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phantom power

(25,966 posts)
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:06 PM Mar 2016

"A candidate who's still winning states with 80% of the votes against the presumptive nominee..."

It's kind of remarkable how much Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's maps of support overlap with each other. Both of them added Arizona to their winning columns last night, and both of them got slaughtered in Utah. Clinton was slaughtered in Idaho, too, much like Trump was crushed there on March 8th.

Clinton actually had a pretty bad showing yesterday. It doesn't look good to be losing 20%-80% in Utah and 21%-78% in Idaho. The margins were so big that they more than wiped out her advantage in Arizona and allowed Sanders to net way more delegates than expected. It was a repeat of 2008, when Obama's advantage in Idaho erased Hillary's gains in the much more delegate-rich (and expensive) New Jersey.

But it doesn't really matter. Sanders is still behind by more than 300 delegates, not including the supers. She already has the nomination locked up. The reason last night was important for Sanders is that no one can look at those results and tell him that he should just get out. A candidate who's still winning states with 80% of the votes against the presumptive nominee has the right to take his case to the convention, and that's what I expect Sanders to do.

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2016/3/23/113712/199
42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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"A candidate who's still winning states with 80% of the votes against the presumptive nominee..." (Original Post) phantom power Mar 2016 OP
It's amazing how well he does 72DejaVu Mar 2016 #1
It is, I agree. Considering all of her structural advantages she should be embarrassed. phantom power Mar 2016 #2
You do know, I assume 72DejaVu Mar 2016 #3
I'm not sure metroins Mar 2016 #16
Yes, and I even understand that she's probably going to win. phantom power Mar 2016 #17
she knows that Bernie can beat her when people get to know him, and so do her fans Viva_La_Revolution Mar 2016 #37
I loved these failed memes Tarc Mar 2016 #21
Because no one knows who she is Politicalboi Mar 2016 #26
FIXED DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #5
OK, midrange in population and less white than the US as a whole, less white than Arizona or Nevada Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #19
You mean she's throwing all those voters under the bus? pdsimdars Mar 2016 #13
24,000 turned out in Utah. 24,000. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #4
I cant wait till the New York primary! workinclasszero Mar 2016 #6
Is that the real number of voters there? sufrommich Mar 2016 #11
Untrue. Fully. As of now 81.5% of precincts are reporting, 65, 505 votes cast so far with Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #25
Less than 20% of the population of my single NJ county. Sanders isn't winning this state with 60%. CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #27
Hillary is a HORRIBLE candidate... And if she somehow sleazes her way to the Nomination, we'll LOSE. AzDar Mar 2016 #7
I guess that depends 72DejaVu Mar 2016 #8
WE, The People. AzDar Mar 2016 #9
And the Democratic Party will lose the presidency. . . . Hillary is a losing candidate. pdsimdars Mar 2016 #14
What does that make Bernie 72DejaVu Mar 2016 #18
Bernie would win the Presidency if Democrats were smart enough to nominate him. Dawgs Mar 2016 #31
"Vote Sanders: Unless you're to STUPID too..." Catchy bumper sticker brooklynite Mar 2016 #33
"to stupid too"? bunnies Mar 2016 #35
He can't even win the nomination redstateblues Mar 2016 #34
Actually, I'm much less worried about Hillary and Bernie as candidates PCPrincess Mar 2016 #36
I must have missed an election 72DejaVu Mar 2016 #15
Like a Bernie Sanders supporter in most 2016 states, I must have missed that election. nt CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #28
I don't think she'll lose. phantom power Mar 2016 #10
Yeah it's a real mystery. FlatBaroque Mar 2016 #41
LOL. Shes +14 on Trump already. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #12
Is Sanders still behind in delegates? Yes Will he catch up? No upaloopa Mar 2016 #20
Will Hillary ever be President? No Dawgs Mar 2016 #32
What is the Establishment that's been trying to squash Sanders' campaign? mikehiggins Mar 2016 #22
K&R amborin Mar 2016 #23
the arizona exit polls had Bernie winning, it was stolen for sure in my mind litlbilly Mar 2016 #24
There were no official exit polls conducted in AZ. LonePirate Mar 2016 #29
You May Want to Clarify PCPrincess Mar 2016 #39
By official, I mean the usual organization that has conducted all of the previous exit polling. LonePirate Mar 2016 #40
those would be the exit polls where a couple of voters asked a couple of their friends onenote Mar 2016 #38
Bernie must be way ahead in delegates by now. JoePhilly Mar 2016 #30
0ne person, one vote BainsBane Mar 2016 #42

72DejaVu

(1,545 posts)
3. You do know, I assume
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:19 PM
Mar 2016

that you win the nomination by accumulating a majority of delegates, not states won, right?

metroins

(2,550 posts)
16. I'm not sure
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:31 PM
Mar 2016

What are these delegates you speak of?

Are they akin to superman or pledges of allegiance?

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
17. Yes, and I even understand that she's probably going to win.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:32 PM
Mar 2016

But, seriously, Clinton ought to be wondering how it is that Sanders came out of nowhere and turned this into a contest. A contest that she still hasn't actually won yet, statistical odds notwithstanding.

Viva_La_Revolution

(28,791 posts)
37. she knows that Bernie can beat her when people get to know him, and so do her fans
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:18 PM
Mar 2016

Hence the constant shrill screams for him to drop out.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)
21. I loved these failed memes
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:36 PM
Mar 2016

Clinton barely campaigned for either red state caucus, so the numbers are not surprising. However, Sanders tried to spend his way into the AZ race, and flopped;

Sanders wins overshadowed by Arizona loss[div]

Sanders invested heavily in Arizona. He more than doubled Clinton’s ad spending there, dropping $1.3 million on television advertising over the past week compared to Clinton’s $600,000. And he campaigned in the state on virtually every one of the past seven days.


So

AZ:
BS: 27
HRC: 43
pending: 5

ID:
BS: 17
HRC: 6

UT:
BS: 18
HRC: 6
pending: 9

Sanders has a net +4 now. Let's give him all of UT's outstandings and 2 of 5 of AZ's for a +15. He beat her by 15 delegates but in essence had to spend 2 states to do it.

When you spend $2 to make $1.50, it eventually catches up to ya...

Math.
 

Politicalboi

(15,189 posts)
26. Because no one knows who she is
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:41 PM
Mar 2016


She really doesn't need as much campaigning as Bernie. And AZ hopefully will get contested.
 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
19. OK, midrange in population and less white than the US as a whole, less white than Arizona or Nevada
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:32 PM
Mar 2016

OK= 75.4% White. Arizona =84%. Texas = 80% Illinois 77.7%. United States is 77.7% white, just like Illinois but a bit whiter than OK. In terms of population size, OK is #28 among 50, not exactly in the middle but very close. So too small and too white relative to other States? Not really.

 

pdsimdars

(6,007 posts)
13. You mean she's throwing all those voters under the bus?
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:30 PM
Mar 2016

That's what the Hillarians said when Bernie didn't campaign in the south.
So I guess that's how they see this too???
Or do they have a serious DOUBLE STANDARD???

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
25. Untrue. Fully. As of now 81.5% of precincts are reporting, 65, 505 votes cast so far with
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:39 PM
Mar 2016

Bernie at 79.7 percent meaning thus far, 12,970 votes for Hillary, 52,185 for Bernie. Since you asked so nicely.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/22/arizona-idaho-utah-election-results-primaries-caucuses-live

That website is live so the figures are updated as they come in. You're welcome.

 

CalvinballPro

(1,019 posts)
27. Less than 20% of the population of my single NJ county. Sanders isn't winning this state with 60%.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:46 PM
Mar 2016
 

AzDar

(14,023 posts)
7. Hillary is a HORRIBLE candidate... And if she somehow sleazes her way to the Nomination, we'll LOSE.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:23 PM
Mar 2016

PCPrincess

(68 posts)
36. Actually, I'm much less worried about Hillary and Bernie as candidates
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:17 PM
Mar 2016

as I am about the voters who vote based on things like, emotion, resentment, parental influence, media influence, misinformation, bigotry in any form, or just plain selfishness. FAR FAR too often, human beings tend to make bad choices in many areas, and a majority is not in any way an indication of what is the best.

phantom power

(25,966 posts)
10. I don't think she'll lose.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:27 PM
Mar 2016

I do think she ought to be wondering how Sanders turned this into an actual contest.

mikehiggins

(5,614 posts)
22. What is the Establishment that's been trying to squash Sanders' campaign?
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:36 PM
Mar 2016

Put very plainly, any public official with a vested interest in things going on the way they have been since SCOTUS put Junior into office is part of the establishment.

Also, any public figure (not official) who also has a vested interest in things going on the way they have been is also part of the Establishment.

Thus, if I am an acknowledged "good guy" who is comfortable with playing the game the way its been played, then I am part of the Establishment.

And the Establishment is the overwhelming force opposing Sanders' campaign.

And they are stuck. Even without the support of Wall Street and private prisons and the DNC and all of the neo-cons lusting for a war with Iran, and Henry Kissinger, and Rahm Emmanuel, and the folks that make cluster bombs and landmines, etc., etc., the campaign rolls on despite being opposed by the most well known female politician in the world and the network of cronies she has built up over a quarter century.

Read that sentence again. Is it possible there is no reason for the fact that Sanders has come this far with everything stacked against him does not give the movers and shakers pause? Would they rather lose than allow Sanders, and the people fueling his campaign to succeed.

This current campaign reminds me of an explanation given once that you cannot change things because if you did you would change things and nobody wants to change things. I couldn't believe my ears at hearing someone stand in front of an audience and offer that rationale for, well, not changing things.

I'm hearing it again and it still amazes.

I will vote for the Democratic nominee, no matter what, or who. I wonder though how many people who want things to change would prefer not to vote for HRC and the Establishment. I wonder how many would take the chance of voting for the lead GOPuke clown because he, despite his own best efforts, will bring things crashing down.

I guess we'll see in November.

LonePirate

(13,417 posts)
29. There were no official exit polls conducted in AZ.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 12:48 PM
Mar 2016

I'm not sure where you picked up that misinformation.

PCPrincess

(68 posts)
39. You May Want to Clarify
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:41 PM
Mar 2016

There were, in fact, exit polls. Whether or not they were conducted by 'officials' is not pertinent.

LonePirate

(13,417 posts)
40. By official, I mean the usual organization that has conducted all of the previous exit polling.
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:46 PM
Mar 2016

Evidently some bare bones exit polling was conducted yesterday by an outlet I have no knowledge of and does not have the depth and experience of the regular organization.

onenote

(42,694 posts)
38. those would be the exit polls where a couple of voters asked a couple of their friends
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:20 PM
Mar 2016

who they voted for.

BainsBane

(53,031 posts)
42. 0ne person, one vote
Wed Mar 23, 2016, 01:56 PM
Mar 2016

Not votes in some states mean more than votes on others.

Clinton leads Bernie by 2.56 million votes and actually won more votes than Bernie yesterday.

I have no doubt he'll stay in as long as the money keeps coming in, but I'm guessing even that isn't as plentiful as it once was. I say that because for the first time I'm receiving emails from his campaign requesting money, despite the fact I never signed up for them and that I subscribed after receiving the first one.

Of course he'll stay in. What he won't do is win the nomination. He had a great night last night but sill fell below the targets he needs to hit to catch up with Clinton in earned delegates. Each contest in which he fails to make those targets increases the share of delegates he needs in the primaries that remain.

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