2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIt is over ..... the math
Hillary Clinton's #s
HRC has 1681 delegates ... HRC needs 2157 to get the nomination and 2383 delegates still remain to
be picked.
The math
2157 - 1681 = 702 (delegates needed for the nomination)
702/2383 = 32% (HRC will need 32% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination)
Bernie's #s
Bernie has 927 delegates .... Bernie needs 2157 to get the nomination and 2383 delegates still remain to
be picked.
The math
2157 - 927 = 1456 (delegates needed for the nomination)
1456/2383 = 68% (Bernie will need 68% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination)
Octafish
(55,745 posts)The numbers don't look good, though. Thanks for putting them together, Botany.
Botany
(70,501 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)Doc, don't worry. I know you have been on this case since Florida was on the horizon.
Even if you were for Hillary, I'd always respect you and appreciate what you have to write and share.
Botany
(70,501 posts)Although the Bernie group dropped my ban.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Here's the Original Arizona White Power Vote Suppressor Supreme, in all his Sgt. Pepper glory:
[font size="5"]Just our Bill[/font size]
By Dennis Roddy
Saturday, December 02, 2000
Lito Pena is sure of his memory. Thirty-six years ago he, then a Democratic Party poll watcher, got into a shoving match with a Republican who had spent the opening hours of the 1964 election doing his damnedest to keep people from voting in south Phoenix.
"He was holding up minority voters because he knew they were going to vote Democratic," said Pena.
The guy called himself Bill. He knew the law and applied it with the precision of a swordsman. He sat at the table at the Bethune School, a polling place brimming with black citizens, and quizzed voters ad nauseam about where they were from, how long they'd lived there -- every question in the book. A passage of the Constitution was read and people who spoke broken English were ordered to interpret it to prove they had the language skills to vote.
By the time Pena arrived at Bethune, he said, the line to vote was four abreast and a block long. People were giving up and going home.
SNIP
Party leaders told him not to get physical, but this was the second straight election in which Republicans had sent out people to intellectually rough up the voters. The project even had a name: Operation Eagle Eye.
CONTINUED
http://old.post-gazette.com/columnists/20001202roddy.asp
OP from 2004 (can you believe how time flies?): http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2414083
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)Haha. I've been calling them superduperdelegates for a while now. I can also predict the future.
Octafish
(55,745 posts)Of all the Studs in the Scud multiverse, no one knows how to voice every vote twice like Wolf Blitzer.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)by explaining that it's not over.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)When one of the candidates crosses the threshold of candidates needed or drops out. You are talking about probabilities not facts.
Botany
(70,501 posts)If the national trends continue then HRC should have the needed #s by
the PA primary.
Trends and probabilities are not facts.
demwing
(16,916 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)probably still not the end of the story
demwing
(16,916 posts)mmonk
(52,589 posts)amborin
(16,631 posts)lmbradford
(517 posts)Won't the rest of the Sanders' supporters join me.
Every time someone calls for him to quit, donate.
Botany
(70,501 posts)I never called on him to quit and I think he does more good by staying in the race.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Super delegate 'math' is dishonest to it's core ...
Because I've known you for a very long time here. I will not ignore you, but I question the judgement to use Super Delegate mathematics in this ....
It is a false conclusion based on false premises.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)2383 includes the unpledged delegates.
Bettie
(16,095 posts)those of us who have supported anyone other than Clinton are about to be purged from the party as we are undesirables?
Botany
(70,501 posts)how you got something about purging people from the party from my
post I don't know
Bettie
(16,095 posts)about the upcoming purge.
Also, commentary about how those of us who prefer Sanders aren't welcome in the party. How we are neither needed nor wanted in the party and/or general election.
Just a little sensitive today, I guess. Sorry I misinterpreted your intention. Just too much time in the snake pit, I guess.
Botany
(70,501 posts)And I wish you well.
I might be wrong but I worked up the #s as I saw them.
Bettie
(16,095 posts)think Sanders will be the nominee.
But, I do think that he needs to stick around to keep the conversation going.
Because, make no mistake, when he leaves, even lip service to things that benefit actual human people who are not in the 1% will be gone.
Yeah, I'll vote for Clinton in the general, if she is the nominee, but it won't be with enthusiasm or even hope. It will be with resignation that my kids will not do better than their parents.
Plus, I have young teen boys. I fear them getting sucked into the war machine. I don't want my kids or anyone else's kids to die for lies and profit.
Botany
(70,501 posts)But like you I will vote for her in the fall
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)He's still on the path to victory according to Nate Silver.
And your math includes super delegates as I'm sure you know. Its premature to include them.
Botany
(70,501 posts)But to me super delegates look like perks for party insiders and I don't think you
can call Bernie a party insider by any means.
I wish you well.
Kaleva
(36,294 posts)Both sides hitting their targets means the they'll be tied in pledged delegates come convention time. And that's when HRC's commanding lead in super delegates comes into play.