2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy Hillary Can't Beat Trump. Most Voters Don't Like Her, Distrust Her and Think She Is Dishonest!
What more does one need to guarantee a doomed candidacy and Trump landslide?tonyt53
(5,737 posts)The same plan is in use for beating Trump.
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)brooklynite
(93,873 posts)...FL (which Bernie lost), and possibly NC (which Bernie lost) and GA (which Bernie lost).
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)It's a different voting population and a different set of candidates.
The fact that Hillary beat Obama badly in NY in 2008 didn't stop him from taking it easily in the general.
I'm not saying that Hillary won't win those states, I just don't think that she's more likely to win those states than Bernie would be. Contrary to what one might think reading some DU posts, most people who voted for one of these Dems don't despise the other, and would almost always take the other Dem if the alternative was Trump. Put another way, do you really think a significant number of the Hillary voters in those state would vote for Trump if he were running against Bernie instead of Hillary? I doubt it.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Bernie to come in and "save" the election for us.
I think she is going to be better in the GE than Sanders because he's been too easy to bait, but it really does not matter. What matters is she is the Dems choice, and Bernie is not. That matters a lot.
basselope
(2,565 posts)She has no chance in Florida, Ohio, PA, or north carolina b/c the deck is stacked against her there.
blue neen
(12,308 posts)....because you're making a mighty bold statement there.
basselope
(2,565 posts)So...
First you have to understand that the GOP has spent the last 8 years in these states working on almost NOTHING more than suppressing the democratic vote, via voter ID laws, having less access available in urban areas, etc. It will take OVERWHELMING voter turnout to overcome this, as, on its own it will likely see a 3-5% reduction from what the "polls" are showing.
Second, you have to be aware of the polling trends that have been plaguing the pollsters this round. You can look at RCP for almost every state. There are SOME exceptions, but for the most part, the trend has been identical. Trump and Sanders have been greatly underestimated in the polls. This is because the pollsters use "likely voter" as their main indicator. However, both Trump and Sanders are drawing the "unlikely" voter. That first time voter, or that person who hasn't bothered voting in years b/c they didn't feel they had any reason to bother. To deny this is to just stick your head in the sand.
So if you look at Ohio.. Clinton 1.4% average lead.. well.. that's MUCH more likely a 5-7 point loss b/c of voter suppression and the unlikely voter trend. Florida. Same problem. North Carolina. Same Problem.
To have a remote chance of winning Clinton would need 7-10 point leads in these polls.. but she doesn't have it. We also know she isn't going to drive voter turnout.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)msanthrope
(37,549 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Exilednight
(9,359 posts)for any D over the next decade. With the demographic shift that is slooooowly happening, it could happen by the 2024 election.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)It has the demographics no doubt...just really suppressed turn out
I live in DFW and the only reason Arlington still votes GOP cause there had been no gotv there ...it's the only major metropolis in the US that has a large GOP lean.
She can no doubt turn Texas at least purple
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)She will win in a landslide.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)TeacherB87
(249 posts)She's the nominee sink or swim. Get used to it.
pengu
(462 posts)TeacherB87
(249 posts)I'd say that's a great asset if I thought we were on the same side of things. But based on on your response I'm not sure you and I would be on the same side of much of anything. But hey, look, if you vote for The Pig-Satan (or stay home) maybe President Trump will Make you the Psychic Czar. Every psycho could use a psychic, I'm sure.
Ohioblue22
(1,430 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Ohioblue22
(1,430 posts)We report you decide?
Andy823
(11,495 posts)She has more votes than Bernie, that's a fact. The majority of those who voted wanted HER, not Bernie, and that also is a fact. Another fact is that the person with the most votes wins, and no matter what kind of crap you post you can't change the facts, now can you?
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)They will either not vote at all, or vote for Trump - they don't like Trump, but the feeling is, maybe things have to get truly horrible before they get better.
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)They figure that Hillary is more of the same stuff that affects them now - high ACA costs, war, crushing student debt, no jobs. And she pretty much said yeah, that's not gonna change. They will just tune out of politics again, because, aside from Bernie, they think it is all corrupt. And in many ways, I cannot argue with them. The DNC and Hillary own that.
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)while younger people who will be around a lot longer see no appeal in gradual change.
djean111
(14,255 posts)What does that even mean, really? A little less war, fewer jobs leaving the US at a time? A fucking smug plan that would shave off $2000 whole dollars from a lifetime of student debt? The same un-affordable ACA plans that have high co-pays and out-of-pocket, meaning that kids still have to save up to go to the doctor? In Hillary's case, gradual change really means she won't upset Wall Street and the 1%, and will just smile condescendingly and keep saying she is looking into things. The young people know that, they look things up, they don't fall for campaign blather.
thesquanderer
(11,955 posts)Personally, I want more positive change to occur while I'm around to see it!
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Bernie good anything else bad
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Pie in the sky. Your voting for ideals not policy. Bernie has no plans that would get through Congress.
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)about how things usually don't get better if it gets horrible. All that a Trump victory will bring, is a further slide to the right.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Why will things improve with Trump when people like your grand kids drop out of the game?
They like playing with fire?
840high
(17,196 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)That'll rock the vote!
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)Tarc
(10,472 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Tarc
(10,472 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)along with tens of millions of voters.
Trump will crush her on that and the Clinton Foundation if the Democratic Party runs her for President.
Tarc
(10,472 posts)I love your username.
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)uponit7771
(90,225 posts)Beacool
(30,244 posts)The sky is falling.......
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Noted.
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)imagine2015
(2,054 posts)That doesn't bother you in the slightest?
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)look at trump
madamesilverspurs
(15,784 posts)a nice big place to park your disappointed schadenfreude.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Get some new material
jamese777
(546 posts)Primaries popular vote as of June 2nd
Hillary Clinton: 13,220,201 (55.4%)
Bernie Sanders: 10,196,828 (42.7%)
---------------
Donald Trump: 11,663,279
Clinton over Sanders: 3,023,373
Clinton over Trump: 1,556,922
Trump over Sanders: 1,466,451
Hillary Clinton: 1,770 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders: 1,500 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 522 superdelegates
Bernie Sanders: 43 superdelegates
Hillary Clinton: 2,290 total delegates
Bernie Sanders: 1,543 total delegates
Hillary Clinton: 27 contests won
Bernie Sanders: 21 contests won
Hillary Clinton needs 93 delegates
Bernie Sanders needs 840 delegates
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
imagine2015
(2,054 posts)Do you really think that many people will come out and vote for her if she captures the Democratic nomination?
Dream on.
And I love your figures on the superdelegates.
Do you think those folks are under some sacred vow or convention requirement to vote for a person they might have indicated a preference for months ago?
For your information they are not bound to anyone. They are free agents. And yes Hllary's superdelegates can once again do what they did in 1968. Over 200 abandoned her and voted for Obama.
Think about that little factoid for a moment.
Hillary Clinton needs 93 more delegates to do what? Clinch the nomination? Wrong. She needs 2,383 delegates to secure the nomination and will fall far short of that number after all of the pledged delegates are selected.
She needs to convince several hundred superdelegates at the convention to vote for her. And that will be a very hard sell as her poll numbers against Trump continue their downward plunge.
Of course you already know that but that 93 number sure looks good!
jamese777
(546 posts)Superdelegates who have already issued definitive statements of endorsement are highly unlikely to switch and many of them are close personal friends of Hillary Clinton's. There are some advantages to having been a member of the Democratic Party for 45 years as opposed to 15 months, like Bernie Sanders.
In 2008 about 50 unpledged delegates switched from Clinton to Obama AFTER he had achieved a lead in pledged delegates.
At the convention, Clinton released unpledged delegates who had endorsed her.
anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)Isn't that what you want at this point?
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Once as a passenger I saw a car run a red light on the driver's side of the car I was in, I didn't have time to say anything before it hit the driver's door of the car I was in, my driver never saw it because it was coming from an acute angle behind his vision and I was turned looking at him.
Another time I was driving with two passengers and saw a car locked up and skidding towards us in the rear view mirror, again I didn't have time to say anything before the impact. Knowing something bad is coming and not being able to share it is an uncomfortable feeling if only for an instant.
If I have a chance to warn someone of what I sincerely believe to be an oncoming disaster and I choose not to do so am I a good neighbor?
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Black voters like her, trust her, and think she is honest.