Bernie is winning the Black vote in Wisconsin by 10%

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/31/1508550/-Sanders-Leading-in-Wisconsin-PPP-Poll-Winning-Black-Voters-by-Over-10

A common criticism of Bernie Sanders’ campaign is that he “can’t appeal to anyone but young, white men.” Despite the fact that he won Latino voters in Nevada and did well with them in Illinois, and that he got 35% of the Black vote in Michigan, Clinton fans still like to cling to the fantasy that Bernie fans are all white. For the record, I’m a first-generation Iranian-American male.

Nate Silver now has Bernie with a 57% chance to win Wisconsin, a huge swing from the over 80% chance Hillary had to win just a few days ago. This is based on two polls that show Bernie with decently-sized leads in the state, with just a few days to go before Wisconsinites hit the polls on April 5th.

The latest of these two, a poll by PPP has Sanders leading 49% to 43%.

However, the key part of this poll that nobody has noticed is that Bernie is actually leading with Black voters in the state, earning 51% of their vote to 40% for Hillary Clinton.

If this holds going forwards the weathervane is done she'll start spinning endlessly out of control.

[HumanityExperiment]

1. Outstanding...

More time passes the more that join Bernie due to his message resonating as they get to know him and what he stands for

[thereismore]

2. Whoops! It's only a matter of time for this to happen in CA as well. New York, are you listening? nt

[KingFlorez]

3. It really depends on the sample size

I doubt that he will actually win black voters. An overall lead of just 6% doesn't really suggest that he is winning them. Sample size does not matter when it comes to demographics.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

6. How can you draw any conclusion when the PPP didn't list sample size...

The fact is even if sample size is smaller it is clear the lie that Sanders supporters are a bunch of BernieBros is a right wing smear designed to belittle his diverse support from women, minorities, etc.

[KingFlorez]

8. Calm down, no need to go flying off the handle

The poll says that 720 people were polled for the Democratic primary with about 10% of that sample being black, which is works out to around 70 black voters polled, which is far too low to draw a huge conclusion from.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

9. Well it is easy to get rubbed the wrong way because...

Every time we win a state we are told how white and rural the state is.

MSM even suggested the most diverse state in the country was largely White. (Hawaii at only ~22% white)

[Goblinmonger]

63. Done well, that can be plenty big of a sample size.

I haven't read about their methodology or p scores on this one, but 720 is big enough for a state the size of Wisconsin.

[NWCorona]

4. Great catch!

[Gwhittey]

5. Wisconsin does not count because

the African Americans there eat cheese....Or it's the cows. Or wait it is near a Large Body of water and Sanders always wins near Large Bodies of Water that are fresh water.

[Land of Enchantment]

7. Right! Like Hawaii!!!!! nt

[Art_from_Ark]

41. And don't forget-- it SNOWS in Wisconsin!

[strategery blunder]

44. And Wisconsin is rural! Sanders can't win unless it's rural!

(Yeah they tried to say Washington was rural, nevermind this place called Seattle)...

[Fumesucker]

54. It snows in Hawaii too

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/28265707/snow-falls-on-mauna-kea-as-winter-storm-warning-issued

MAUNA KEA, HAWAII (HawaiiNewsNow) -

Wet weather over the eastern half of the state has left more than a foot of snow at the summit of Mauna Kea on the Big Island.
A winter storm warning was in effect for the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, but expired Thursday morning.

The road to the summit of Mauna Kea remains closed due to ice and snow on the roadway.

With the wind chill, temperatures have dropped to a bone chilling 8 degrees, and the National Weather Service is reporting 1.5 to 2-foot snow drifts near the peak.

[TM99]

80. I think it was mountains and snow.

Yeah, no blacks or other PoC when the state has a lot of mountains and snow. That's it!

[me b zola]

10. But do those black people hang out with Asians?

Just trying to figure out camp Clinton's matrix on what is black enough.

[RoccoR5955]

11. Wait...

Wasn't it Billy Ray Joe Bob Clinton who called himself "the first black American president," or am I dreaming?
If that's the case, than Hilarity's matrix is that they have to be as black as her husband, I guess.

[me b zola]

13. LOL, I think you're on to something

To be Black enough means supporting Clinton. Ah, the matrix now makes sense.

[dsc]

37. No it wasn't him calling himself that

it was Toni Morrison who did.

[beam me up scottie]

15. LOL!

You called it, look downthread. Someone hasn't been to #Berniemademewhite

[me b zola]

21. I just can't even engage these clintonites for fear of losing my shit on them

I've been under the weather so I may lack the ability to remain civil.

In the early '80's when I moved to mid-missouri there were no latinos anywhere, so the racists had no knowledge of what racial epithet to call a Mexican American. When my Mexican American son began school, he was called the "N" word everyday at school, and the teachers refused to do anything about it. When talking to my friends about this, they informed me that the town still had sundowners laws on the books, so those words didn't just imply threats, they really were physical threats. My son was African American (really, to them an N word) to these mother fuckers. Racists too stupid to know how to discriminate against someone, so they lumped everyone of color into one group. My son, in turn, learned that his fate lied with everyone of color who was treated unfairly. A tragically hard yet valuable lesson.

I hate everything about how team Clinton exploits race. They really all can go to hell as far as I'm concerned./

[beam me up scottie]

25. Jesus. I've seen that happen to my s/o but he's a big boy and can defend himself.

Last edited Thu Mar 31, 2016, 05:02 PM - Edit history (1)

To do that to a kid? I would lose my shit too. I'm sorry that happened to your son, it's unforgivable.

And yes, the way they've always exploited race is despicable, unfortunately it seems to be working this time.

I try to avoid the race baiting threads, I have a limited amount of patience and just one of them would use up a year's worth.

[me b zola]

38. My son is 35 now, and has four children of his own

...with his Filipino wife. The entire "Asian isn't a minority" thing that was going around the other day made me lose my shit.

Yeah, I just got to move on along. But damn.

[Tarc]

12. Lol, what? This is is like the Trump poll where he claimed "25% of the black vote"

but the sample size was like, 5.

In this case, 72 of the respondents were African-American.

So congrats, I guess, to Camp sanders for finding 36 African-American Wisconsonites to support him.

[paulthompson]

16. Do you not understand how statistics works?

If you look at the comments in the DailyKos poll, you'll see people point out that with that many Black voters polled, one can calculate a margin of error of about 11%. Which means the odds are very strong that Black voters prefer Sanders by 10%, give or take 11%.

That means that even if you assume the numbers are way off in the Clinton direction, he's still doing much better with Blacks in Wisconsin than he did with Blacks in the South. Remember, in some states like Mississippi, Clinton won the Black vote 90% to 10%! That's why she crushed in those states, and that clearly isn't happening in the North anymore.

If that holds up, it could completely change the estimates in other northern states with large Black populations.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

17. Thank you for sharing...

I'm not as skilled with statistics so was hoping someone would chime in with factual answer.s

[paulthompson]

20. Thanks

This is an exciting trend for Sanders supporters. In the latest California poll, Sanders actually did better with the non-White vote than with the White vote.

There are two theories. One, Sanders just doesn't connect with minority voters, especially Latino and Black voters. Two, the more people find out about Sanders the more they like him, and that's true for Latino and Black voters too.

I think the answer is somewhere in between. His numbers haven't been as good with Latino and Black voters for a variety of reasons, but they are moving in his direction the more he gets his message out. Clinton's "firewall" is crumbling.

[Tarc]

22. The size is too small to be statistically significant

Retake math, plz.

[me b zola]

27. Retake humanity, plz

[Tarc]

40. Math has a well-known Hillary bias.

Apparently.

[me b zola]

47. I think you may need a hug

[strategery blunder]

48. Check out post 16 please

Someone actually did the math

[Tarc]

61. As did I

Sanders is as popular in the A-A vote as Trump is.

[strategery blunder]

62. You obviously did the math around Super Tuesday

it ain't Super Tuesday anymore.

a sample of 72 is large enough to be statistically valid, though it will have a high MOE (which post 16 acknowledged as being 11%)

So a poll showing Bernie winning AA voters in WI with 51%, but 11% MOE for the demo, means Bernie likely has somewhere between 40% and 62% AA support in that state.

Even the low end of that range, 40%, is a damn far cry from the 10% or so AA support Bernie had on on Super Tuesday. Hillary is still trying to coast through the primaries as if the 90% AA support she had on Super Tuesday is static, and it doesn't seem to be working that well.

Granted the confidence interval for the poll would be useful to have as it would give a bit more meaning to that MOE calculation. But it looks like Hillary really shouldn't be taking the AA vote for granted anymore.

[Tarc]

90. You can keep "Trumping up" (pun intended) that talking point

but it doesn't mask Sanders' horrid track record with the A-A vote.

[senz]

72. You wish.

Y'all have worked really hard at that, haven't you? Hill doesn't come up to Bernie's ankles when it comes to minority rights.

When the truth comes out it's going to bite.

[Goblinmonger]

64. The size is not as important as the methodology

If that is a truly random sample, 720 people in Wisconsin is plenty big.

Retake statistics, plz.

[NWCorona]

49. My zip code is 30% black and 32% Asian

Bernie took it easily.

[paulthompson]

14. Check out this stat from the poll as well

Like/dislike ratings amongst independent voters:

Clinton: 46% / 32%

Sanders: 81% / 10%

Independent voters like Sanders by overwhelming numbers. What does that say for the general election?

[Herman4747]

28. That It's SAFEST To Go With Bernie!!!

what I keep telling people.

[djean111]

18. Because I am white, and because I am a woman, and because I support Bernie, and

because I am old, and because this is DU - I somehow feel like a racist with mommy problems if I even feel the least bit cheery about that.

[lostnfound]

53. Old white woman supporting Bernie here too! So...

Maybe we can start a club, all two of us!


(Just a little wry humor, folks, in case anyone thinks I'm serious.)

[SheilaT]

86. Another old white woman supporting Bernie checking in.

My Millennial sons do think I'm pretty cool, however.

[TheBlackAdder]

19. There's a split of views between Southern Booker T Washington & Northern W. E. B. DuBois Philosophy!

[kwassa]

23. Wha??????

Do you really the black electorate follows either?

[noiretextatique]

58. Uh...yes. Black Panthers, for example

Were not as active in the South as in the West, East and Midwest. I grew reading their literature, and the NOI. And religion was not as an important part of my life in CA, as it IS for my cousins in TX.

[kwassa]

60. Were the Panthers more representative of ..

The philosophy of Dubois, or Washington? And which one these gentlemen was more religious?

[Goblinmonger]

65. Certainly you've read Dubois and Washington.

If not, here's a really cool poem that summarizes it nicely.

[noiretextatique]

68. I think you know that answer

You should know that black radicalism has deep roots in the east, midwest, and west.

[KingFlorez]

26. Are we anti-semitic religious nutcase confederates or fantastic people?

Before we were poorly educated people with Stockholm Syndrome throwing a wrench in progress, now it seems like the logic has now changed.

[TheBlackAdder]

29. I'm an English & Poli-Sci Continuing Ed person, gainfully employed. Project if you want.

.


By you making that statement shows exactly who the poorly educated person is.


.

[KingFlorez]

31. There were several posts on this board making the "Clinton won the Confederacy" statement

As well as posts about Stockholm Syndrome. I did not call you ignorant, but there were some posts here that suggested that black voters were low information and uneducated because they did not support Sanders.

You can have all the degrees and jobs you want, it does not make you smart. Ignoring the negatively that was spread about black voters is called being willfully ignorant and that's some that education can't fix.

[TheBlackAdder]

33. But, political and social reality exists, just as there are cultural areas. But sweep under rug.

[kwassa]

42. Explain your thesis, Washington vs. Dubois.

You are otherwise cryptic.

[nadinbrzezinski]

67. Oh it was abundantly clear to me

must be I have read both.

[kwassa]

73. I see you can't explain it either.

[nadinbrzezinski]

74. You should read into it

and not ask anonymous posters who you have complete disdain for online for an explanation. But it was transparent.

At least to those of us who paid attention... you could use the google by the way, and no I do not intent to help you

[kwassa]

77. I knew you didn't know this topic.

[noiretextatique]

81. I know it...it became the Malcom X vs King debate

It is either trying to work within the system or demanding, let's say, reparations. My great uncle, a NAACP chapter president was a work within the system type of guy. On his deathbed, he said we should have gone for nationhood, like Native Americans, because racism is so entrenched. Let's not pretend, shall we? Not every black person supported MLK's approach, and not every one today thinks it was the best.

[kwassa]

88. well, the NAACP had some great accomplishments ...

and I remember the whole tension between MLK and Malcolm X. I think Malcolm made MLK more successful. We were assigned Malcolm's autobiography in high school English class, by the way. This was the late 60s.

I was wondering more if many remember Washington and Dubois; their conflict was a hundred years ago? In a way, the NOI was more like Booker than W.E.B., in it's emphasis on self-reliance.

[nadinbrzezinski]

82. I do, but since you have zero respect

actually in the negatives, I feel like not discussing this with you.

You have made it abundantly clear that you do not want discussion, but rather have derision. Since that is the case, I shan't waste my time

But here, a link for ya

Start there

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl

[kwassa]

87. True.

My respect level is not high.

I was hoping to get an answer from blackadder, who has left the conversation a long time ago.

[noiretextatique]

70. None of the above

However, there is a different consciousness in the urban areas of the west, east, and midwest, as you well know. The Black Panthers, for example, were born from that consciousness, and they were not as active in the South as they were in the urban areas of the west, east, and midwest.

[nadinbrzezinski]

75. The huge clue in this is the great migration

[noiretextatique]

79. Of course...no one really wants to talk about it

At least in the other camp. Every single one of my Texas cousins are cousins are more conservative than I am. Coincidentally, they are also more religious. However, their children are not as conservative, even though they are as religious.

[nadinbrzezinski]

83. I think that is starting to change

partly due to the reverse migration, which is also real.

[noiretextatique]

84. Yes it is...I moved to Atlanta, so did my sister

And a lot of other Black people from the west, midwest, and east. My sister is more coventional than I, but we were not raised in the church. The constant religiosity takes some adjustment

[nadinbrzezinski]

85. I bet

But that will change the next generation, and I suspect in both good and bad ways.

[noiretextatique]

94. Oddly my nephew is very religious

I think in part because he cannot accept that he is gay. He was out on CA, but on the downlow in GA.

[Godhumor]

24. Selective pull. The other good Bernie poll, Marquette, has Hillary leading 2-1 with AA voters

The discrepancy has everything to do with trying to read small subgroups as valid indicators on their own.

[uponit7771]

43. Naw... naw... A bird from a podium told them an undersampled size blacks voting for Sanders is

... worth its own OP.

The fact that this is its own OP... is a big tell tale of how bad he's losing.

[Prism]

30. They're probably not really PoC

Has anyone on DU interrogated them yet so we can be sure?

[highprincipleswork]

32. I just love the image of the weathervane spinning out of control like from Wizard of Oz...

And very glad that some or even a majority of PoC in some places are giving Bernie the second look and their vote. Those of us who support him would never support him if we didn't believe he will fight for PoC just as hard as he does for other righteous causes. I just know in my heart that he will be a true champion for racial justice.

[Attorney in Texas]

34. It's clearly more of a progressive vs. conservative issue and not a racial issue. Hillary's failure

to win outside of the Bible Belt is not because African American voters can only be found in the 13 ex-Confederacy (contrary to those Hillary supporters quickest to play the race or antisemitism cards, there are mostly white voters in the Bible Belt and a racial mix in all states); Hillary's weak performance outside of the Bible Belt is because her supporters are less progressive than Sanders' supporters and these conservative Democrats are a bigger part of the primary vote in the Bible Belt.

[mmonk]

35. Someone didn't get the memo. That goes against the narrative.

[Cheese Sandwich]

36. Those voters don't count. Totally insignificant.

[Nanjeanne]

39. Interesting that even among Democrats, Clinton unfavorable is higher than Sanders

Clinton - Base Unfavorable 24%. Broken down Women 20%. Men 29%

Sanders - Base Unfavorable 13%. Women 16%. Men 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/WisconsinPrimaryPoll33116.pdf

[uponit7771]

45. Sooooooo, the fact that you had to have an OP of Sanders winning a majority of black votes in

... an under sampled size of blacks in a poll is the tell that Sanders is losing more than he should be during this primary.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

46. Except you felt the need to respond...

Can't be losing that bad

[uponit7771]

50. Bad enough... that an OP had to be made of the subject... sigh, he be aright

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

51. I agree he be alright... Nt

[noiretextatique]

59. Spin it any way you want

I knew Sanders would do much better outside the South, as he did in Michigan.

[HereSince1628]

52. Fascinating. Because -that- could also be proof that Sanders brings out voters

Historically Black participation in presidential primaries in WI makes up 1% of primary voters even though Blacks are about 6% of the WI population. All the reasons that contribute to making it hard for people to stand in long lines with too few voting machines are in play on that, and I don't mean it in any way as a criticism of Black voters in WI.

Democrats have been working to raise that participation for a long time. I hope it's way up.

[jonestonesusa]

55. Excellent!

As a black liberal Wisconsin voter I will be voting for Bernie on Tuesday after seeing him speak on Saturday. Glad to know that I may be voting with the majority of black voters in this state. Proud to be black and feelin' the Bern!

[Jitter65]

56. I guess their votes really matter since they are his margin of victory over Hillary in another red

state?

[Goblinmonger]

66. Are you saying Wisconsin is a red state?

Not saying we are a blue state, but certainly purple.

We did send Feingold to the Senate multiple times (and hopefully again). There is a strong progressive population in the state, too.

[noiretextatique]

69. What matters is the supposed "firewall"

Is non-existent outside the South.

[uponit7771]

92. yeap, were there are larger numbers of black dems... might as well say it... stop hiding...

... behind innuendo

[PeaceNikki]

76. Check our GE results for the past generation. We suck at GOTV in midterms,

but we do well in GEs. We're people at worst. Not red.

http://www.270towin.com/states/Wisconsin

[uponit7771]

91. But this red doesn't have more than 20% blacks in it

[noiretextatique]

57. What kind of black people are they?

as I predicted, he will do much better with AAs outside the south.

[senz]

71. The Hill crowd had better get a new round of race accusations against Bernie going

before it's too late!

It worked before. Better hurry up!

[Politicalboi]

78. The more informed they are

The better the chances they will choose Bernie over Hillary. She won't help them. She only wants their votes.

[StevieM]

89. I'm glad to hear it. That makes me distrust this particular poll.

Some polls are outliers or poorly conducted. And the overwhelming evidence is the Hillary Clinton is decisively winning the black vote.

I still think Bernie is likely to win Wisconsin. But I don't think it will be a big win. Maybe 5 or 6 points.

We'll see.

[uponit7771]

93. Sample size of 72 blacks in that state with an MOE of 11.9... no serious person would post this..

... poll and its a sad tale tell to Sanders out reach to blacks