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Tue May 10, 2016, 10:20 AM

 

Looking forward to the last 13 contests, which do you see Clinton winning?

Nebraska
Oregon
West Virginia
Kentucky
Virgin Islands
Puerto Rico
California
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
North Dakota
South Dakota
DC

I think she'll win DC, The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. New Jersey allows independents to choose a D ballot, so I don't see her winning there.

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Reply Looking forward to the last 13 contests, which do you see Clinton winning? (Original post)
lumberjack_jeff May 2016 OP
CoffeeCat May 2016 #1
lagomorph777 May 2016 #7
CoffeeCat May 2016 #9
hack89 May 2016 #14
HooptieWagon May 2016 #2
CrowCityDem May 2016 #6
jayschool May 2016 #3
CrowCityDem May 2016 #4
NCTraveler May 2016 #5
whatthehey May 2016 #8
LibDemAlways May 2016 #10
Orsino May 2016 #13
firebrand80 May 2016 #11
Jitter65 May 2016 #12
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #17
Tarc May 2016 #15
Tiggeroshii May 2016 #16
Demsrule86 May 2016 #18

Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:23 AM

1. This. This right here.

This is why Clinton and her minions have been pressuring Bernie Sanders to drop out.

They're worried. And they should be.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #1)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:34 AM

7. All the posturing only makes it more obvious they know she's in trouble.

Sorry Hillarians, but the party is toast if she gets the nomination.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #7)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:37 AM

9. Each win that Bernie secures

is a devastating blow to Clinton.

It's highly likely that Bernie will win at least 7 of those states. Some of them by very large margins.

Bernie's wins will highlight the fact that Clinton is a horrendously weak candidate.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #9)

Tue May 10, 2016, 11:32 AM

14. How many of the final 10 states did Obama lose in 2008?

He was not a weak candidate

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:29 AM

2. Cslifornia is 475 delegates alone.

 

Sanders is going to be strong in most of the remaining states, and make things close. No wonder the Hillarians are panicking.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #2)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:32 AM

6. He's trailed in EVERY poll so far. Do you think he's going to swing it 35% in a month?

 

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:30 AM

3. Nebraska

Bernie already won the Nebraska caucus.

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:30 AM

4. She'll win...

 

Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and DC easily. New Jersey isn't going for Bernie, sorry. There was one poll last week that had her up by 30 points.

I wouldn't bet on it, but California could swing Bernie's way. The problem is that even if NJ and CA do, the best he can hope for are narrow wins, which don't help him one bit.

Clinton isn't scared, because her lead is so big that even losing every state left wouldn't be enough to stop her.

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:31 AM

5. The fourteenth contest is the one I'm predicting she will win.

 

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:34 AM

8. Open primaries are not the Clinton Vampire Garlic many seem to think

She's been consistently well ahead in state polling in NJ and I expect nothing to change. Sanders I think is likely to take MT and possibly NM (although heavily Hispanic demo pulls against that)but that's based on more gut feel than polling. CA is closish but likely Clinton. Dakotas, who knows? SD may go Sanders, ND less likely in pure SWAG as I've seen data on neither.

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:43 AM

10. Shouldn't the "presumptive nominee" be such a foregone

conclusion at this point that all of those states should be safely in her pocket -- no contest or just token opposition?

That Bernie is winning primaries and drawing huge crowds at this stage of the game does not bode well for the establishment. The corporate media can ignore him all they want, but it's clear something important is going on. A sizable chunk of the electorate is not happy with the status quo candidate the Dems are determined to nominate.

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Response to LibDemAlways (Reply #10)

Tue May 10, 2016, 11:25 AM

13. Momentum means something, just not sure what.

Sanders support may wane, or it might dig in.

Guess that's why we vote.

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 10:50 AM

11. Enough to be the nominee

Likely Wins: KY, VI, PR, CA, NJ, DC

Likely Loses: NE, OR, WV, MT, ND, SD

Toss Ups: CA, NM

It's very possible that she could do worse than that, because she's not participating in the primaries 100%. She's moved on to the GE to a large extent, and there's no evidence that Bernie's supporters will abandon him as a "lost cause" in large numbers.

The final score is in doubt, but the outcome is not.

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 11:22 AM

12. NJ, CA, NM, DC, VI, PR and wishing 20 point elsewhere.

 

NJ might be close but anything + or - 5 points is a win for her.

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Response to Jitter65 (Reply #12)

Tue May 10, 2016, 12:19 PM

17. Not CA

 

I doubt NM. The others are very possible. It doesn't look good for her if at best she will only win 4 more contests. Especially since those are at the very end and things can change before hand.

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 11:33 AM

15. Nebraska voted on March 5th

New Jersey will go much like New York did, Kentucky will be hers in a blowout, and Clinton will win by at least 5 in California.

But she could lose every single one by 30 points and stil lcome out on top.

None of this really matters.

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 12:07 PM

16. She will win NJ and DC for sure. PR and VI are coin tosses.

 

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Response to lumberjack_jeff (Original post)

Tue May 10, 2016, 12:21 PM

18. She will destroy him in Jersey

It is like New York. Honestly though I don't care...he has lost by all measures and now this is irrelevant. Hillary won he later primaries too and she was way closer. We have proportional...he can not take enough delegates to win.

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