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Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:07 PM Mar 2016

Looking at this chart, it's obvious that Bernie doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning

Obama's 90 delegate lead at this point in 2008 proved to be insurmountable because of proportional allocation.

Hillary currently has a 300+ delegate lead over Bernie.

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The below doesn't include superdelegates, the unpledged delegates that cause so many complaints. This is earned delegates, the people committed to Clinton and Sanders through voting. Clinton's lead over Sanders is now 2.7 times the biggest lead Barack Obama had over her at any point in 2008.

This isn't insignificant. Because the Democratic calendar features only proportional contests -- no winner-take-alls -- it means that Sanders can't simply win a California and make up a big chunk of that gap. He needs to win big states big.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/16/bye-bye-bernie-the-democratic-race-is-all-but-over/

20 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Looking at this chart, it's obvious that Bernie doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning (Original Post) Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 OP
Then why are you acting panicky? HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #1
DU rec...nt SidDithers Mar 2016 #2
Neither does she in the general election. Fawke Em Mar 2016 #3
So Bernie supporters are going to vote for Jill Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #7
And here I thought we weren"t suppose to let supporters make our all american girl Mar 2016 #15
You are seriously the worst one! Nt Logical Mar 2016 #20
Thankie! Lucinda Mar 2016 #4
Sanders is out now with a very hypocritical argument: CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #5
When WAPO entitles an article "Bye Bye Bernie" 6chars Mar 2016 #6
"Obama's 90 delegate lead at this point in 2008 proved to be insurmountable because of... Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #8
Hillary won contests in 2008 after the 90 delegate lead Trenzalore Mar 2016 #9
Correct. Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #11
I think he should run it out Trenzalore Mar 2016 #13
So we're down a touchdown at the half.... I think we'll hang in there. Cool chart, tho! reformist2 Mar 2016 #10
More accurate to say 5 touchdowns Trenzalore Mar 2016 #12
It may take a moment or two, but reality will sink in ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #14
Reality Hillary is a liar has already set in with many! Nt Logical Mar 2016 #19
You're probably right... So what are the best war stocks to invest in? And banks? lostnfound Mar 2016 #16
LOL. Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #17
Classy as usual Cali! A little birdie tell you this? Nt Logical Mar 2016 #18

Fawke Em

(11,366 posts)
3. Neither does she in the general election.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:17 PM
Mar 2016

Her supporters have driven Bernie fans to the other woman: Jill.

 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
7. So Bernie supporters are going to vote for Jill
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:25 PM
Mar 2016

Because Hillary supporters have been mean to them?

Boo hoo hoo....

all american girl

(1,788 posts)
15. And here I thought we weren"t suppose to let supporters make our
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 04:07 PM
Mar 2016

decision...at least that's what the Bernie supporters said. Now I'm very confused.

 

CalvinballPro

(1,019 posts)
5. Sanders is out now with a very hypocritical argument:
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:21 PM
Mar 2016

Super-delegates in states that he won should be bound to vote according to the state's wishes, i.e. for him. Super-delegates in states Clinton won, however, should violate their voters' will and vote for Sanders anyway.

Does he not even understand how dishonest this argument is? That only Sanders voters should have their votes acknowledged?

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
8. "Obama's 90 delegate lead at this point in 2008 proved to be insurmountable because of...
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:26 PM
Mar 2016

...proportional allocation".

No, actually it was because Obama was too popular in the rest of the races for Clinton to catch up to him, That is the honest truth. That is what it boiled down to. It was a contest between two candidates, each drawing comparable support in the second half of the campaign - so Clinton could not close the gap that year against Obama.

You can certainly argue, and no doubt you do, that Sanders will not be popular enough in the remaining states to make up the current difference and win. But every election is different.

Trenzalore

(2,331 posts)
9. Hillary won contests in 2008 after the 90 delegate lead
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:28 PM
Mar 2016

The margins weren't substantial enough after this point in order for her to make up the difference.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,912 posts)
11. Correct.
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:38 PM
Mar 2016

I do not dispute that it is better to have a delegate lead than not to have a delegate lead, or that it takes a more impressive string of performances to overcome a large delegate gap than a small one. I am just saying that the 2008 race had its own unique dynamics, as does the 2016 race. Bernie beat Hillary by a lot more in NH than she beat Obama by there last time. Results in the South were way more lop sided this time. Who knows how Washington will vote this time etc.? The odds obviously strongly favor Hilary, but the contest is not yet so far along that a series of strong Sanders victories now, building momentum for other strong Sanders victories later, could not still close this gap. Different people, different time.

Trenzalore

(2,331 posts)
13. I think he should run it out
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:46 PM
Mar 2016

I also think when it becomes apparent that he has little chance of securing enough delegates the focus should shift to talking about his message and not attacks on his opponent.

lostnfound

(16,170 posts)
16. You're probably right... So what are the best war stocks to invest in? And banks?
Sun Mar 20, 2016, 11:15 PM
Mar 2016

Gotta find seeming good in this situation.

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