Of the remaining 22 contests in the Primary . . .

[Chichiri]

4 are caucuses, 9 are open, semi-open, or semi-closed primaries, and 9 are closed primaries.

Bernie is 10 for 14 in caucuses. The caucuses that remain give a total of 88 delegates.

Bernie is 4 for 17 in open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries (and there's really not a huge difference here, except that semis keep out Republicans). The open and semi-* primaries that remain give a total of 882 delegates.

Bernie is 1 for 4 in closed primaries, the one being Democrats Abroad. The closed primaries that remain give a total of 759 delegates.


#feelthemath

[JonLeibowitz]

1. Bernie may not win, I don't expect him to. The delegate math doesn't favor him.

He's still the better candidate on the issues, on his record, and on character. The Pacific states have seen through Hillary's facade of progressivism and given her a stinging rebuke.

All the Hillary spin in the world doesn't change those facts. I'm not sure what the point of these posts is except to try to demoralize progressives. Well, it won't work.

[Chichiri]

5. I consider myself more of a progressive than you do, in that I actually want to get things done. nt

[JonLeibowitz]

8. How do you know how much of a progressive I consider myself?

Anyway, my precise concern is that Clinton's policies she wants to "get done" are not actually progressive so I don't want her to get them done. Fracking, neo-conservative foreign policy, neoliberal economics, wavering on oil pipelines, trade policy, etc etc.

[Chichiri]

10. I will never not post this in response.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/hillary-clinton-was-liberal-hillary-clinton-is-liberal/

[JonLeibowitz]

16. Is Hillary Clinton a progressive?

Is making the act of flag burning a felony progressive?

Is dismissing free speech advocates by saying "the usual people are going to complain about the 1st amendment" in response to talk about legislating strong encryption progressive?

Is an interventionist foreign policy progressive?

Is free trade progressive? What about allowing enough wiggle room with claimed opposition to the TPP to allow you to support it in the end (as the business community expects her to) after the primary (that would be what we call lying) ? Is that progressive?

Is it progressive to state that marriage is a sacred bond between a man and a woman? Is it progressive to advocate for Mother/Father on State documents rather than Parent 1/2 or Guardian 1/2 ?

Is receiving huge contributions from the industries you will be regulating progressive?

Is siding with your corporate donors in the credit industry progressive when your actions hurt single mothers progressive?

Is receiving money from lobbyists of the private prison industry progressive?

Is it progressive to want those who possess marijuana (which has no known negative health effects) to be put in prison, even when their state deems it legal? What about when your private prison industry lobbyists stand to gain from a higher incarceration rate?

Is it progressive to vote for the PATRIOT act, repeatedly?

Is it progressive to vote against banning the use of cluster bombs which maim and kill innocent children?

Is it progressive to say that a single payer health care system will never ever happen, even though that or something like it (public option) is the only way to get to universal healthcare?

The Democratic party is not progressive. Her being a mainstream Democrat doesn't make her progressive.

[Chichiri]

32. I'm not going to argue the trees. The forest is right there. nt

[JonLeibowitz]

38. That IS the forest!

[Chichiri]

43. No, that's a Rove-shaped crater. Look behind you. nt

[JonLeibowitz]

48. Every issue I described is to Hillary's (and Rove's) left. I don't see how Rove has any relevance.

[VulgarPoet]

89. Don't bother.

You're not going to get through to someone who thinks those issues are just "trees" as opposed to the forest.

[laserhaas]

103. Concur

Need not argue with hell bents

[Perogie]

64. ha ha ha

I'm not going to argue when you use facts to counteract my opinion article.

That's a good one. I'll have to remember it.

[kaleckim]

102. Of course she isn't

My god, she and her husband were the two most instrumental people in dragging their party to the right in the 1980's and the 1990's. They rose up with Walmart money, raked in billions in Wall Street and corporate cash since taking office, got their party to turn away from organized labor, fought hard to gut social programs that helped the poor (and bragged about it for years afterwards), fought hard for austerity, fought hard for the WTO, NAFTA, gutting the New Deal financial regulations, "school choice", among countless other things. She has a horribly hawkish foreign policy, on full display recently at AIPAC. She is "progressive" in that she is decent on social issues, libertarians largely are as well. She is right wing in regards to institutional power and economics and always has been. Her followers are largely well off and could give a damn about the impact of the trade model she supports, so that's good enough.

[TrueDemVA]

12. No offense, but

Are you sure you understand what it is to be a progressive? If you were more progressive, why support Hillary? Her record reflects someone that tends to be a conservative and not liberal or progressive at all.
My fear is the only things she will get done would be thjngs like wrist slap legislation against banks, that will be tough in name only or fully embrace TPP or neglect strengthening social safety net programs. Those are just a few. Another would be her hawkish record.

[Chichiri]

13. Again.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/hillary-clinton-was-liberal-hillary-clinton-is-liberal/

[Ghost Dog]

22. I'm sorry, but that is unconvincing. n/t

[Chichiri]

26. Some people don't want to be convinced. nt

[HumanityExperiment]

52. HRC is republican light...

HRC and her ever shifting positions are well documented, she's all in for political expediency

She's no liberal, nor progressive, this is all easily provable as she's pulled to the left from her republican light leanings

[redstateblues]

31. Smears. Hillary was one of the most liberal Senators

In Congress. Calling her a conservative is total bullshit.

[brush]

39. Clinton and Sanders agree on 90% of the issues

[JonLeibowitz]

47. False. Prove it. Hint: Voting 90% of the time the same way doesn't work,

unless you think a vote on naming a post office is equally as important as voting on a foreign war.

[brush]

71. You prove that they don't. It's in the congressional record

I never voted for a candidate that agrees with me on everything.

I would bet that you don't agree with Sanders' positions on everything.

[JonLeibowitz]

72. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1588867

They differ on many of the issues most important to me. Since they are all somewhat major issues, I doubt they are only 10%.

[brush]

75. Guns is a major issue.

[JonLeibowitz]

77. So do they agree on guns? Or are you using guns to argue against your own claim about 90%?

[brush]

79. I'm sure you know they don't agree on guns

My points was, as progressive as Sanders is, most progressives don't agree with him on his gun positions, and probably other stances, but still support him even though Clinton's position on that is closer to theirs.

That brings us back to the 90% they are in agreement on and their 10% differences.

I will vote for either one who wins the nomination and find those that sit home, go 3rd party or vote repug instead of one or the other abhorrent.

[JonLeibowitz]

81. Yes, Hillary wants companies which legally sell firearms to be held responsible.

An absurd position.

I'm glad we agree they disagree on much more than 10%, which was your original claim. I posted a long list of positions she has. Do you disagree with her position on any of those? Is guns the only reason you oppose Bernie?

(I will be voting my conscience in November, I never stay home; not sure what that has to do with the topic under discussion though which is that Hillary is not a progressive)

[brush]

82. I didn't agree that they differ much more than 10% on issues

You didn't post a long list of Bernie's positions to make a comparison.

As far as voting you conscience, I hope that means voting blue as I find those who hold the opposite position not worth the bother.

[JonLeibowitz]

83. Bernie is on the opposite side of each and every one of those in the list.

[thesquanderer]

92. They are actually not that far apart on guns.

The NRA gives one of them an F and the other a D-. Hardly polar opposites. Sanders has voted against assault weapons bans, too. Sure you can find a couple of places they diverge, but overall, they're basically on the same side of the issue. As with everything else, Hillary morphs a bit depending on political expediency. Remember in 2008, when she went after Obama on guns, and he came back against her saying that suddenly she's Annie Oakley? Then she ran to someone's right on guns, now she's running to someone's left... and they're all more or less in the same place.

[Hoyt]

55. There are people here who believe gunz everywhere is a progressive cause. The term is

meaningless unless one can move us closer to the ultimate goal. The majority of voters believe Sanders will not.

[TrueDemVA]

58. That's one

Guns. A guy who lives in a rural state.

[JonLeibowitz]

63. If you introduce an amendment to the constitution I will support it.

Anything else jeopardizes every other amendment in the bill of rights since attacking the power of the constitution to restrain the government's influence on our liberties is not progressive.

[Hoyt]

70. Supreme Court says gunz can be regulated. In fact, even racist gun supporter Scalia only supported

gunz in home. Let gun fanciers keep them there. We'd be much better off without people toting on our streets

[ThePhilosopher04]

34. Caving isn't getting things done. It's caving.

[Chichiri]

84. No, getting things done is getting things done. Bernie will accomplish zero. nt

[quaker bill]

80. Getting things "done" is not all it is cracked up to be

George W. Bush was able to "get things done". Ms. Clinton even supported him doing so.

I would prefer to fail attempting to get the right thing done than succeed any number of times at getting the wrong things done.

Invading Iraq was not progressive, but it did get done, and Ms. Clinton supported it.

[kaleckim]

101. Explain how she will get things done

I am so sick and tired of this talking point. The Republicans hate her and her husband more than anyone in the country. Look at what they've done to her recently, and she isn't even in office. Think they don't have dirt ready to go on her foundation, her Wall Street speeches, and tons else?

So, explain the logic as to how Clinton "gets things done". She would "get things done" in one situation, if she gave away the store. If she went along with privatizing Social Security (like her husband was in the process of doing when the Lewinsky affair broke), she'll "get things done". Otherwise, there is no logical reason why she would get anything done that anyone other than a well-off, out of touch bourgeois "liberal" would appreciate.

[Smarmie Doofus]

60. +1. It was never a campaign as much as a movement.

If he "wins" that's great.... and it's still quite possible, the propaganda of the jittery opposition to the contrary notwithstanding.

If he plants the seed, changes the nature of the dialogue, ignites a reawakening: that's even *BETTER*.

As usual... his detractors miss the point. Just how many synonyms for "fucking OBTUSE" are there in this English language of ours?

[virtualobserver]

2. if Bernie wins New York....all bets are off

[blueintelligentsia]

3. MICHIGAN 2.0 times ten. n/t

[virtualobserver]

4. Team Hillary's "math" is actually a house of cards.

[Chichiri]

6. In what way? nt

[virtualobserver]

15. practically every point that you are making.....

and some that you aren't making....they all hinge upon New York.

She was a Senator from New York, and she won New York in 2008, New York is a closed primary, the state is 58% white.


If she loses NY....there is no possible way to spin it as OK.

Don't forget....He is Bernie from Brooklyn, and he is the most trusted politician in America.

[Ghost Dog]

24. This is the crux if the matter.

Presumably, on-the-ground campaigning will be intense.

Forsooth, Ms. Clinton may even decide it necessary to open her campaign events to the public, allowing some hoi polloi to approach the gilded one... (ref: hillary group http://www.democraticunderground.com/110783673 )

[Chichiri]

27. Oh, so if Bernie wins New York, he'll sweep everything like he did after Michigan.

Oh, wait . . .

[bettyellen]

7. and Hillary herself is none other than Claire Underwood?

I am starting to think a lot of people watch too much TV for their own good.

[blueintelligentsia]

9. Umm....you're just starting the think that? n/t

[bettyellen]

11. I spit beer out my nose from someone saying that the other night. I've met a few people who

get the Bush and Clinton confused. It is pretty fucking funny, actually.

[Warren DeMontague]

18. I found the GOP slate

[bettyellen]

20. HA! My friend claims they were a super talented band under all that fur!

[Warren DeMontague]

23. Yeah, Mike Nesmith was actually a real, talented musician too.

But, he got stuck being a Monkee anyway.

[bettyellen]

25. He had the advantage of that Liquid Paper trust fund though. Wasn't it Dolenz who hung out

with Hendrix and a bunch of crazy hardcore LA musicians? I thought I'd seen some pics.

[Warren DeMontague]

42. I didn't know Nesmith was an heir to liquid paper. Too weird.

[bettyellen]

50. Yes, his mom Betty was a typist and cooked it up in her kitchen. I think he inherited way after he

was famous though. So he was not actually a Trustifarian, but a true artist. My bad.

[Warren DeMontague]

65. He was also responsible, in part, for "Repo Man" IIRC

One of the truly great movies of the 80s.

[bettyellen]

69. Oh yeah! Gosh it has been years since I've seen that. Google Dolenz + Alice Cooper or

Linda Lovelace for a blast from the past. Funny stuff!

[Warren DeMontague]

87. damn. All I can say is, anybody who partied with Keith Moon wasn't on the amateur circuit

noooooooo, they were playing in the pro leagues.

[bettyellen]

88. Yeah, and Nilsson.... makes you wonder about Ann Murray....

Snowbird was probably her code name.

[virtualobserver]

19. Claire is far more competent.....she would never make the mistakes Hillary has made.

Claire is scary.

[VulgarPoet]

91. I think "House of Cards" is an excellent motif for her campaign.

[CorporatistNation]

14. What is Not Being Taken Into Account On The Numbers Point Is The GROWING BERNIE MOMENTUM...

The wave is gathering a little steam... Supers are going to have to rethink their position... If he is even remotely close he needs to take it all the way to THE CONVENTION! The people are on Bernie's side... And WE WILL SPEAK LOUD AND CLEAR!

[metroins]

62. Lol. Nt

[Warren DeMontague]

17. I think geography is far more of a factor than the things you mention.

Why do you suppose Hillary has fared poorly in, for instance, WA, AK and CO?

...Any ideas?

[Chichiri]

30. Either they're white caucus states, or whatever Hillary-sucks reason you're thinking of.

More likely the former.

[Warren DeMontague]

33. Well I guess when Oregon votes by mail, we'll know for sure.

In my experience, though, the Manhattan and Beltway conventional wisdom people have very little understanding of the US west of the Rockies.

The fact that you don't see the connection between WA, AK and CO immediately is a glaring example of what I'm talking about.

[Chichiri]

35. Mountains? nt

[Warren DeMontague]

36. You should get out more, I think.

[Chichiri]

37. Okay, I give. What is it?

[Warren DeMontague]

40. Just out of curiosity, what part of the country are you in?

[Chichiri]

41. Minnesota. nt

[Warren DeMontague]

44. Ah.

[Chichiri]

45. Well? nt

[Warren DeMontague]

53. WA, AK, CO & OR have all legalized marijuana for recreational use.

CA is likely to in November as well, bringing lots more people into the polls.

People who underestimate the importance of this issue on the West Coast are doing their understanding of political reality a disservice.

Hillary Clinton, while certainly not as noxious as Chris Christie on the matter, has steadfastly avoided addressing real reform beyond changing the scheduling federally from I to II (which would still leave the conflict btw federal and state law intact, with both recreational and medical users in legal states at the mercy of any future DOJ deciding to prosecute them) - in fact, when asked about the topic in the debates, HRC would clumsily pivot to "the heroin addiction problem"

...whereas Sanders has come out for federal descheduling as well as directly calling the drug war a "failure", which it is.

This issue is more important to voters out west than, again, the beltway conventional wisdom nabobs - who like to pretend it is a big joke - give it credit for. Add to that the fact that CO is an important electoral swing state. Hillary needs to do better.

[Chichiri]

54. Ah, okay. Thanks. nt

[basselope]

21. Pretty much favors Bernie at this point

[Chichiri]

29. How in the world do you figure that? nt

[Ghost Dog]

49. Logic,

little wings, and good connections with Pacha Mama.

[Chichiri]

51. Oh. Well, I'm convinced! nt

[Ghost Dog]

56. Cool.

sorry, but someone mentioned Hendrix above...

[basselope]

57. Look at the regions they are moving into.

[Chichiri]

78. . . . . yes? Go on? nt

[KingFlorez]

46. The caucuses are over

Those were his best environment and with those behind him it actually gets harder. As we've seen, closed primaries are not his friend since he has an issue winning registered and self-identified Democrats.

[basselope]

59. You're completing ignoring the regions.

The nice thing about these later contests is that the Bernie organization has had time to work on getting people registered and now that he is solidly outraising Clinton month over and month he has the organization.

Further, with States like Wisconsin, PA, CT, NY ahead, we are moving into solid Bernie country.

[KingFlorez]

67. And they are not caucuses

And no, they can't be changed to caucuses at the last minute, so let's get that out the way first.

He could win Wisconsin, but if it's by less that 60-70%, he's not going to get a whole lot of delegates out of there. Pennsylvania has similar demographics to Ohio, Connecticut is similar to Massachusetts and New York is Clinton's home state. That's not solid Bernie country, dear. Those are closed primaries and he has a big issue with winning Democrats. Independents can't rescue him in the Northeast states coming up.

[basselope]

73. So what?

I think you are VASTLY underestimating the momentum and money advantage Bernie now has.

New York is Bernie's home state moreso than Clinton's.

The Bernie campaign has been calling independents and getting them to register as democrats for months now.

Wait and see.

[KingFlorez]

85. Clinton repped New York in the Senate for 8 years

Sanders hasn't lived in that state for decades. Not exactly a home state advantage over a former Senator who resides in the state.

[basselope]

86. She repped it for 8 years.. which will greatly help Sanders.

New Yorkers got to know her quite well.

They is a huge advantage for Sanders.

[VulgarPoet]

90. Saturday morning, Camp Weathervane was denouncing momentum

and referring to it as "fauxmentum". They can't be argued with from a place of policy or possibilities anymore.

[bravenak]

28. He really has barely any chance at all.

Must be why superdelegates are being told what they need to do to make it easier for him.

[Thinkingabout]

66. Agreed, lots of pressure on the Super Delegates. I would have thought the time

To convince the super delegates has passed. The relationships would have been created in Congress over the years

[bravenak]

74. Most people seem to make quite a few friends

In forty years or so

[Lucinda]

61. KNR

[Cheese Sandwich]

68. yeah that wasn't math

[Chichiri]

76. I'll just leave this here.

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/mathematics

[HumanityExperiment]

93. 56%...

the percentage needed from the following 22 primaries left...

Odd that HRC supporters are unwilling to state that since clearly 'MATH' is critical to them at this point in the primary process

Or has the 'math' meme losing it's steam?

[Chichiri]

94. 56.5%, to be exact.

Hillary's percentage is 43.6%. (It adds up to 100.1% because there are a few instances of rounding in my spreadsheet.) I post that figure every day in the Hillary group.

[HumanityExperiment]

95. Ahh ok, now you're 'exact'...

"I post that figure every day in the Hillary group"

Are we in the HRC group? didn't think so... odd you would be so specific there and not here in GD-P

Hmmm, why would you do that I wonder???

[Chichiri]

96. Well for a while I posted it in both Hillary's group and GDP.

But from what I can tell, nobody but Hillary supporters seem to appreciate my work, and it quickly falls under the radar in GDP. So I gave up posting it here.

If you can show me that it would be worthwhile to resume posting it in GDP, I'll happily resume.

[HumanityExperiment]

97. Face the full facts...

Pretty simple, posting full facts matters

[Chichiri]

98. And I do, for people who appreciate them.

Do you appreciate them?

Here's a link to today's post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/110784331

[HumanityExperiment]

99. HRC group...

I don't follow HRC group

I follow the post you placed in GD-P and that is the point

Have a good day

[Chichiri]

100. Well it's always posted on my journal, so you can find it there.

And if enough Bernie supporters ask me to, I'll start posting it in here again as well.