ARG NJ: Hillary 60, Bernie 37; CA: Hillary 48, Sanders 47

[firebrand80]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/njdem.html

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/cadem.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I will take it but ARG has a terrible track record.

[Agschmid]

2. Nail biter...

Except it's not.

At all.

[CrowCityDem]

3. NJ ends the Bernie charade!

[DCBob]

4. Jersey will be a blowout.

[itsrobert]

5. Clinton: 5 pt lead in CA early voting.

And tied for preference for Election day. Someone help me out with the Bernie math.

[Democrats Ascendant]

7. Excellent challenge, I'll try:

It means a Sanders landslide victory:

Take one for each bird that lands
Multiplied by each warmongering, corporatist superdelegate Clinton gets
Squared by the number of reposts on DU
Add in all the emails
Carry the one
Equals unicorns, free stuff, and the political rapture

[MoonRiver]

12. Hahaha, good one!

[Surya Gayatri]

15. Bwaahaaaa! Well done...

[basselope]

11. Bernie wins CA easily.

[LiberalFighter]

6. Only 400 likely voters? IMO that is not a good sampling.

This is not a non presidential primary or a general election. Presidential primaries are a different animal as the state is a diverse state. What happens in one congressional district would not necessarily happen in another district. Congressional districts don't all have the same diversity either.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

14. Standard deviation of about 10 = 2.5%

So 48-47 is well within the MoE, but 60-37 is massively significant.

[LiberalFighter]

17. I could see it acceptable if it was based solely on the state.

But the Democratic Party does not apportion all of the delegates based on the state wide election results. There are 53 congressional districts and the diversity is different in each district.

It would be similar to not applying state wide results to a congressional district with congressional races or other local races.

[SheenaR]

8. I just don't understand why you all think we give a shit about how Jersey goes

Has one Sanders supporter said a single thing about NJ?

It's all about California. Bernie wins California, NJ barely makes the front page.

And I mean no disrespect to the Garden State. If Sanders' strategy is to change minds, a win in California does it and nothing else.

[firebrand80]

10. If you don't care about NJ, you don't care about winning nt

[SheenaR]

13. Sure thing

It's only about winning. And it's about hundreds of Supers waking up and realizing 4 more years in the WH is in grasp if they select the right candidate.

The state of the race is vastly different than 16 months ago when 400 supers pledged, different than when Iowa voted, different than March 1.

It's about California. If Bernie loses, then we cross our fingers and hope that Clinton makes it through November unscathed.

[LoverOfLiberty]

16. The Garden State

gonna seal the deal for Hillary!