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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But He’s About To Run Out Of Them
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/...
So why is Sanders doing better in caucuses than primaries? The most obvious answer is that caucuses reward candidates with diehard supporters. There are often speeches, and sometimes multiple rounds of voting at caucuses. Typically, you have to stick around for a while to vote. That takes devotion, and if youve ever met a Sanders fan, youll know that many would climb over hot coals to vote for him.
Sanderss strength in caucuses may also be, in part, coincidental. Every state that has held or will hold a Democratic caucus this year has a black population at or below 10 percent of the states total population, and black voters have been among Clintons strongest demographic groups. Without those black voters, Clinton just cant match the enthusiasm of Sanderss backers. (In Southern states, where Clinton romped, her voters were far more enthusiastic than Sanderss supporters were.)
Now, I know what some of you are thinking: How do we know that Sanderss big wins this week arent a sign that something more fundamental about the Democratic race has changed? We dont, necessarily. But look at the calendar: Sanders also outperformed his delegate targets in Colorado, Kansas and Maine earlier this month, and he still went on to suffer big losses on March 15. And that was after his shocking Michigan victory. Moreover, Sanders greatly underperformed his delegate targets last Tuesday in Arizona, which held a primary and has a more diverse electorate.
...
Most likely, Sanders will need to find another way to make up ground on Clinton in the delegate race. Wyoming (April 9) and North Dakota (June 7) are the only remaining stateside caucuses. The rest of the stateside races are primaries. Sanders has exceeded his delegate targets in just three stateside primaries. Hes matched them in three and underperformed in 15. Given that Sanders is still so far behind in the delegate count, he needs to outperform his delegate targets by a lot.
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Bernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But He’s About To Run Out Of Them (Original Post)
Onlooker
Mar 2016
OP
MADem
(135,425 posts)1. Good article. nt
Fairgo
(1,571 posts)2. Yeah, its a fluke
one fluke after another...
ericson00
(2,707 posts)3. BUMP
KNR