2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe dangers to the party if Clinton continues her scorched earth attacks go beyond the discussions
Last edited Thu Apr 7, 2016, 11:26 AM - Edit history (2)
regarding how it will hurt party unity.
There are some things to point out that go beyond party internal damage and loss of registered Democrats that WILL effect the General election and down ticket races that could really hurt our party's numbers in the Senate and House besides potentially losing the presidency if she salts the earth in a frustrated rage against Sanders.
[center]There are larger elephants (or block of voters) in the room that one must understand we will lose[/center]
There are the independent voters that have only come out for Bernie (they are Independents because they don't like either party's establishments or corruption) contrary to popular belief, they are mostly to the left of the current Democratic party, but about 30% are just right wing bigots that don't like establishment Republicans (lets call them the Trump revolution), they have been polled and like all the stuff we lost when we abandoned the FDR, LBJ programs and the union factory jobs IOW the american dream.
Of those polled 70% are in favor of left wing (old school policies that are and were Democratized Socialism FDR, LBJ policies and even beyond that), I think they are the displaced and disgusted x Democrats, the only reason the party has not shrunk to lower than the 29% of the population the party lately enjoys, is some were replaced by moderate Republicans in the form of "new Democrats" or DLCers if you prefer that have been forced out of the R party by the John Birch Society loons and Theocrats. You will notice that in open primary States the numbers match and we gain much of that 70% (I) for Sanders in tangible votes, they will go Bernie or Bust, they don't like establishment right wing Democrats like Hillary, we did get some back in the '08 voting cycle but long story short we lost them due to feeling they fell for false advertising (one could argue rightly or wrongly so), but lost again nevertheless This block of voters is crucial to win a GE
There is the younger vote that will mostly only come out for Bernie, they are very well informed (not buying into the Pravda media outlets) tend not to vote in many elections because they see through the establishment and only see themselves losing a future they should have, ecologically and financially and don't see the value in voting to continue the trend.
The ecological part is rather self evident because actual climate change is quite real and will effect them more than the older generations, and being well informed, they see establishment politicians as continuing the fossil fuel favoring industries that support both parties through lobbyists.
Financially they see themselves either falling heavily in debt for college and end up flipping burgers anyway for the most part (some do get good jobs from degrees but far too few and are still in great debt) the rest see college as an unattainable pipe dream and end up flipping burgers or unemployed, many of both groups are forced to live at their parents homes much longer than in past generations This block of voters is crucial to win a GE.
There are the disenchanted, or too busy trying to live non voters that until Bernie showed up had given up on politics long ago as a means to positively affect their lives, most of them are poor which include the terminally unemployed in regions such as mine where all of the jobs outside of clerks at stores and restaurant workers have vanished since NAFTA, and the working poor that work two or three jobs for the privilege of trying to raise a family in poverty even tho they work hard, they are very stressed about things like, can we pay the rent or the utility bill this month and sometimes have to choose, that choice leaving them as prey to the pay day loan sharks. This is the fastest growing demographic as this is the hell you are sent to as the middle class disappears if you are not already born into it as most are. This is the largest group of voters , usually non voters as evidenced by our very low national turnout the last 4 decades, because of this This block of voters is crucial to win a GE.
Now, the 29% or 30% of solid Democrat voters are in a civil war between the traditional (and the only successful for the 99% policy wise) old school FDR LBJ Democrats, and the what would once have been called Moderate Republican "New" Democrats. It is a very real schism in the party.
For all the blustering and anger during the primary they will still probably, for the most part hold their nose and vote for the lesser of two evil Republicans types in the GE, but lacking the three groups I mentioned above that few on DU are talking about we can not win a General election, especially if Hillary wins and unites the Republicans in their common hatred of her that now spans two generations (I personally believe they will break records coming out for the privilege of hate voting against her).
Perhaps enough of the three un-talked about elephants in the room I mentioned will show up to vote with the Democrats against the Republicans, under a Clinton nominee, I have my doubts, but perhaps.
But two things are certain.
One, these three groups will come out in much large numbers for Sanders and polling shows this, and two, if Clinton goes all scorched earth she may actually split the party enough that the nose holding Democrats won't unite this time around around her as they usually do in the end and she will only increase her negative polling, hurting her further with the other three non Republican groups mentioned above and will most assuredly lose us more registered Democrats. JMHO
All that being said, my conclusion is we all lose if she doesn't stop with the frustration induced and ill advised hateful scorched earth policy she appears to be moving toward.
Edited to add due to the Hillary's scorched earth policy deniers that try to revers it as a Sanders thing, how the truth is already known, much like climate change, but much like climate change deniers they will ignore the truth anyway
Dem2
(8,168 posts)All that being said, my conclusion is we all lose if he doesn't stop with the frustration induced and ill advised hateful scorched earth policy he appears to be moving toward.
Sanders would have been on safer ground if he had said Clinton is raising questions about his qualifications and now he would like to raise questions about her qualifications. But he cant slam her for words she did not say.
Three Pinocchios
It works both ways, this is the point we need to acknowledge here.
RandySF
(58,772 posts)And frankly I'm getting tired of watching Sanderd supporters act mortally wounded every time Bernie takes a mild hit. Are millenials this delicate?
PufPuf23
(8,767 posts)Its not just millennial at all.
Look here at DU where the millennial generation is are under-represented.
I have been registered and voted straight Democratic since of age to first vote for McGovern in 1972.
One exception is I registered GOP and voted for John Anderson to try and stop Reagan in the 1980 primary and voted Carter in the general.
The negative campaigning of the Clinton campaign compared to Sanders is off the scale.
Negative campaigning by the Clinton campaign contributed to Clinton losing to POTUS Obama in 2008 (when I was also personally against Clinton, as in any Democrat except Clinton).
Clinton initiated the negative campaign in 2008 and lost. Her actions were shameful.
baldguy
(36,649 posts)Bernie supporters began with that out of the gate.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)content or something? Hate to disappoint, but you are third in line for that bonus.
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)a lot of us didn't. I am trying hard not to get too angry at Hillary that I won't vote for her if necessary but she isn't making it easy. I will probably vote for her but she has lost any chance that I will campaign for her or donate.
PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)It's more a moral issue with many voters. The idea is that for some years now, we've had to hold our nose and vote Dem simply because the Dem sucked LESS than the Repub. I'm in my late 50s and Bernie is the ONLY candidate in my voting lifetime that is advocating things that are actually GOOD for me and my family, would actually IMPROVE our lives. So, honestly, if Clinton keeps playing the dirty politics she's known for, just like she did back in 08 and is doing again now, I might get so pissed that I won't vote for her.
See, I'm TIRED of a government that won't respond to my needs, and instead funnels my taxes to the MIC and other corporate and Wall Street profits.
I'm tired of the war on drugs, private prisons, stupid gun laws, shitty rationed healthcare with high copays and crippling deductibles, a forever war we can't ever win against a shadow enemy that Clinton's policies in part created, my children and grandchildren not being able to afford college without taking out massive loans, predatory 'colleges' whose graduates can't get jobs but who still soak up my tax money, and I'm SICK TO DEATH of corporations offshoring jobs and profits; not paying their fair share of taxes.
I'm tired of Social Security and Medicare always being in danger of cuts in favor of military and domestic spying spending.
I'm sick of my civil rights getting curtailed in the name of 'safety.'
And I'm REALLY REALLY ANGRY at politicians who enact stuff that actually HURTS Americans, like 'free trade' because they don't give a shit about me, my family or our welfare. My own Senator, supposedly a Democrat, voted FOR fast tracking TPP. So he's PROVEN he doesn't give a shit.
So, Baldguy, who I vote for in the end is my own affair because I have to be able to look myself in the face afterward. And lest you pound me over the head with, "...BUT the Supreme Court," I'll remind you that any government, including ours, governs AT THE SUFFERANCE OF THE PEOPLE, and if that government makes its people suffer too much, it won't stay in power. Just some food for thought.
Because I'm not alone. There are millions of us who are SICK OF THIS SHIT.
onecaliberal
(32,826 posts)Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)DURHAM D
(32,609 posts)He can't win so he is trying to create the impression is he a victim of the Democratic party.
Works for me and should work for his supporters.
DURHAM D
(32,609 posts)Damn... I never get the good stuff.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)all at the same time?
David's "Internet specialists" people get different ones than the media, but you all get them.
frylock
(34,825 posts)She and her supporters can't shut up about it.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Seem to be ignorant off. For political animals it is baffling, but...the White House tends to switch every two terms. It is a thing with very few exceptions since 1945. This is the republicans to lose, and lord knows they are doing a fair job of that. The brokered convention will further split their party, but might lead to a really competitive nominee. Nope, not Kasich, or Trump, or Cruz...I am thinking Ryan, or somebody we have hardly heard from.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)Nay
(12,051 posts)brothers, waiting to step in as the brokered candidate in a contested convention. He could win, too. Lots of Republicans are not into Trump or Cruz.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)Being betrayed tends to turn people off.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)Onlooker
(5,636 posts)... but Sanders is still the likely loser, so who can blame him and his supporters for their frustrated rage.
But, your point about frustration is a good one, since we all know that the frustrated woman is a common phenomenon.
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)not gonna be pretty.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)then it has to be destroyed. They already have a place to go, the Repiglican party. We need our party back.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)And it is time people wake up to that reality. Sanders will only slow that. As to moderate republicans, where do you think they are going? Parties are not static
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)only allows John Birchers, Theocrats, and apparently now even fascists at least I believe we are on the same page.
I wish everyone could read between the lines as well as you. I imagine your ability to do so has been developed due to your line of work.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)And the Ds are "going back home."
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)For labor and or civil rights once the Democratic realignment is completed and they become the (not in name but) new Republican party. Do you think it is possible for a new labor or progressive party that represents the majority of the people that are not fascists, or Republicans that might perhaps send one of those the way of the Whigs and into the past?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)But I do not expect the Rs to survive. They have been walking towards that for at least ten years. It truly started in 1996. Watch how well the Third parties do this year. I suspect the greens and the libertarians will perform better than historic norm
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)The reasons are all in my op, if they don't stay home, and are not Democrats (or most of them anyway as it is not the party loyalists she will lose) and still want the political Revolution, the Greens will do much better than usual, and after a brokered chosen Republican party candidate likely chosen by the Kochs, so will the libertarians.
Unfortunately libertarian does not mean the same in the US as the left version sometimes seen overseas, but rather Represent the "John Galt" type worshipers.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)Though their right flank is well...loud. This also explains why they were the fastest growing party, but then hit a wall. The Lane the leaders picked is not precisely one that they can hope to compete with the market worshippers in both business parties.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)Bur few in this country actually do, nor do they read the likes of thinkers such as Noam Chomsky. So few have a true understanding of the spectrum of either anarchist or libertarian thought.
Unfortunately in the US, the right wing version via loudness and outspoken nonsense have co opted the term to mean something very much in line with Rand's Objectivism.
In US history, we have seen a range, most notably leftish in the (from memory so excuse me if I'm wrong) during the 20's and 30's. with a slight resurgence in the 60's
Please correct me if my history is off on this, I lost many of my old texts to a flood several years back and I like being corrected when my memory or notions fail me.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)And it does not help that the educational system and media have failed the people.
Myrina
(12,296 posts)... that say 'Make America Kind Again'. Yet they fully support HRC and the slash n' burn tactics.
Cognitive dissonance, much?
By the way, whatever happened to her co-opting Sanders' line of "Love Trumps Hate"? I guess we need to asterisk that for her.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)PufPuf23
(8,767 posts)You wrote what I think.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)Kip Humphrey
(4,753 posts)the republicons. Not a smart tactic IMO.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)What do you mean by that. The only scorching i see and hear are from the Sanders camp.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)Read the OP and not just the title, and watch the video I supplied for people just like you,
Considering what the campaign is planning, scorched earth is an apt description of their new announced method of campaigning to discredit him.
PFunk1
(185 posts)Even if Sanders wins the nod he will only slow the current dems regression. And I see the largest party after 2016 will be independents. Clinton's actions now will only solidify this but confirm and repug victory if she does win the nod as they'll be no rebuilding these wrecked bridges no matter how much unity BS is used after the primary's over.
Now this may be tinpot hat thinking here but I think the next home for fleeing FDR dems and indies will be the Green Party once someone there (forgive my language) gets their head out of their asses and starts taking things seriously. I think the political situation after 2016 may justify that happening. But hey, as I posted before this is tinpot hat talking here.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)"I think it's already too late the FDR version of democratic party is indeed dead
Even if Sanders wins the nod he will only slow the current dems regression."
Is a very close paraphrase of something she wrote up thread, I don't believe your thoughts require any tin foil at all, it is a valid argument. Look up thread, we had a rather lengthy conversation regarding party realignment, I believe it is a conversation you would be interested in.
PFunk1
(185 posts)But I think Clinton better bone up on the term "Pyrrhic victory" and fast.
Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)Dragonfli
(10,622 posts)CrispyQ
(36,457 posts)I think dem leadership thinks they can win without those groups & that the left will fall in line like they have in the past.
Our caucus is over. I already changed my dem affiliation back to Green.