How the Democratic Race Will Probably End

[StevieM]

~snip~

Barring something truly extraordinary, Hillary Clinton will be declared the presumptive nominee for president by the news media, probably on Tuesday after the results in New Jersey. It will happen even if she loses every remaining contest, and it will probably happen before the polls even close in California (no doubt igniting the fury of some Bernie Sanders supporters).

Mrs. Clinton has 2,310 delegates, according to The Associated Press, putting her just 73 short of the 2,383 needed to win the nomination.

She will cover at least half the distance this weekend, when Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands hold caucuses worth a combined 79 delegates.

She would then go over the top with New Jersey, not long after 8 p.m. on Tuesday, as Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight has pointed out. The state is worth 142 delegates, and Mrs. Clinton will be awarded many of them when the polls close.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/02/upshot/how-the-democratic-race-will-probably-end.html

[geek tragedy]

1. The race ends Tuesday night.

Whether the losing candidate will admit it, no one knows.

[msongs]

2. new jersey is rigged, CA is fraud, Puerto Rico is cheated etc unless Bernie wins of course then it

all never happened

[StevieM]

3. You will like the other post I just put up.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512113399

[RobertEarl]

4. Including supers is just wrong

You would think you would know better by now?

[MillennialDem]

6. The sad truth is, I think the supers would vote for Hillary even if she lost or was indicted. Only

way they'd vote for Bernie is if Hillary was in jail or way way behind. If it's close they'd probably throw it to her (corruption).

[RobertEarl]

7. No

They are not stupid. They see what's coming. Sure, they didn't see Bernie coming, but now he's in their face.

I really see a good chance enough supers vote for Bernie.

[MillennialDem]

8. Only if Hillary is indicted or some MAJOR scandal breaks. And even then maybe not. They're

not going to vote for him because he is a better general election candidate. They're establishment hacks and Bernie represents busting the entire system (on both sides of the aisle).

[onenote]

9. The vast majority of supers are the Democratic establishment that Bernie criticizes

They aren't switching over to him. Get used to that simple political reality.

[StevieM]

10. He would have to win almost all of them. Right now he is winning almost none of them.

I just don't see them giving their near-unanimous support to a candidate who is millions of votes behind his opponent.

[RobertEarl]

12. You think they are stupid?

Well, you're entitled to your opinions.

They see the writing on the wall and they will be seeing it again and again for the next 50+ days.

First line in your OP:
"Barring something truly extraordinary,"

Bernie is, and so is the FBI investigation, so there's your something truly extraordinary,

[StevieM]

13. Didn't you see where I wrote: "~snip~?"

Man, it was complicated to figure out the proper grammar in the heading of this post, LOL.

Anyway, that wasn't my first line, it was a quote from the article.

Still...I guess your point is the same either way.

I just don't see Hillary being indicted, no matter how convinced some people are that she is about to be.

And even if Hillary did have to step down for some reason, like health concerns, I still can't imagine that Bernie would be nominated. Even then, the convention would turn to Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren.

But there is no reason to believe that Hillary has health problems and there is no reason to believe that she is about to be indicted. I fully expect that she will be the nominee of our party.

[RobertEarl]

17. You just hate Bernie?

What did he do to you?

You have all these wild opinions about the FBI not doing its job and then about putting Biden in.

Really, I don't think you have been thinking any of this thru to the logical conclusions.

[StevieM]

19. I don't hate Bernie at all. Most Democrats like both candidates IMO.

I think Bernie has been a good senator and has added a lot to this campaign.

I don't think it is a wild opinion to suggest that the former Secretary of State is not going to be indicted.

I didn't say that they were going to put Biden in. I said that I don't believe for a minute that anyone other than Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. And if for some bizarre reason she wasn't, like if she suddenly had health problems, I actually think they would be more likely to turn to Elizabeth Warren.

I believe that I have come to logical conclusions--they just aren't the same conclusions as the ones that you have reached.

[SFnomad]

5. It just might take until the polls close in California before they give Secretary Clinton the title

of Presumptive Nominee. Even though they'll likely call New Jersey pretty quickly ... starting to count up the actual delegates it translates into doesn't happen until precincts start submitting their vote totals, so it could take a couple of hours before Secretary Clinton has secured enough pledged delegates to go over the top.

Then again, the networks could assume right at 1 second after the NJ polls close too.

[Txbluedog]

11. Depends on what she needs

I think it is pretty safe to assume that she'll get 60 of the 142 delegates from NJ, so they might call her presumptive nominee as soon as the polls close

[SFnomad]

14. If they have her taking at least 50% of the vote ... that just might be the case n/t

[SFnomad]

15. btw, NJ only has 126 Pledged Delegates ... 142 includes the Superdelegates n/t

[RelativelyJones]

16. She will probably get more like 80 in NJ

Obama is very popular in NJ, and Sanders has been basically running against Obama's record while Clinton is running to build on it.

[eastwestdem]

18. And, as soon as Hillary is declared the presumptive nominee...

Starting Wednesday, the campaign is ready to roll out all the big Democratic endorsements that have been waiting for the primary to end.

Heard this today from one of Hillary's senior policy advisers at a fundraising event.

[StevieM]

20. I agree. I think she probably had about hundred extra SDs in the bank, ready to endorse her.

She doesn't trot them out yet because she wants to go over the top with a victory in state that is voting. New Jersey will do that for her on Tuesday night.

And I assume that the big Democratic endorsements include names like Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Al Gore and Jimmy Carter. Not to mention Elizabeth Warren.