I ask again, is Hillary a weaker candidate than Kerry was in 04?

[Joe the Revelator]

Kerry is the blue on the map during the primaries. Look at all the states he carried against a large field!

And here Bernie is, picking off state vs state vs state.

Why can't Hillary close the deal??

[BillZBubb]

1. Hillary is a weaker candidate. But, the republican opponent will be weak too.

Hillary can't close the deal because almost half the party rejects the Third Way, conservaDem, "no we can't", negative baggage ridden candidate.

[grasswire]

3. if the ultimate nominee is Kasich, Hillary does even worse.

He's the only Republican beating her in the polls.

[TDale313]

7. My mom (a lifelong Dem) put it best.

Kasich's the scariest of them cause he can sound reasonable, at least comparatively. "We don't want him as their candidate. If I can actually stand to listen to him, even though I'd hate his policies- he's the one we don't want to be running against"

[mythology]

19. Which would necessarily mean that the converse is also true

That more than half the party is rejecting the guy from Vermont who called the Democratic Party ideologically bankrupt and said it would be hypocritical of him to run as a Democrat.

Although given Clinton's substantial lean in delegates and popular vote, it's not really close enough to say that nearly half the party rejects her. She's leading in the popular by more than 2.5 million votes, which is about a 3rd again of Sanders total. It's not that close.

[BillZBubb]

25. Nice spin. Keep posting the Hillary mythology.

All the conservative states have voted, so yeah, the conservaDem candidate has a big lead.

The polls all show a much closer race when all the states are considered.

I am a long time Democrat and I call the Democratic party ideologically bankrupt and have been doing so for years. It is. Ever since the DLC/Third Way people got control of the party, the Democratic party no longer stands for anything other than not being as bad as the republicans in kowtowing to big money interests. Sanders has been correct on that.

You also clearly don't understand the context of Sanders statement about running as a Democrat. That's not surprising as most Hillary fanatics don't really care about that.

The race really is that close. But keep your head in the sand.

[CorporatistNation]

29. So WHY Do We Want THIS When We Could Have The BEST! See This Post!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511586370

[virtualobserver]

2. She had to win Iowa and New Hampshire in order to gain an air of invincibility.

Once Kerry did that, the others were on life support.

[JonLeibowitz]

4. While I believe Bernie is the stronger candidate, it is a different story.

Traditionally the power brokers and moneyed elite used the early primaries to winnow their field from the list of pre-approved candidates.

This time around the primary continues because the DLC establishment doesn't want progressive ideas on the national stage.

[daleanime]

6. +1

[CorporatistNation]

30. TOTALLY! SEE THIS!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511586370

[TDale313]

5. I think Bernie's stronger than Howard Dean.

I say that as a former Dean supporter and a current Bernie supporter. I also think Hillary may have underestimated him until he'd already gained a foothold. The establishment took the legs out from under Howard in Iowa and that was pretty much that. This time by the time we left Iowa and NH this time the insurgent candidate had underperformed in Iowa and won by a huge amount in NH. Also, while the internet was a factor in 04, it's come leaps and bounds since then. The media blacks Bernie out? We go around them.

[ThePhilosopher04]

10. Besides the fact Bernie is a more sincere messenger, with a consistent message ...

Howard Dean didn't have the advantage of Twitter and Facebook to end run mainstream media. The old rules are out the window, that's why Bernie was so underestimated. The establishment didn't see it coming.

[basselope]

14. There was another reason.

I was a YUUUGE Dean supporter in 03/04. So, yes, you had the problem that the establishment sent Gephardt on a suicide mission to derail Dean in Iowa running hundreds of negative ads.

The problem was that not only did Dean take the bait... they swallowed it and pull all their eggs into the Iowa basket. The "Dean Scream" didn't help.. but that wasn't what sunk the ship.

I have letters from that time saved and I was (according to their campaign) the FIRST online donor. Got multiple letters from Dean directly in the early days thanking me for contributing, for helping to set up Meetup in Los Angeles. Hell, I was the person who reached out to Rob Reiner and convinced his people to get him to show up at the Dean meetups in LA. I was in deep.

One of the letters I got, a fundraising letter, explained how Dean, as a fiscal conservative, could run the entire primary on 20 million. That's all he felt he needed to raise to remain competitive. He raised a lot more than that going into Iowa.

Iowa was over and he came in 3rd and there was an emergency conference call. They were out of money. They blew more than that whole 20 million that was supposed to carry through the ENTIRE primary in a pissing match with Gephardt.

They then had to play from behind going forward. They couldn't put the resources into New Hampshire that they needed b/c they bet the farm on Iowa. They then basically ceded the next several states and raised money for a final stand in Wisconsin.. which they lost and then Dean dropped out.

I still don't forgive the DNC/DLC for sending Gephardt on the stop Dean movement.. but I also don't know why Joe Trippi took the bait the way he did and allowed them to sink it all in Iowa. I think maybe they believed with the Al Gore endorsement they couldn't be stopped... I don't know what went on in their minds, but when I was on that conference call the next day, I knew it was basically over, because his entire argument of being a fiscal conservative just went out the window.

[TDale313]

18. Great info and take. Thanks.

I think you're right about them taking the bait and they did stake everything on Iowa and lost. I did also hear about strategic caucusing by other candidates and their supporters to throw support to Edwards so Dean would come in third. It was pretty much over at that point. From the money standpoint, from the way the media played things. We all knew it.

There's a part of me that is kinda shocked how much further we have gotten with Bernie- for all the reasons talked about in this thread. But maybe the biggest part of that is the message. Bernie is several degrees further left than Howard and has a truly populist message the many across the political spectrum are just really hungry for.

[basselope]

20. I also think the timing is better for Bernie.

His message is better, but also so many people were heartbroken after Obama didn't turn out to be what he promised.

When single payer was taken "off the table".. when the public option was thrown out.. millions of people who bought into the Hope/Change message became completely disillusioned.

Dean, was, in many respects a single issue candidate. He was against the Iraq War from day 1 and couldn't comprehend how the democrats were fielding candidates who voted for it.

He had cred on health care and some cred with LGBT issues b/c of the civil unions in VT... but mostly, he was the democrats best shot that year of shifting things back away from the extreme right.

Obama brought with him the best opportunity for REAL change and then squandered the opportunities.

We now have that chance again and Bernie is the REAL deal.

[TDale313]

21. Yep. Absolutely. n/t

[CorporatistNation]

31. BERNIE IS OUR FINAL Opportunity For A Return To Legit Democracy... Otherwise Tightening CORPORATISM

SEE THIS! http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511586370

[The empressof all]

8. My personal observation and belief is

Hillary is a much weaker candidate than Kerry and carry's far more baggage than Obama did into the election. If she is the nominee and she does manage to win; her tenure will be fraught with back biting, smears and outrage from the right. They have finely tuned that song over the past eight years and won't be singing a different one with Clinton. I really don't see how she will manage to bring the country together with her history and the hatred towards her by a large swarth of the population. America is kind of insane right now and as much as many Democrats don't want to believe it...She isn't going to be able to get folks to circle the fire and sing Kumbaya.

[ibegurpard]

9. yes

A complete Republican implosion is the only hope if she wins the primary.

[sadoldgirl]

11. The repug party will do everything to choose

Kasich, and he knows it.

If they manage to do this, HRC will lose for sure.

[basselope]

13. If Trump gets the required number of delegates I don't think they will do this...

BUT, you will then see a Trump/Kasich ticket.

[basselope]

12. Weaker candidate... same result.

She has all the same problems as Kerry and none of the advantages.

She will get absolutely crushed if god forbid she becomes the democratic nominee

[Starry Messenger]

15. No.

Kerry was running against an incumbent war President, and for whatever stupid reason, Americans don't like to replace them midstream. I like Kerry and think he'd be a great President--but he also had Tad Devine as a campaign manager, as does Bernie...so?

[strategery blunder]

16. I actually Went There at the WA caucus today

And explained how, after Dean was Screamed, Kerry was the Electable One! Kerry was war vet (war on terra credibility being even more important in 2004 than it is now). Kerry was experienced, and so on...

Those all sound like the arguments that Hillary supporters are using today, hmm?

And then we got in the general, and fair or not, the "You were for the Iraq war before you were against it" did untold damage to his campaign, and helped significantly to doom us to 4 more years of overgrown shrubbery...

And how Donald Trump would come out and say, "Hillary, you negotiated the TPP before you were against it," and Hillary would have no credible refutation, and that would severely put states like MI, OH, maybe WI, PA, at risk...

2004 was the first primary where I was eligible to vote, and yes I voted Kerry both primary and general, and even though I'm only 30 and there were a lot of older people there (my caucus location was pretty bifurcated between young and old, with relatively few middle-aged I thought), I got a LOT of applause...even interrupted by it at times

[mythology]

17. You do understand that with a larger field, it's easier to win right?

The vote is more dispersed and so it takes a much lower percentage to win. Especially the other candidates aren't particularly strong. For example Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire with 38% of the vote.

But then there's this minor little point you somehow accidentally left out. On March 2nd, the last remaining candidates dropped out. At that point there were 26 primaries and caucuses left. So it's more than a little disingenuous to include those in your graph without noting that he won those 26 without having an opponent.

[Attorney in Texas]

22. In all fairness, Kerry was only stronger with Democrats, Independents and cross-over Republicans

Hillary is much more popular with neocons, the military-industrial complex, for-profit prisons, the pharmaceutical industry, Wall Street, etc.

[BillZBubb]

26. That is true. She does have her base of support.

[quantumjunkie]

23. Yes, she is clearly very weak

[MadBadger]

24. In 2008 Hillary was picking off state vs state vs state after his consecutive run in Feb and March.

Obama couldnt "close the deal."

Yet he took McCain to the woodshed in the GE.

Not related, not worried.

[BillZBubb]

28. Obama profitted greatly from the collapse of the financial system just before the GE.

That and w's piss poor approval rating. Obama was the change candidate. Hillary is the status quo candidate. Big difference.

[Renew Deal]

27. No. Kerry came with a lot of negative baggage. He was on all sides of every issue

Including "being for the war before he was against it." It was one of the most tone deaf things I've ever seen someone say.

[amborin]

32. much, much weaker; besides the quid pro quo behavior, owning Libya, war mongering, cronyism, flip fl

flopping on almost every issue, the emails have revealed the deceitful broken promises to voters; speaking of emails, there is the investigation hanging over everything; separately from all this are the many many lies