Halperin, Heilemann - Clinton's Abandoning WI

[kcjohn1]

Accordingly their tv show. They get the impression they are down big, and aren't even going to bother to reduce the margins, and focusing on NY. They said they have no more events planned in WI and their camp is downplaying expectations already.

Interesting...I knew the last poll was useless. Interesting to see the Marquette poll due tomorrow

[thereismore]

1. If true, this is not so much a statement on WI as it is about NY. They think they might lose NY.

I bet that's what it is.

They are in major avalanche control mode.

[NWCorona]

12. That's my take as well

[LonePirate]

23. No. NY is the next contest after WI (well, apart from the WY caucuses).

I don't think there is any chance Clinton is worried about NY. She may simply be moving on to the next state on the calendar.

[morningfog]

35. Exactly, or at least it has significantly tightened.

[firebrand80]

2. Not sure what the basis was for that

It sounded more like speculation than anything based in the numbers. The most that anyone can say about WI is it's likely to close, roughly a 5 point race either way.

[strategery blunder]

17. Reminder: Bernie was predicted to win WA by 8

He won here by 45

This kind of thing has happened in SEVERAL states (including some that Clinton has won narrowly, she was leading IL by 20+ the week before their primary).

Doesn't surprise me that Hillary would feel she needs to pull out of WI to try to staunch a late NY surge.

[GreatGazoo]

38. Yes. Polls have been low

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-greenberg/polldefying-pattern-predi_b_9434118.html

[bobbobbins01]

3. I never know what to think when I hear this kind of stuff.

Maybe she realized its a lost cause and decided to put her efforts elsewhere, or maybe she's just downplaying expectations so she can claim victory if she comes close. I think if I were a candidate, I'd try to downplay everything so all my wins seem greater than they are.

[AzDar]

5. ^ This, precisely. That way, no matter how well Bernie performs... she appears to have 'momentum'.

[dragonfly301]

8. This^

When it comes to the Clintons i expect "shenanigans". If they are "giving up" expect dirty tricks and a last minute victory.

[Lucinda]

4. She had two events in WI today

http://www.weau.com/home/headlines/Hillary-Clinton-to-Campaign-in-Wisconsin--373670811.html

Hillary Clinton will campaign in Wisconsin ahead of the April 5 Democratic primary on Monday, March 28 and Tuesday, March 29. Clinton will hold events in Madison, Milwaukee, La Crosse and Green Bay where she will discuss her plans to break down all the barriers that hold Americans back, and encourage Wisconsinites to take advantage of the last week of early voting, which ends Friday, April 1.

Monday, Clinton will be at Gordon Commons at the University of Wisconsin-Madison at 3:45 p.m.; doors will open at 2:45 p.m.
Clinton will then make her way to Boys & Girls Club Milwaukee at 8 p.m.; doors open at 6:30 p.m.

Tuesday, Clinton will speak at the Community Forum on Gun Violence Prevention at Tabernacle Community Baptist Church in Milwaukee at 9:45 a.m.; doors open at 8:15 a.m.

In the afternoon at 1:30 p.m., Clinton will be at the Western Technical College Organizing Event in La Crosse; doors open at 12:30 p.m.

Details on Clinton’s stop in Green Bay will be determined.

[Scuba]

25. Were any of these open to the public? I know Madison was invitation only.

[riversedge]

29. yes, they were. And Bernie left WI (or is leaving today for NY)--Is he abandoning WI?

[Scuba]

31. Which ones were open to the public? How many attended?

Last edited Wed Mar 30, 2016, 10:59 AM - Edit history (1)

On edit: per this post, only a couple hundred people showed up for her GOTV rally in Milwaukee.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511608403

[geek tragedy]

6. duh, I've been calling this, Sanders will blow her out there by at least 15 points

Obama beat her by 17 points there.

If Sanders doesn't win by at least 10 points, it's effectively a loss for him, and both campaigns know it.

[NWCorona]

13. Not a loss

But he does need to win and win big will be great.

All eyes are on NY!

[morningfog]

36. A 10 point win for Bernie is good and not a loss, but I do expect larger margins.

[onehandle]

7. Morning Joe Junior says something. nt

[riversedge]

32. Sanders fans dragged Morning Joke from under the bus b/c he is singing Sanders songs

along with his panel the last several days.


http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/sanders-touts-political-revolution-clinton-decries-gun-violence-b99696702z1-373938321.html


After blitzing the state over two days, Clinton is headed to New York Wednesday to open her campaign for the delegate-rich state's April 19 primary. New York appears to be a must-win for Clinton, the state's former U.S. senator. Wisconsin is widely viewed to be a Sanders-friendly state.

Sanders has events scheduled Wednesday in Kenosha, Madison and Onalaska before heading to New York for a planned rally Thursday.

Neither campaign has announced future events in Wisconsin and neither candidate has yet confirmed they'll attend Saturday night's Democratic Party dinner in Milwaukee...............

[KoKo]

9. I watch their show...

and sometimes they have "Great Tips" and sometimes they get "Caught up in the Moment."

It was good to see they thought Bernie has such a good chance that Bill and Hillary "tucked tail" and are in NY for the next round...leaving Bernie to win Wisconsin. But, I don't trust them...even though they are entertaining and wrote two books about Election 2008.

Their show is sponsored by "Bloomberg Business" (former Mayor of NYC, Bloomberg) ....so they are on a short leash.

Still...sometimes they have some interesting insight and are entertaining with some Good Gossip.

I think they might be on to something with Bill & Hillary leaving Wisconsin to go to NY after Hillary only about 300 people in Milwaukee, WI--- but Bernie managed to get stadium in Appleton Suburb with Many Thousands.

They were "Feeling the Bern" at least on this show!

[CalvinballPro]

10. This seems like a chance to manufacture a narrative that Bernie isn't the only one to abandon states

despite the fact that his is the only campaign bragging about a 42 State Strategy.

[HughLefty1]

11. I think she's running out of momentum..

It will be interesting to see if she has any stamina left by the time CA votes on June 7th.

[thereismore]

16. I think the entire campaign is a huge inconvenience

to her. She'd rather be presidenting right about now. She is going to lose this race.

[strategery blunder]

18. Possibly fundraising too

Hillary's donors max out, because she has fewer of them but they tend to contribute the legal limit all at once.

Meanwhile Bernie's individual donors can do $27 donations 100 times over if they wish

[kennetha]

27. nonesense

Hillary has over 1 million individual donors. If the were all maxed out, she would have raised billions by now. Most have contributed under 100 dollars.

[1StrongBlackMan]

34. Shhh ... The narrative sounds so good ...

until one thinks about it.

[morningfog]

37. I remember her ploy requesting $1 donations to drive the number up, lol.

[BernieforPres2016]

14. If correct I don't think it's a bad strategy

Wisconsin is an open primary with 86 delegates at stake and I have felt that Bernie is going to win big there. They have an active grassroots movement because of the recall efforts with Governor Scott Walker. And Bernie does best in open primaries because he dominates the independent vote.

I think the real hurdles for Bernie are the closed primaries on April 19 & 26 in New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland and Delaware for a combined 607 delegates. Closed primaries favor Hillary. If she can win just half of the delegates in those states then the math for Bernie to overtake her in regular delegates becomes very difficult. If she could win 55%, it will be about impossible for Bernie to catch up. So if I was Hillary, I would be focusing on those states, particularly New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland, which are a combined 531 delegates.

I expect Bernie is going to be bouncing between Wisconsin and the April 19 & 26 states between now and the April 5 primary in Wisconsin.

[H2O Man]

15. Interesting.

Good OP/thread. Definitely recommended.

I fully expect Hillary to win NYS. However, I think that there is a good chance that a heck of a lot of state residents who do not normally vote -- especially in primaries -- will be showing up.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

19. 40k+ new voter registrations is what i heard this morning. nt

[thereismore]

20. Thanks for that info!

[jwirr]

40. LOL no wonder she is turning to NY.

[Dawson Leery]

21. She is making 5 stops this week.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/hillary-clinton-to-make-five-stops-in-state-monday-tuesday-b99695252z1-373671031.html

Stop listening to Dead Inter Joe in the Afternoon.

[emulatorloo]

22. Bernie will win WI. However, I don't think HRC is 'abandoning' WI

Still doing events there.

[corbettkroehler]

24. Sign Sanders' Debate Petition

Debates are good for democracy!

http://go.berniesanders.com/page/s/new-york-debate

[PonyUp]

26. Why focus on NY? The superduper delegates said they will vote for her come Hill or high water. n/t

[riversedge]

28. Bernie also leaving WI today (or did he do it yesterday?). did they say the same about Bernie?

[RiverLover]

33. Well, Nate Silver is predicting Hillary has an 83% likelihood of winning WI

And a poll here shows her ahead 50-44%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

And we all know they're NEVER wrong.

....right, Michigan?

[jwirr]

39. WI has learned the hard way about corporatists. GOTV WI

lets take this one. Well wishes from MN Bernie supporters.

NY she is turning her eyes on you - keep you eyes on the price - a win for Bernie.

BTW donors do not forget to donate in April WI, WY and NY are very important.