Ted Devine conceded "it would not be enough" IF superdelegates from states he won voted for Sanders

[riversedge]

Ted Devine conceded "it would not be enough" IF superdelegates from states he won voted for Sanders

X-posted:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=edit&forum=1107&thread=84352


Greg Sargent usually writes hit pieces on Hillary..I almost did not read this column. His title is misleading --Should be a Hail Mary Pass ---by the POPE himself!

Sanders needs to be honest with his donors --in all those emails we read about out there.




Sanders’s plan to win nomination by flipping super-delegates is a long shot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/28/sanderss-plan-to-win-nomination-by-flipping-super-delegates-is-a-long-shot/

By Greg Sargent March 28 at 1:26 PM

(Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Fresh off of his big wins on Saturday, Bernie Sanders appeared on the Sunday shows to make two emphatic points about what’s next in his quest to overcome what still looks like a daunting delegate lead enjoyed by Hillary Clinton. She currently leads him by around 675 delegates total — pledged and un-pledged delegates together — and she needs to win barely more than a third of remaining delegates to clinch the nomination, while Sanders would need two-thirds of them.

First, Sanders said on CNN that he and his campaign will try to persuade un-pledged delegates — so-called “super-delegates,” who decide independent of the voting — to flip from supporting Clinton to supporting him instead, on the grounds that he is the more electable candidate in November.

Second, and more narrowly, Sanders also said on CNN that super-delegates in states that he won will feel pressure to support him, rather than Clinton, in order to honor the will of those states’ voters.

The problem with this second claim is that, even if it actually happened, it all but certainly would not make a difference to the outcome.

David Wasserman, who tracks the delegate math for the Cook Political Report, calculates that even if you awarded Sanders all of the super-delegates in the states he has won so far, it would still not be enough to overcome Clinton’s lead among super-delegates. That’s because many of the states that Sanders won are caucus states — with fewer super-delegates — while many of the states Clinton won have far more super-delegates.



“If you gave Bernie all of the super-delegates in the states he’s won, it wouldn’t be enough to reverse her super-delegate lead,” Wasserman tells me.

The math on this checks out. According to figures provided by the Democratic National Committee, here are the numbers of super-delegates in the states Sanders has won so far: New Hampshire (8). Colorado (12). Minnesota (16). Oklahoma (4). Vermont (10). Kansas (4). Nebraska (5). Maine (5). Michigan (17). Idaho (4). Utah (4). Alaska (4). Hawaii (10). Washington State (17). Democrats abroad (4).

The total number of super-delegates in all the states Sanders has won thus far is: 124. Clinton currently leads Sanders by 469-29 among super-delegates who have declared support for one candidate or the other, an advantage of 440. Giving Sanders all of those super-dels in states he won would not come close to closing that gap.



Tad Devine, a top strategist on the Sanders campaign, conceded to me that even if that scenario came to pass, it would not be enough. “She still has a very significant lead,” Devine told me. “She started off with a huge advantage in super delegates.”...........

[MineralMan]

1. And most of those would not switch in any case.

I'm from Minnesota. I can't think of a single one of our elected superdelegates who would switch. The rest are DNC members, and they seem unlikely to switch, either.

Here are three of MN's superdelegates I'm sure would not switch: Al Franken, Amy Klobuchar and Betty McCollum. I've met and talked to those three. The rest, I do not know at firsthand, but I do know their politics.

Minnesota's superdelegates are going to vote as they say they will. They've endorsed Hillary, except for one, Keith Ellison, who has endorsed Bernie. I doubt there will be any movement from any of them.

[NWCorona]

5. Has Collin Peterson or R.T Rybak pledged their support yet?

[bravenak]

2. Yep

She does much better in primaries, and the caucuses are soon to be far behind us.

[riversedge]

8. Primaries left: 17 Caucuses left: 2

Icymi

Primaries left: 17 Caucuses left: 2

Beautiful Tweet to start the week


Mark Harris Verified account
‏@MarkHarrisNYC

Primary wins: Clinton 16, Sanders 4
Caucus wins: Sanders 9, Clinton 2
Primaries left: 17
Caucuses left: 2

[bravenak]

9. That's why it was a relief just to get the last three over with

Now we can take it home...

[NWCorona]

3. True

But there's a big point being missed. We are still voting and Bernie is getting stronger by every measure

Hillary not so much.

[CajunBlazer]

11. The last few states were known to be favorable to Sanders

Sanders may have a shot in Wisconsin (it should be close, but a "virtual tie will not helps Sanders, and maybe Wyoming with its few delegates. However, after that the primaries move to the Northeast were Bernie is going to get crushed:

New York, closed primary – 291 Delegates - Clinton is 48 points ahead in the latest poll,
Connecticut, closed primary – 70 Delegates - Clinton is 19 points ahead in the latest poll,
Maryland, closed primary – 118 Delegates - Clinton is 31 points ahead in the latest poll,
Pennsylvania, closed primary – 210 Delegates - Clinton is 25 points ahead in the latest poll.

That's 689 delegates at stake in just those four states. And remember, even if by some miracle Sanders could pull even in each of those four state, it wouldn't help. He has to win big in every state left on the calendar.

You may be "still voting" but the writing on the wall is growing every clearer with the conclusion of every primary and caucus. Maybe you just need to get your eyes checked.

[NWCorona]

13. My eye's are fine

Let's check back April 20th and see where we are at.

[geek tragedy]

4. if Sanders wins the most pledged delegates, he'll be the nominee

can he win NY, PA, CA, MD, DE, CT by 15% each?

We'll see soon enough

[CajunBlazer]

12. Yes we will, but I don't see it...

New York, closed primary – 291 Delegates - Clinton is 48 points ahead in the latest poll,
Connecticut, closed primary – 70 Delegates - Clinton is 19 points ahead in the latest poll,
Maryland, closed primary – 118 Delegates - Clinton is 31 points ahead in the latest poll,
Pennsylvania, closed primary – 210 Delegates - Clinton is 25 points ahead in the latest poll.

[geek tragedy]

14. the Clinton +48 NY poll is crap, Siena poll is much better, shows her up by 20

Sanders will get 40-45% here, but he'll have a tough time doing any better than that

I certainly wouldn't bet any amount of money, at any odds, on Sanders at this point.

[CajunBlazer]

15. The other slightly older NY poll (Siena) has Clinton winning by 21 points

Source RealClearPolitics.com

The average of the two polls is Clinton by 34.5% which is probably more accurate. Based on the relative accuracies of these two polls, Nate Silver is giving Clinton a 67.4% chance of winning NY.

But what the worse happens and Bernie moved up to a virtual tie with Hillary, big deal! Bernie needs to win this delegate rich state "big". That's not going to happen.

[geek tragedy]

16. There's no way he wins this state big.

I think it'll be around what Clinton vs Obama was. Which would net Clinton around 40-50 delegates.

That would be the end of the campaign.

[CajunBlazer]

18. We'll see - one thing for sure Berine won't be winning NY by the margin he needs to survive

[Gothmog]

6. Sander will not be successful in flipping super delegates

[bigtree]

7. so his full of shit plan to make like a delegate rout isn't the end of his campaign

...is a bust.

[riversedge]

10. It is

pretty close to a bust.


Primaries left: 17 Caucuses left: 2

[mhatrw]

17. If Sanders wins more overall delegates than she does, she will be seen as the regional candidate

Last edited Tue Mar 29, 2016, 02:02 PM - Edit history (1)

that she is. Despite every advantage in name recognition and media coverage, her corporate Demopublicanism only plays in the deep red Bible belt.

[CajunBlazer]

19. You obviously have not been paying attention to rest of the thread

Bernie about to be embarrassed in the North East. In fact in all the remaining 18 states, he is ahead substantially (12 points) in only one and is about even in one more, and is WAY BEHIND in several big delegate states.

Remember, he needs to average winning each of these 18 states by wide margins. The remaining states are just not feeling the burn.

[mhatrw]

20. These polls have been dead wrong before.

Clinton forged her +300 delegate lead entirely in the Deep South. There are no more Deep South states left on the calendar.