2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But ...
...Now, I know what some of you are thinking: How do we know that Sanderss big wins this week arent a sign that something more fundamental about the Democratic race has changed? We dont, necessarily. But look at the calendar: Sanders also outperformed his delegate targets in Colorado, Kansas and Maine earlier this month, and he still went on to suffer big losses on March 15. And that was after his shocking Michigan victory. Moreover, Sanders greatly underperformed his delegate targets last Tuesday in Arizona, which held a primary and has a more diverse electorate.
Most likely, Sanders will need to find another way to make up ground on Clinton in the delegate race. Wyoming (April 9) and North Dakota (June 7) are the only remaining stateside caucuses. The rest of the stateside races are primaries. Sanders has exceeded his delegate targets in just three stateside primaries. Hes matched them in three and underperformed in 15. Given that Sanders is still so far behind in the delegate count, he needs to outperform his delegate targets by a lot.
How likely is that? Well, hes behind by about 6 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEights weighted polling average. Thats not a huge deficit, and it wouldnt shock me if Sanders won Wisconsin given that the black population there is below 10 percent. (To match his delegate target in Wisconsin, he needs a net gain of 10 delegates there.) Sanders, though, will likely have more difficulty in later primaries in April, such as Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania, where African Americans make up more than 10 percent of the states population.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Who do they think they are?
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)then they would a caucus population, your indignation aside......LOL
morningfog
(18,115 posts)There is no reason the percentage of "college kids" participating is determined by whether the contest is a primary or a caucus.
You just hate college kids participating. GET OFF OF MY PRECINCT!
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)LexVegas
(6,041 posts)HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)22 remaining primaries, all Bernie needs to beat HRC is getting 56% of those primaries
facts... aren't they fun
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)I round that to 57%. I guess it possible that HRC could be hit by meteorite, eh?
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)1 in 700,000 odds of HRC being hit with a meteorite
versus a coin flip odds of Bernie beating HRC in delegate count
yeah that's comparable...
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)as interesting as someone who thinks have to win 57% of delegates is the same as having a 57% chance of winning 57% . makes clear why so many r in denial.
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)what was the % before this past weekends primaries?
who was in denial again?
do trends matter over time?
Which candidate is trending up whereas the other has remained static or plateaued over that same time span?
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)He answered ur Q's very clearly
HumanityExperiment
(1,442 posts)the very remarkable thing Nate had to do this primary cycle is he had to update his algorithm
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/
So could there be more 'misses' as we proceed through the remaining 22 primaries?
Only time will tell and that's on Bernie's side, HRC and her supporters are sweating that point out, profusely
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)voter disenfranchisement at the polls, that's a given, but I doubt she will prevail anywhere else.