Here's what a Clinton-Trump map would look like today

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Nate Silver ✔ ‎@NateSilver538
Here's what the map might look like in an election held today. Trump's Rust Belt strength would help him keep MO, IN

[Agnosticsherbet]

1. That's a nice map. Smiles! nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Looks a tad bit like the 92 one.

[mcar]

2. A wonderful map!

[morningfog]

3. That'll do.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Republicans have to be besides themselves.

And what if the wheels fall off, the GOP breaks into two, and John Kasich leads the Real GOP party?

Then more states become in play.

[oasis]

6. Lots to like. (eom)

[Armstead]

7. He's become a Clinton shill -- Another talented person corrupted by the Clintons

He has decided to trade in the credibility of his skills to besome just anotehr shill for Clinton and the Conventional wisdom, rather then an impartial analyst.

He is writing about how Trump will lose to the Democrats....but he conveniently leaves out Sanders from his calculations.

He doesn't even bother to calculate how Sanders might do....Even if he had done that and demonstrated Sanders wold be weaker, at least he would be an honest analyst instead of a conventional wisdom shill.

[Codeine]

8. Sanders won't be in the general election.

Why would Mr. Silver waste his time making such a map?

[RockaFowler]

10. Because he's a Hillary Shrill

My goodness. This place used to love 538.com - now not so much

Oh and MMFA is no good either.

[Armstead]

16. When he was an actual objective analyst instead of another boring pundit

[Armstead]

12. Because it's still a primary, and the results might be interesting

They might show he'd be a weaker candidate against Trump....Or they might show that he's stronger... or about the same as Clinton.

People are still making decisions, and ignoring one of the two Democratic contestants befenits Clinton and is professional malpractice

[Surya Gayatri]

13. Bwaahaaaaaaa!

[Armstead]

14. Very mature and thoughtful reply...Makes my post look like a political science dissertation

[Surya Gayatri]

17. No, just bitter and baseless.

[Armstead]

18. Is that the new meme these days? " "bitter"

God forbid people might have legitimate reasons for being angry.

[Gothmog]

9. I love this map

[Codeine]

11. Indeed!!

So many nasty, bitter, angry little people are going to lose their minds when she becomes Madame President.

[Surya Gayatri]

15. We'll need to don hazmat suits around here to deal with

the toxic, poisonous atmosphere.

[bigwillq]

19. Fine by me.

CT stays solid blue (again). Hillary will win the presidency (which I am cool with) with or without my vote. It's a win win!

[shadowandblossom]

20. I heard Utah could flip if it's Clinton/Trump...

I wouldn't hold my breath, but apparently Mormons loathe him. And in fact, the only Mormon I've heard from on the subject will not under any condition vote for him and intends to vote for Clinton, if Trump is the nominee. That's a huge deal for this guy, in any other year, unthinkable. I will say to, the few Mormons that I've met are the nicest, politest, people you are likely to meet... Maybe that's part of why...


I like this, but I don't want to be overconfident because the stakes are so high. All of this could change pretty easily and Trumps public image can change between now and then, his strategies can change between now and then. Many peoples' attitudes could change between now and then.

[angrychair]

21. Don't completely agree

There are a lot of assumptions in that map.
For the sake of argument, let's assume it's reasonable accurate. My only changes would be:
Clinton
UT and MO

tRump
FL, GA, NC and maybe VA and OH

In that race above, VA and OH are you true toss-ups.

My map has Clinton still winning but a lot more narrowly than the above map:
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0wrnr0nr0nrwnxq