FLORIDA: Cllinton - 45% Trump - 42% ; Sanders 42% Trump 42%; Biden 50% Trump 40%

[woolldog]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mason_Dixon_FL_June_2016.pdf

"In a hypothetical match up, Biden holds a strong lead over Trump (50% 40%), while Sanders can only muster a 42%-42% tie. Biden’s high favorable rating and relatively low negatives compared to the other candidates is a big factor."

Interesting....

[Joe the Revelator]

1. The Biden bit is VERY interesting...

[Skwmom]

6. Biden has been out of the limelight. Plus. I wonder about the age breakdowns...

[Democrats Ascendant]

2. Meh.

I love Biden, but everyone is more popular when they're not actively on the campaign trail. No negatives, hyper-scrutiny, etc. These hypotheticals are pretty meaningless. I think the end result in FL will be much stronger for Clinton.

[woolldog]

3. A 3 point win by HRC in FL would be a great margin.

Obama won FL in 2012 by less than 100,000 votes, out of 8 million + cast.

In 2008, Obama won FL by about 2% points.

[Democrats Ascendant]

9. Indeed, but I get the feeling she can do even better.

Lots of retirees and Latinos with a lot on the line. I'm hopeful anyways, would love that state become a solid blue from here on out!

[LonePirate]

4. Do those numbers mean the SDs should support the most electable candidate (Biden)?

[woolldog]

5. Bad Pirate,

bad.

[LonePirate]

7. I'm glad somebody else has a sense of humor around here.

[CrowCityDem]

8. What happened to Bernie always polling better?

[Democrats Ascendant]

10. This is not a good state for him.

He got walloped by Clinton in the primary and I do think he would lose FL in the general.

[mythology]

12. I don't think he'd lose it in the general

He lost in the primary at least partially because Hispanics have voted with Clinton. But in the general, the other option with be Trump. I'm pretty sure Hispanic voters (among other groups) will be motivated to vote for either Clinton or Sanders.

[RichVRichV]

11. Hard to get a good reading from it with party demographic sampling.

2012 General Demographic Breakdowns by Party: Democrat (35%), Republican (33%), Independent (33%)


This polls Demographic Breakdowns by Party: Democrat (41%), Republican (37%), Independent (22%)


Democrats are being oversampled by 6 points, Republicans are being oversampled by 4 points, and Independents are being under-sampled by 11 points (versus 2012 general election). The age demographics aren't bad. 18-34 are being undersampled by about 6 points and 65+ are oversampled by about 6 points.


That's no where near the worse sampling I've seen this cycle, but it definitely favors the parties and our party in particular. Maybe they're expecting a massive downturn in Independent voters.