope and change, get over it. Move on. So yesterday.

Time for pragmatism. Hillary is the 1.

I'll stop here. Anything else I might say could be rude.

[Lazy Daisy]

31. There will be no unity

As long as I am called a racist, bigotted , mysoginistic, low information voter with white privilege.
(and not just here, Bill does his fair share of trash talking us Bernie supporters)

If I were black I would be afforded the respect to say a candidate must earn my vote, but I'm not. So instead I'm demeaned, degraded, my intelligence and morals questioned.

I've also been told my vote is not needed or wanted.


So y'all need to figure it out. You want us or you don't. Hillary has courted you voters, now she needs to court us.
P.S. I like daisies and Godiva chocolates