Naked Capitalism: First Steps Toward Replacing Hillary Clinton Already Taken?
Mr. Obama and adviser Valerie Jarrett might begin sending signals to the Democratic National Committee and to the vice president that a Biden rescue operation wouldn’t displease the White House” [Wall Street Journal, “Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee”]. But “Valerie Jarrett might begin sending signals” jibes well with today’s “The White House Is Terrified the Clinton Campaign “Is in Freefall.'”
Prolegomena to gaming things out: (1) In a way, the outcome of the Clinton Email Hairball, whatever it may be, will be an instance of “The Party Decides.” For example: There are some forms of cancer that cannot be removed without killing the patient. The Clinton network may have metastatized too much for treatment. In which case, “eat, drink, and be merry.”
For Clinton to be removed: (2)(a) somebody will have to take her aside and explain. Under Nixon, that role was performed by a delegation led by Barry Goldwater. Perhaps Democrat insiders like John Podesta, who has a power base independent from the Clinton campaign, or Nancy Pelosi, who has not yet endorsed, could play a similar role. (2)(b) The White House would have to send a strong enough signal, through Valerie Jarrett. (Remember that Obama’s inner circle is very small.) (2)(b)(i) Although Obama is a lame duck, he retains power over Loretta Lynch, even though Lynch is a long-time loyalist (see page 44). He also retains the power to pardon. He also retains the affection and loyalty of a large part of the Democrat base. And he has his library to think of. (3) No matter what Obama does: (a) the FBI leadership and Judicial Watch are independent power sources, and (b) the worker bees at State and FBI are really fed up and ticked off with Clinton (and for good reason). (4) No matter what Clinton does: She will retain the affection and loyalty of a large part of her own base. (I remember vividly, though possibly not correctly, WaPo’s coverage of the Iowa 2008 caucus, which Clinton unexpectedly lost to Obama, where the young punk reporter mocked some older women sitting sadly in an empty high school auditorium, mourning their loss, and thinking “something’s not right, here.”) (5) “You can’t beat something with nothing.” If Clinton is to be removed, there has to be a candidate willing to replace her at the top of the ticket; #NeverTrump was a fiasco because nobody (credible) could be found. I think if the party decides on Biden, they will be in a lot more trouble than they bargained for. And Kerry’s a loser. So who? (6) The formal way for the party to decide is for Clinton delegates, pledged and unpledged, to vote against her. Who’s going to be the first delegate* to do that? (7) Nobody normal pays attention to the election before Labor Day. So the Democrat Party still has time to change course. But not a lot, especially if they go with a dark horse (like, say Sherrod Brown) and have to introduce them to voters. (8) The obvious face-saving maneuver for everyone is for Clinton to “discover” a previously unknown medical condition, and decide to spend more time with her family. There’s probably more to be said… This is an overly dynamic situation! (Oh, and: (9) Sanders had better not go up in any small planes. I cannot imagine the party deciding in his favor.)
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/200pm-water-cooler-612016.html
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