2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe most accurate poll in elections is the exit poll
The exit poll showed a 4% spread. That would have been a huge loss for the establishment. I hope Team Bernie is collecting all the evidence and will use it to swing delegates at the convention. I no longer wish to be living under machine politics. END CLINTONISM NOW!
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)John Poundstone
10 hrs ·
A troubling and important issue in tonight's results, exit polls show a 4% lead for Hillary Clinton, but with 95% of Precincts reporting the Clinton lead is 15%. Exit polls are not that inaccurate and the media outlets who produced those poll numbers have no interest in understating Clinton's lead. So why is there such a vast discrepancy? A nearly 4 to 1 mistake in polling? Not likely. Also note that the millions of Independents not allowed to vote and the 128,000+ Dem voters who were purged did not get to vote and therefore cannot have distorted those exit polls. So how did this happen? The results are red flags for any experienced election observer. This can only have one of two factual causes, either the media has lost all ability to conduct an exit poll (highly unlikely as the exiting voter has no reason to misrepresent their voting) or the vote recording and counting has been compromised by some sort of systemic error or fraud. Given the reports coming from other states and large numbers of Precincts across NY today... I suggest the issues are systemic and fraud based. Again, I am an experienced election official from the Democratic party with decades of experience in US election operations and as an international observer of Elections across Africa.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Is one of the few outlets in the world approved for exit polling.
Strange indeed
Not saying we would have won. But it is what it is
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)Because let's say it was a 4-5 point race and Bernie would have lost. Bernie would have won 75 percent of all NY counties. He would have most likely earned more delegates in NY than Clinton. Most NY delegates are awarded on a proportional basis by the outcome in each congressional district.
If this was a very close race, Bernie would have ended up winning more delegates than Clinton. This is because Bernie was wining far more counties that Clinton was. Bernie won 75 percent of NY counties.
They couldn't have that happen, now could they?
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)And only a Poll matters?
LOL
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)so we won't be able to chat.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)LOL.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)There were election projection experts who said the CNN exit polls were horribly flawed the moment they were released:
Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol 6m6 minutes ago
CNN exit polls appear incredibly poor today.
Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol 2m2 minutes ago
Making a race call: Clinton will win the 2016 New York Democratic Primary. Margin call at 30%. Clinton overperforming benchmarks EVERYWHERE
Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol 17m17 minutes ago
Exit polls may be very wrong. Regardless, Clinton is killing it in delegats at the CD level.
Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol 4m4 minutes ago
Clinton beating benchmarks everywhere. Winning in Putnam, a Sanders County.
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https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol
jehop61
(1,735 posts)the amount of spin we're seeing this morning.
tex-wyo-dem
(3,190 posts)Exit polls are used in democratic elections across the world used as an oversight metric to the actual election results, which are frequently affected by fraud. Red flags are raised when the discrepancy of election results and exit polls exceeds a certain threshold (8% or greater is what I have read in the past). The discrepancy in NY last night is ~12%.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)factfinder_77
(841 posts)It was a bad night for CNN
move on..
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)uponit7771
(90,335 posts)winter is coming
(11,785 posts)Zynx
(21,328 posts)They're to make sure that the election outcome roughly makes sense.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)Zynx
(21,328 posts)Different groups of people vote materially different.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)That's not "early". This big a difference doesn't pass the smell test.
Zynx
(21,328 posts)FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)I always thought that Republicans were the ones who would use election fraud to secure a nominal victory. I was wrong.
One of the many things that Bernie has accomplished is drawing the curtain back on the corruption and machine politics in the country's large cities. It is now up to us to upend this horrible disaster of a 2 party system.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)It's a feature.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)election fraud. Now I know.
n/t
farleftlib
(2,125 posts)is now a democracy in name only. And he would know. The fact that he came right out and said it means the party is over. This primary has been one massive screw up after another, all favoring HRC. I don't need a house to fall on me to see what is going on. I almost wish I didn't see it.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)farleftlib
(2,125 posts)Only 240 years and we're in such a state of decline I don't know if even Bernie could stop it. Plenty of money for wars but nothing that helps people. And so many buy into that.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)No money to help fix our domestic problems.
I am praying for a criminal indictment.
J_J_
(1,213 posts)Many people do, and if she 'wins' this nomination, we are going to be stuck with Trump which is another nightmare. We are screwed.
MisterP
(23,730 posts)any honest candidate withdrew, and it was condemned by the UN, Carter Center, and OAS
or the 2013 one where the only honest candidate was consistently ahead in the polls but then mysteriously "lost" after open vote-buying, voter intimidation, and murder of 18 opponent candidates and activists
both were used by Washington to legitimate a coup regime in the hope that things would go quiet and become a fait accompli
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)So I wonder if 4 points was even there....
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)reporting the sports scores, travel, and crossword puzzles.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Go figure.
Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)as they're all in on this conspiracy.
tex-wyo-dem
(3,190 posts)By the NYT. Neither exit polls or actual vote counts are infallible and will have a certain error.
Fraud committed in democratic elections throughout the world are fairly commonplace. One purpose of exit polls is as a competitive metric to the "official" vote results. Historically, if the official and exit poll discrepancy exceeds a certain threshold, then red flags should be raised for an investigation. The threshold varies, but as I understand it is typically around 5-8%.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)LadyHawkAZ
(6,199 posts)Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Have you noticed?
LadyHawkAZ
(6,199 posts)That doesn't change facts. Our elections have been tampered with for some time.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)No.
LadyHawkAZ
(6,199 posts)Neither man is named Sanders.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)Your point?
LadyHawkAZ
(6,199 posts)"The most accurate figures come from the voting".
You were wrong.
I haven't seen claims of tampering in every state, just the states with verified suppression.
RandySF
(58,728 posts)I didn't cry foul over that. It's also possible that Bernie's supporters were more anxious to respond.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)We don't know that they all were same
DemocracyDirect
(708 posts)I guess we should just be realistic about Democracy.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)as a primary defense to ferret out election fraud.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)This is why my profession drinks...
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)It was the case that caused the press to use exit polls to base predictions on.
All the votes wouldn't be completely counted until days later. Paper ballots counted by hand.
eastwestdem
(1,220 posts)I have two of voting age - 21 and 18, and a 13 year old. All report severe ridicule from their peers when saying anything positive about Hillary. The oldest has found a group of like-minded kids, and has in fact flipped several of their friends, but the younger two would rather just not make waves. I can totally see any of them coming out of a polling place with their friends, and lying to the pollsters. Bullying is a powerful thing.
FlatBaroque
(3,160 posts)All we can do is laugh in the face of this existential challenge to democracy.
Retrograde
(10,132 posts)I've voted in every election for the past 40 years, and I've never come across one. Of course, the last decade has been mostly mail-in votes, but still, how many polling sites can they hit? I suppose they could call, but then there are the people who block calls from non-recognized callers because they are tired of robocalls