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Csainvestor

(388 posts)
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 06:47 PM Jun 2016

Super-delegates vote like a state does with a caucus contest

The superdelegate contest is just like a state caucus. We all know that the WA state caucus doesn't have to follow what the Caucus did in Iowa, the superdelegates DO NOT have to follow how other states have voted.

The superdelegate caucus is a tiny election with just 700 people, and they are free to vote any which way they see fit, just like people do at a statewide caucus.

Yes, this means what you think it means. The last contest in the primary season is not DC its the super delegate vote at the convention.


This begs another question, should 700 people be worth 700 delegates?
CA with 40 million people only has 450 delegates.

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Super-delegates vote like a state does with a caucus contest (Original Post) Csainvestor Jun 2016 OP
Been in place for nearly 40 years... beachbumbob Jun 2016 #1
Just some more #BernieMath ... which has no basis in reality SFnomad Jun 2016 #2
They're not going to overturn the will of the people. Zynx Jun 2016 #3
The press has based the call on who is the presumptive nominee on super delegates Gothmog Jun 2016 #4
 

SFnomad

(3,473 posts)
2. Just some more #BernieMath ... which has no basis in reality
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 07:21 PM
Jun 2016

Secretary Clinton WILL clinch on June 7th ... doesn't matter how much fr a tantrum you have or how hard you stamp your feet and pout.

Gothmog

(144,919 posts)
4. The press has based the call on who is the presumptive nominee on super delegates
Wed Jun 1, 2016, 08:18 PM
Jun 2016

You are ignoring history and want special rules just for Sanders. In every primary contest since the creation of super delegates, the winner was declared the presumptive nominee based on the inclusion of super delegates. That fact that this is not favorable to Sandes does not matter http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved

?1464557557

After reading a number of impassioned defenses of why the Democratic presidential nomination should not be called next week on June 7th, I got curious. What’s the history here, since the superdelegates were added to the process? When a Democratic candidate hits the magic number of pledged delegates plus superdelegates, are they the nominee?

The answer: history says the first person to get to the magic number is the presumptive nominee, and says it unambiguously, even if the losers often disagree.

Here’s how it has gone since the superdelegates were added to the process.....

Summary

Anyway, I started this research 12 hours ago to answer a question for myself, so that as everyone on TV is spinning things this way and that on June 7th I have some context. What, if anything, have I learned?

First, most non-incumbent candidates have needed superdelegates to win, and the history of superdelegates has been that once a Democrat hits the magic number and becomes the nominee, superdelegates are more likely to flow to the nominee than from them.

Also, in the history of the superdelegates, they have always ended up supporting the decision of the pledged delegates, and their most important contribution has been to amplify leads of the pledged delegate winner so that they can be assured success on a first ballot, and avoid the sort of messy convention that harms a general campaign.

The major thing I’ve learned is that the press declares, and has always declared, the winner after they hit the magic number, and has done so in far more nebulous circumstances than this. Even in 1984, in which Hart won by a number of other metrics, in which the delegate count was the arbiter, and Mondale announced himself as the nominee, even with 38 percent of the popular vote to Hart’s 36 percent—even then, Hart may have claimed he still had a cunning plan, but no one begrudged Mondale the fact he was, for all intents and purposes, the nominee.

When you think about it, that simply has to happen. Things need to get done, and they need the nominee to do them. Except for Reagan in 1976, who chose a running mate after Gerald Ford was made the nominee, there aren’t a whole lot of non-nominee candidates going to the convention with their own vice president picked out. You get to do that because the numbers say you’re the nominee.

Meeting this number also allows the nominee to do the work of campaigning before the convention, establishing a message, building capacity on the ground, etc.

The press, for its part, has always understood this, from 1984 onward, and has named the nominee (or the “presumptive nominee”) the minute the candidate crosses the line with their combination of pledged and supers, and usually said something to the effect that they had “clinched” the nomination. They did that when Mondale had won far fewer states than Hart. They did that when Dukakis did not have 50 percent of the pledged delegates. They did that when Obama had not won the popular vote (yes, I know, Michigan—I hope we’re still not fighting this?).

This is a well researched article and confirms that the nomination process will be over on Tuesday June 7, 2016 when the results of the New Jersey primary are announced.
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