What happens if Bernie wins California and "marches into convention with enormous momentum"?

[kentuck]

But is behind in total delegates count, including the "super delegates"?

What can he do to get the "super delegates" to change their vote and vote for him?

If he has the majority of pledged delegates, shouldn't he take the fight to the floor?

But, if he does not have the majority of pledged delegates and is far behind in super delegates, how far should he take it?

[msongs]

1. momentum of falling yet further behind in delegate count? "winning" a state has no real value

if it does not result in a gain of delegates. in his case he needs a huge gain.

[redstateblues]

4. a close win is no different than a loss for Bernie

it won't change anything.

[RandySF]

2. Hillary is nominated.

New Jersey will seal it before the polls close here.

[lagomorph777]

5. Welcome back to the future, doc

at least in your dreams...

Do you ever wonder what will happen in the GE, when Trump trumpets email, videos of her wall street speeches, etc 24/7 on TrumpTV?

[emulatorloo]

8. What will happen when he keeps attacking "Mexican Heritage" 24/7?

Hard to know how this will all play out, isn't it. But I am not sure alienating minority voters is going to be a winning strategy for him.

[lagomorph777]

9. Yeah, battle of the uglies

I think I'll turn off the TV until November if the coronation goes through.

[emulatorloo]

11. Totally get that

[Lord Magus]

46. None of that would have even the slightest impact. Nobody would care.

And if there were videos we'd have already seen them, unless of course there's just nothing interesting in the videos. That would be the only reason for them not to be already leaked.

[MFM008]

65. Trump is doing this already

e mails...........Vince Foster.................. yada yada.
The question is Mr Sanders KNEW what the process was when he signed up to be a democrat and run under democratic party rules.
That means delegates and super delegates.
Just because Sanders may LIKE doing what hes doing doesn't mean it will count in the scheme of things.

[scscholar]

79. Arguably, he didn't know the rules...

since he parachuted into the party at the last minute.

[Demsrule86]

71. That has been going on forever

so what. Trump is a nutter and a racist...plenty won't vote for him.

[CorporatistNation]

89. These Folks Got Their Heads Down So Deep In The Sand That They Will Just Continue To Ignore All...

That IS FACTUAL and continue on in THEIR fantasyland...

And continue to Cheer and Advocate for THIS... e.g., MSNBC To the deniers... Watch THIS Video... It is not comforting to think that she may well be the Democratic Nominee...

Hillary really betrayed Andrea Mitchell... The entire context of this report was of a solemn nature... A Funeral so to speak...

Andrea Mitchell "I do not see this report as ...ANYTHING BUT... DEVASTATING!"

Chuck Todd "After this I don't think that she could get confirmed for Attorney General!"

Lots of FIBBING by Hillary here.. for more than a year!

[brooklynite]

3. Is Sanders wins California he'll still be way behind in votes and pledged delegates.

And he still won't have a reason to give Superdelegates to change.

[LexVegas]

6. I love the way the fucking standards change when a woman is the nominee. nt

[JimDandy]

17. Let's discuss the Unprecedented, vote nullifying, standard

Clinton devised last month for Democrats in Nevada, which voided all votes cast at all NV County Democratic Conventions statewide.

UNPRECDENTED - as in No Democratic State Party nationwide has ever done that before.

How much do you fucking love that standard?

After 35+ years as a life-long Democrat, I recently left the party directly due to the anti-democratic shenanigans her campaign pulled in Nevada.

What Clinton has done, does, and will do to secure the nomination has everything to do with winning at all costs and nothing to do with your sexist whining about her being a woman.

[LexVegas]

18. Losing hurts, huh? nt

[JimDandy]

23. Ah, so predictable. A flaming apologist for all things Hillary, even the undermining

of democracy by the very "woman" (as if her gender is of more value than her actions ) who erased all the votes of Nevada Hillary supporters across the state.

You are in excellent company, though: not a single one of your compadres has denounced what she did. You all's embarrasment over that is understandable, but your silence is lethal to democracy.

Anyone supporting Bernie and Progressive policies is a winner.

The loser club awaits your Nov arrival.

Tik Tok Tik Tok

[geek tragedy]

35. you obviously have zero idea of how the NV system works

the state's at large delegates to the DNC are determined in a three step process:

Step 1: caucuses are conducted to select county convention delegates

Step 2: county conventions are held to select statewide delegates

Step 3: the state convention is held to select the at-large delegates to the national convention.

The numbers for the at-large delegates are not determined until the statewide convention. Just like the county conventions changed the numbers from the day-of caucus voting based on who bothered to show up, so the statewide convention changed the numbers from the county conventions based on who showed up.

TL; DR Clinton won Nevada twice, and people complaining that Bernie was robbed are spreading falsehoods.

[JimDandy]

40. The rule change that Clinton engineered at the state convention

was the rule to throw out the delegate vote counts she and Bernie earned at the county level convention (Bernie was the winner of that level) and replace them with the delegate counts they both received at the caucus level (Hillary was the winner at that level). That rule was the among the very first items put up for a vote at the state convention. That is part of what started the whole hulabaloo.

I am very familiar with the caucus system. It was/is the process used for the Dem Primary in every state I have ever voted in. We have a 4-level convention system in WA! I have been a delegate several times at the lower levels and have attended every convention level except the National.

[geek tragedy]

41. that is simply and completely false, and also egregiously hypocritical

you have zero problem with the county conventions nullifying the actual voting on the day of the caucuses, but you treat the county convention results as sacrosanct.

That is good old fashioned horse puckey.


Sanders gained relative to Clinton at the county convention stage because a lot of her people didn't show up at county conventions.

Clinton gained that ground back at the state convention because a lot of Sanders people didn't show up.

The county convention totals were not set in stone, just like the day-of caucus totals were not set in stone.

Simple math--there were more Clinton delegates present at the state convention than there were Sanders delegates.

There was no rule change that caused Clinton to win more national delegates. Clinton won more national delegates because she had more statewide delegates attending the state convention.

[Lord Magus]

47. That is an outright lie. County conventions were not "voided." Period.

[frylock]

30. I love the way everything is about race or sex for you.

E V E R Y T H I N G

[JudyM]

48. ^^^^^^!!!!!!!!^^^^^^!!!!!!!^^^^^^^!!!!!! (this)

Aw, poor Hillary. She never did anything to make people mistrust and dramatically disfavor her, it's just the fact that she's a woman that so many democratic progressives can't stand.

[Scootaloo]

61. When you have no positions, you have to default to identity

[Scootaloo]

60. You mean like the enormous double standards held when a Jewish person is a candidate?

[grossproffit]

66. Ding, ding, ding!

[skylucy]

68. Yes. It is amazing, isn't it? Thank you for pointing that out. The more I see this double-standard

play out during this campaign, the more I admire Hillary. She is strong, capable, confident and BRILLIANT! HILLARY 2016!

[Tal Vez]

7. Obviously, only Sanders can decide what he will do under those circumstances.

I voted for Clinton, but I have always liked Sanders. I can understand why it would be difficult for him to withdraw before the California primary. There are many, many people out there (many of them newcomers to campaigns) who have worked their hearts out for Sanders in California. They want to show what they can do. It's very difficult to just take the tents down before the voting takes place.

What Sanders will do after the primary, only Sanders knows. But, one way or the other, I am confident that he will support the Democratic nominee. I believe that he really means it when he warns about the dangers of a Trump presidency.

[BeyondGeography]

10. You know if he ekes out a win in CA, but gets blown out of PR, NM and NJ

he'll be falling all over himself with fauxmentum. Some people will reasonably find that annoying.

So, in that case, he'll act as if it's game on and people like Reid and Warren will start telling him to cut the shit behind the scenes. I expect he'll come to his senses sooner or later but it will take too long and leave a mark. Until he gets up at the convention and tears Donald Trumps some new openings, at which point all will be forgiven.

The other thing for him to think about is he won't just be sharing the stage with Hillary anymore. Bill will have his airtime, Hillary's running mate, and, of course, Obama, followed by HRC's acceptance speech; all of these things will be a bigger deal than the runner-up's speech. Bernie is going to be seriously downsized, which explains why he is milking the present for all it's worth.

[eastwestdem]

12. The problem is that even if he wins CA, the 'momentum' won't last more than a couple of days.

Once Hillary is declared the presumptive nominee, the media will switch to GE mode, and it will be all about Trump v. Clinton from next Tuesday night on out. Adding to the media frenzy will be all the Democratic 'big wig' endorsements that will happen via a series of well-hyped press conferences next week. There really won't be any media time left to follow a second placed finisher, who at most might have some minor influence on the non-consequential party platform.

[SidDithers]

13. If Bernie wins California...

then he'll march into the convention in second place, and Hillary will officially win the nomination on the first ballot.

If Bernie loses California, then he'll march into the convention in second place, and Hillary will officially win the nomination on the first ballot.

Sid

[Matt_R]

98. Elvis never did no drugs. n/t

[Fumesucker]

14. Bernie has to drop out so if HRC is indicted Biden can be parachuted into the candidacy at the DNC

By now the top players in DC know what's coming one way or another and plans are being made.

Bernie with an active campaign would be the presumptive nominee if HRC drops out, the establishment will never let that happen.

[RufusTFirefly]

33. Yes. Dave Zirin made that point (sort of) on "The Collision"

The more delegates Bernie has, the harder it will be to simply swap in Smilin' Joe when it becomes obvious that sticking with Hillary risks disaster.

The fewer delegates Bernie has, the less brazen deposing him will seem.

[Renew Deal]

91. Might be harder, but it will happen

And everyone will sleep well that night.

[geek tragedy]

36. you're not clapping loud enough for the Indictment Fairy

you should dig up some Fox News links to show us how the Indictment Fairy is real

See you in December!

[Lord Magus]

54. The indictment fairy isn't coming and nobody has fantasy plans to replace Hillary with Biden.

Quit playing Republican games by expecting such things.

[Hiraeth]

74. As if Biden even wants it.

[Fumesucker]

84. I'm not sure Biden wants it either but he'll take one for the team if necessary

I've been thinking on this for a while and I can't come up with another possible candidate that would have a prayer of pulling it off except maybe Warren and I'm pretty sure she's not going to take one for the team.

[Marr]

81. Yep-- I really think that's why their demands that he drop out are suddenly getting so

apeshit frantic.

[Renew Deal]

92. Maybe it's not the conspiratorial reason you think

Maybe they just want to move on to the Democratic election because Bernie lost every measure and winning in November is the most important thing.

Bernie will not get the nomination under any scenario. You may not like it, but that's the way it is.

[Renew Deal]

90. But that's the thing. Bernie will not be given the nominaiton either way.

The delegates are not obligated to support Bernie just because he happened to run this time. The majority has endured the harassment and the threats from the Bernie camp. They will easily have the votes for Biden with room to spare.

[Fumesucker]

94. I agree, they'd rather even Trump than Sanders

I've been saying that all along.

[Renew Deal]

96. If that's true, it's Sanders fault.

Him and his supporters have turned friends into enemies.

[MineralMan]

15. In that case, Hillary Clinton becomes the nominee.

The people have voted. She will have the majority of pledged delegates and will be nominated.

The second place candidate will not be the nominee. So simple.

[lmbradford]

16. The Supers will switch

If he has more pledged delegates, the Supers will not want to thwart the will of the people.

[onenote]

20. and how does he get more pledged delegates?

[Stuckinthebush]

82. They are still working on that math

The abacus broke.

[Lord Magus]

51. A win in CA doesn't give him a delegates majority though. Not unless he gets upward of 75%.

That is if the other states go as expected of course.

[lmbradford]

67. Actually its 68%

Very doable in CA.

[Lord Magus]

69. Only if you completely ignore the big wins Hillary's on the way to in PR, NJ and NM.

And what evidence is there to suggest that even 68% is "very doable"?

[Demsrule86]

72. He can't get more delegates...it is not possible nt

[onenote]

19. If Sanders wins California but loses big in New Mexico and New Jersey

Why is he the one with "enormous momentum"?

[JimDandy]

24. The winner of CA will have enormous momentum because it is the stalwart

of the party: the bluest, most liberal, most pro-Democratic state in the country. Clinton needs to win there or her "weak Dem primary candidate" label becomes set in stone as "weak GE candidate"

Sanders will be able to win CA, if the NPP voters are not stymied from voting for him. 2016 Registered CA Dem voters =about 7.7 million; 2016 Registered CA NPP (Independents) votes=about 4.2 million.

Sanders has the support of 40-45% of the Dem base nationwide. For the GE, add in the Independents (46% of all voters nationwide) and it becomes clear that he would be the winner of the GE.

[onenote]

26. You're right. Losing California stopped Carter and Obama dead in their tracks

Oh wait ...

[Fresh_Start]

31. +1 nt

nt

[Nye Bevan]

32. CA was a devastating loss for Obama, and made many superdelegates switch to Hillary,

or at least that's what should have happened based on the narrative many are pushing here.

[JimDandy]

39. CA wasn't in play in 2008 as far as weakness of a candidate

goes and the momentum factor. In 2008, the CA primary was very early in the race: on Super Tuesday in February.
So Hillary's win in CA in 2008, didn't correlate with momentum for her, nor did Obama's loss there translate to candidate weakness for Obama. Those are supposed to be determining considerations for superdelegates, and were the specific reasons why the party created the role of superdelegates.

[onenote]

42. so contests early on don't create momentum, but contests at the end do?

momentum for what? the primaries will be over, so momentum for that. The conventions aren't for another month, the VP hasn't even been named, so you can't seriously be talking about momentum for the general be seriously impacted.

Candidates have won California and lost the nomination. Candidates have lost California and won the nomination. Candidates have lost California and won it the general and won the general. Candidates have won California in the primary, won it in the general and lost the general.

Too much emphasis is being placed on a end of primary contest that will, in all likelihood, whose only significant impact on the outcome likely will be to push Clinton over 2026, win or lose.

[Lord Magus]

52. Superdelegates will NOT simply overthrow democracy "beacuse momentum."

It's just not happening. The only thing that's going to get supers to switch would be for Bernie to get an actual majority of pledged delegates. Same thing that it took for them to switch to Obama in '08.

[Recursion]

83. It was on Super Tuesday in 2008, though, which Obama "won" in terms of the whole day

Though I guess this is sort of a mini Super Tuesday this week.

[JimDandy]

38. The CA primary is very late in the race this time around.

In 2008, CA voted on super tuesday in February. CA wasn't in play for the momentum factor, as evidenced by Hillary's win in the state but loss of the nomination.

Momentum is a driving factor. And the perception that Hillary is a weak candidate will only grow if she loses there now, this late in the race.

[Renew Deal]

95. Momentum like "perception" will be meaningless

Because Hillary will have won the measure that matters... The delegate count. It would go something like this:

"Hillary Clinton is now the Democratic Nominee by reaching the majority of delegates after winning the NJ primary. She lost CA, but still maintains a significant lead over Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders moaned, groaned, and promised to do all kinds of terrible things. These threats don't matter."

[Demsrule86]

73. Sorry to burst your bubble. Pres. Obama lost California in 08 and eight other late primaries.

Pres. Obama still won and so will Sec. Clinton.

[Renew Deal]

93. So what?

It's a meaningless label unlike Hillary's label of Democratic Nominee.

[beachbum bob]

21. I guess...he sulks because super delegate know

Bernies record and know the GOP would destroy him ever so easy. Nothing will change.. California doesn't matter as Hillary has already won..

[Peacetrain]

22. He does not have the votes kentuck..

He can win California.. damned if I know what will happen there..but she is just far ahead already and has millions more votes banked than Bernie..and and the super delegates are not going to give someone who has millions less votes the nod..

[stevenleser]

25. There is nothing that can happen in the remaining contests that will help Bernie. It's over. nt

[Nye Bevan]

27. It would be like a 69-90 baseball team ending the season with a 3-game winning streak.

Feels good, but wins in September don't count any more than wins in April, and your team still isn't going anywhere despite your last-minute "momentum".

[stevenleser]

29. That's a good way of putting it. You aren't going to the playoffs let alone win the World Series. nt

[onenote]

43. There is no NIT for the runner up.

[geek tragedy]

28. he gets denied a speaking slot, loses every single procedural and substantive vote

and Hillary is named the nominee easily on the first ballot, and becomes known not as a champion on the issues, but as the most narcissistic, self-entitled sore loser in modern political history

this is a buzzer beater in a basketball game when one team is up by 15

[frylock]

34. Love & Kindness.

[auntpurl]

37. Same thing that happened to Obama in 08

when he lost CA. He won the nomination.

[BreakfastClub]

64. Exactly. Didn't Hillary win the final 4-5 states? She also had the popular vote. Didn't matter. nt

[cliffordu]

44. Shit hits the fan, mayhem,

People setting their hair on fire, cats and dogs marry, stuff like that.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

45. He'd have to win really big in CA

60/40 or better. Anything less will simply be attributed to Hillary not putting in the effort. In addition, he'd have to win or put up a really strong showing in Jersey. Even then, I'm not sure he'd convince enough supers to switch. That would, however, be the only slim shot I see for him.

[LoverOfLiberty]

50. 80/20 after the beatdown he's gonna get

in NJ

[Algernon Moncrieff]

55. Realistically, I don't see it at any level

Even if Sanders pulls an upset in CA (big IF) it's more likely going to be 53/47, 52/48, 51/49 -- somewhere in that neighborhood. The delegates would just about be evenly divided. Meanwhile, I see nothing to indicate Hillary isn't going to win Jersey big.

Sanders can go on and try to raise a stink at the convention. It won't get him nominated; however it will piss a lot of people off. He is smart enough to know that.

[Demsrule86]

75. He can't win big enough

Jersey will put her over the top.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

86. As a practical matter, I agree with you.

I'm only speculating on what it might take to trigger this outbreak of magical thinking among the SDs that many here expect to see. To be clear: I'm planning on Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the presumptive nominee on Wednesday, and expect her to win the nomination on the first ballot in Philly.

[LoverOfLiberty]

49. He will most likely still lose the nomination

and return to the Senate in January.

[grasswire]

53. remember what Hillary said

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- For the second time in three days, Sen. Hillary Clinton told reporters that the pledged delegates awarded based on vote totals in their state are not bound to abide by election results.

Sen. Hillary Clinton lags behind Sen. Barack Obama in the popular vote and in pledged delegates.

It's an idea that has been floated by her or a campaign surrogate nearly half a dozen times this month.

Sen. Barack Obama leads Clinton among all Democratic delegates, 1,622 to 1,485, in the latest CNN count. Among pledged delegates, Obama leads Clinton 1,413 to 1,242.

"Every delegate with very few exceptions is free to make up his or her mind however they choose," Clinton told Time's Mark Halperin in an interview published Wednesday.
"We talk a lot about so-called pledged delegates, but every delegate is expected to exercise independent judgment," she said.

Clinton's remarks echoed her Monday comments to the editorial board of the Philadelphia Daily News.

"And also remember that pledged delegates in most states are not pledged," she said Monday. "You know there is no requirement that anybody vote for anybody. They're just like superdelegates."

Clinton also made similar comments in a Newsweek interview published two weeks ago

[Garrett78]

56. Losing CA would ding Clinton, but she'll still end up with a clear majority of pledged delegates.

How far should Sanders take it? To the end of the primaries. And then he should concede, endorse Clinton and do what he can to continue pushing for reform.

[Lord Magus]

57. The nomination's decided by voting, not "momentum."

If Sanders has fewer than 2026 pledged delegates (and it would take a miracle for him to reach that mark) the supers aren't going to switch. Winning CA would not give him a majority of pledged delegates, not unless he gets more than 75% of the vote.

[Zambero]

58. Hillary took CA in '08 by a wide margin

But Obama still crossed the finish line first. History has been known to repeat itself.

[Scootaloo]

59. Then we'll hear that majority-nonwhite California is "too white to count"

[jamese777]

62. 2008 California Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton: 51%
Barack Obama: 43%

[cloudythescribbler]

63. too many people on this thread ignore importance of Bernie's strength on OTHER than nomination ...

Bernie obviously intends to try to influence the party -- it's platform, leadership, structure & so forth. Beyond his own delegates, unless there is a cracked-whip kind of discipline maintained (as has happened in Democratic Conventions before, eg on 'no first use' resolutions) many of his ideas would have a serious chance at the Convention

If the Dem leadership is BOTH smart AND trying to win, they will let Bernie win on a wide range of concerns that do not threaten to weaken Hillary's tally in November. (probably, eg, they won't budge much on Israel/Palestine for that reason -- but there are MANY issues where they could budge, even if, like opposing closed primaries, it might endanger their much-treasured control over the Party over the longer term)

But I suspect that, like threads on DU that ask "why doesn't Bernie just go away", there are for whatever reason too many surrogates and Hillary herself is not eager to take the lead against the powerful interests, eg, insisting on not giving ground on fracking, demanding at least the public release of all the chemicals BEFORE there is any more fracking, and other issues driven by powerful interests MORE THAN popular opinion) so that Hillary will not win over as many Sanderistas as might otherwise be possible

Then, if Trump does win in Nov, which is a very serious possibility, the stage is set to scapegoat the Left just like in 2000, but with a whole lot less plausibility (not that that will matter much in the MSM)

I am a Bernie supporter who will support the nominee -- as Bernie has also promised to do -- but the attitude, not truly curbed at this late date, of all too many HRC supporters, is ONLY having the effect of increasing the number of Bernie supporters who do NOT turn out for her in Nov

[Demsrule86]

77. Absolutely not

The convention is not about Bernie. He will play by the rules and make his mark on the party at a different time...no Bernie dramatics. If Trump were to win ...no question Bernie gets blamed, and you can argue all you want but that is a fact...the 2016 Nader only way worse...he goes down in history not as a leader of a revolution that helped implement progressive policy but as a spoiler who cost the Dems the courts (Roe V Wade) and all progressive wins since Roosevelt gone with a GOP in control of the entire government.

[Demsrule86]

70. It is statistically impossible at this point

for Bernie to have the majority of pledged delegates...so he still loses. She has the delegates...Obama lost California...but he still won. It is over for Bernie.

[beachbum bob]

76. momnetun means notheing when you already lost

simple sports analogy that most should understand....you are down in a basketball game after 3 quarters by 50 points and you score 30 more points than other team in the 4th quarter...you still LOSE

momentum means nothing

[MrMickeysMom]

78. Watch...

I know what I'm doing to reach out to my state's super D's. I just mailed all of them and will follow it up with a phone call. I will continue to phone bank. I will continue to reach those who would rather I don't bother them with details.

I predict some serious change. It won't be easy, but that's never stopped truth to power if it means as much as I think it does.

[Agnosticsherbet]

80. In 2008, Clinton won California by 8.3%. She lost the primary and so would Sanders.

He loses because Clinton will have won a simple majority of pledged delegates, a large majority of Democratic votes, and the most states.

What can he do to convince superdelegates to tell a majority of Democrats that their votes to matter?

It isn't their job to coronate someone who did not win the majority of votes in the Democratic party.

[Waiting For Everyman]

85. The FBI being involved means all prior norms are inapplicable.

He needs to take his case to the supers and then make them vote formally on it in public if they are going to persist in this suicidal nomination, because they will be 100% responsible for the disaster which follows from it. They should not be let off easy by shortening the process.

They need to own this decision. Sanders will make sure they do own it, and I am glad he has the guts to do that for all of us.

[onenote]

87. They will vote formally on it.

But its not as if the supers aren't aware of the email issues. Yet it hasn't kept them from committing to Clinton and they haven't switched so far. And once Clinton gets a majority of the pledged delegates, it will become even that much harder to convince them to switch so long as Clinton is in the race.

And when Obama, and Biden, and Warren, all announce their support for Clinton, the supers are going to even less likely to switch and Sanders will look more and more isolated on a fantasy island of his own making.

[Waiting For Everyman]

88. Nonsense.

We'll see what July brings.

[oberliner]

97. Tre is no scenario where he will have the majority of pledged delegates

Hillary will definitely have more than Bernie.