2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDelegate Math 3/28/16
Needed to win nomination: 2,383
Hillary Clinton: 1,712 (includes 469 superdelegates)
Bernie Sanders: 1,004 (includes 29 superdelegates)
Not yet allocated: 2,049
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/
The Math
HRC 2383 - 1712 = 671 671/2049 = .33 (approximately) So HRC needs 33% of the remaining delegates to win
Bernie 2383 - 1004 = 1379 1379/2049 = .67 (approximately) So Bernie needs 67% of the remaining delegates to win
Gothmog
(144,005 posts)Botany
(70,291 posts)NY State might put HRC very close
291 total delegate votes - 163 district / 54 at large; 30 Pledged PLEOs; 44 Unpledged PLEOs
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-D
Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)Bernies staff has conceded that they need to change the minds of about 200 super delegates.
His only hope is to narrow her lead in pledged delegates to under 100 by California on June 7.
In the meantime, he will be lobbying supers in states/districts that voted big for Bernie.
The argument being that they should switch allegiance from Hillary to Bernie based on how their state/district voted.
This is a very long shot, imho, but it is the only shot Bernie has.
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)HRC supporters are very concerned / scared about the rising momentum and excitement Bernie's campaign is creating...
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Sanders probably won't end up with much more than 1800 pledged delegates, while Clinton will end up with nearly 2200. She won't need more than 200 superdelegates to put her over the top. As far as I'm concerned, there shouldn't be superdelegates and the winner is whoever gets a majority of pledged delegates. If it's super close (2026-2025, let's say), then I could see superdelegates getting involved. But that won't be the case this year.
casperthegm
(643 posts)I'm not sure if those who post the delegate count in this manner are trying to dissuade those who don't understand how the system works or if they don't understand how it works themselves.
This is especially true of the media. I can't watch CNN any longer. Either the reporters are uninformed or they are purposely misleading when it comes to the delegate count. Either way, it's unacceptable to air the "news" in this fashion. Finding unbiased media is becoming quite a challenge.
Land of Enchantment
(1,217 posts)
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4c2gs6/alaska_hawaii_and_washington_caucuses_results/
Botany
(70,291 posts)n/t
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)an HRC meme and is dumb to even post.
Botany
(70,291 posts)From what I understand super delegates tend to go to party insiders and or
to the person who looks to like they will win the nomination.
I hope I am proven wrong but from where I sit the #s look much better for HRC.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)and that is down. Just watch
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)At which point her delegate lead will go right back up to where it was, if not higher.
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)But that's still not a good reason to count super delegates as "done deals." Basically, all the SD have done so far is announced their preference, made an endorsement. But their votes are in play right up to the day of the convention. If Sanders has a late surge, or if he is seen as more electable, or if Hillary has a legal cloud hanging over her, they could flip on a dime in July.