Josh Dyck, Director at the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell did some math today

[Godhumor]

Standard disclaimer, Josh is a RL friend of mine.

From his Facebook feed:

Just re-ran some projections based on Sanders' wins yesterday for those who are curious... posted without commentary or a strong rooting interest.

If Sanders wins less than 35% of the remaining delegates available through primaries/caucuses, Clinton will achieve 2382 among the so-called "pledged delegates." If he wins 35-57% of delegates, he will stop Clinton from outright winning the nomination among pledged delegates, but will still trail her going to the convention (and she is way ahead in superdelegates and there will be no incentive for them to flip). The magic number for Bernie is 58% -- that puts him ahead of Clinton in pledged delegates. Finally, if he wins 81% of the remaining delegates, he will get to 2382 without superdelegates.

----

So there's the math. Make of it what you will.

[virtualobserver]

1. if he keeps winning with 70 percent or greater......

will there be fewer Team Hillary math exercises?

[Godhumor]

3. Josh isn't a Hillary supporter n/t

[virtualobserver]

7. Josh didn't post this here....you did.

This "math" is posted multiple times a day here on DU.....

What I'm asking, rhetorically, is if the math starts turning against Hillary....will fewer math updates be provided?

[Godhumor]

11. My whole schtick here is math and analysis

So, no, I seriously doubt I'll stop posting about it even if it favors Bernie--It will just become analyses of how hard it would be for Clinton to regain momentum or how easy it would be for Bernie to keep it.

[virtualobserver]

12. Then I stand corrected

[Godhumor]

14. It is easy to say it, harder to do it

I'm sure my analyses if Bernie actually pulls even would be more of the panicky "Hillary still clearly got this" type, at least for awhile.

[virtualobserver]

16. I won't fault you for that...

Personally, I am a believer in momentum. Usually momentum builds behind the anointed candidate, but there is a built in vulnerability in being the person who "should" win if the tables are turned.

Bernie has had to expend a great deal of energy and money to overcome the built in advantages.

I also believe in numbers, but the number that I have been watching is the national poll number for Bernie.
Not so much whether he is ahead or not, but what his number has been.

As the months have passed, his number has moved slowly upward from the single digits to the mid to high 40's.

As he continues to campaign from state to state, he is exposing himself to more and more people. Literally half the states remain, and as he continues through them, I believe that his number continues to rise. Bernie message is like a meme, and as more people are exposed, they will embrace that meme

If by early may, the polls have Bernie at 52-54% and Hillary at 42-44% , although that does not win him the nomination, it becomes an additional problem for Hillary. Both the polls and the coverage of his wins build additional momentum, and if they are very close at the end of June, but Bernie is up by 15 in the polls, it will be hard for Hillary to argue for the nomination.

On the flip side, If Hillary wins big in NY....and the states just beyond that...she blunts Bernie's momentum....and it becomes very difficult. I won't give up if he loses NY, but it is very important.

[JackRiddler]

15. Actually, they may be a plot to sabotage Clinton

Math, particle physics, entomology and geology have all decided that Clinton has already won and everyone's stupid to think otherwise. So why bother to vote for Clinton?

[blueintelligentsia]

2. 58% was the number before yesterday.....

...how has it not changed? This needs some splaining to do, like the CNN 71% reporting number that was stagnant for hours....well its similarish.

[Live Bait]

5. Pay no attention to that "genius".

The numbers Bernie needs to sustain a win went down to 56%. Bernie can win the rest of the states, and not need California to finish Clinton.

Wisconsin is Bernie's.

[blueintelligentsia]

8. Let's hope the recall Scott Walker movement...

...is helping him towards victory.

[noretreatnosurrender]

4. GOTV People

Let's shoot for the 81%. If we fall short we're still in the sweet spot!

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Yup agrees with mine

thanks for the double check

The way I phrased it is that the map opened slightly, but it is still a very difficult map, and CA this year might matter.

My only quibble is that I think the magic number RIGHT NOW is closer to 54 percent, but he needs to over perform in a few states to truly change the dynamic of the race at the delegate level. The math is what it is.

We could , and no I have not speculated on this, I need a couple more contests, get to a floor fight because neither gets the PDs.

[ibegurpard]

9. thank you

All of this "he can't win because of math" bullshit is really fucking irritating. It's not likely but it's certainly possible.

[CalvinballPro]

10. Only a handful of caucuses left, good luck with all that. nt

[veronique25]

13. bernie voters: keep EMAILING YOUR SUPERDELEGATES

with all due respect:

hillary's superdelegates were amassed BEFORE ANY VOTING!

that is not the WILL OF THE PEOPLE!

and even if bernie is within striking distance at convention time: superdelegates are free to change their allegiance at any time, for any reason -- based on who they think will be best for the democratic party

bernie voters: please continue emailing superdelegates with your reasons why bernie sanders is the future of the democratic party

most superdelegates also need to be re-elected, and they are very amenable to reason!

here is the wiki link to all democratic superdelegates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016



win or lose, bernie's AMERICA rules!


The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark.

Lord, grant that I may always desire more than I can accomplish.

-- michelangelo

[PATRICK]

17. If Sanders gets a clear plurality

of the votes nationwide and first place in many states and in steady progress from anonymity to headier numbers, THAT is the math that should be brought to bear on any delegates who want their party to thrive in the fall and look "democratic" to the people they would represent. It is a gift to the GOP if a minority elected nominee faces off against a hard-knuckled populist whose votes counted for something. It is more than the delegate count game which is NOT impressing the American people as the model of fairness. Is Sanders a Trump who will destroy the values of the party? Or is the jaded nature of some of the questionable superdelegates the party's Trump cards in hiding?

The voters have their own more logical and just math and incredibly who is championing having all their votes both elicited and fairly counted? This is why this has been a grueling test for Sanders. One he has passed. Ah, but can he win the game by its croquet type rules?

[superkona]

18. and since march 15th he's had an average of..

70%