2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSince Hillary will hit the delegate mark by Tuesday
I think the remaining Superdelegates will start declaring themselves for her. Maybe a few might break away, but I'm positive the bulk of them will be ready to fall in line behind the party's nominee.
I was hoping they would use this weekend to declare their intentions and put her over her mark by the time voting starts on Tuesday, but I guess not. I have no problem waiting a few days to get a definite answer from the Supers.
I hope people are not even considering disrupting our Democratic Convention. No over the top behaviour will be tolerated and even delegates can be removed from the floor for being disruptive.
We will not have a floor fight. Or a riot. The rules of order will be followed and I hope to not see any booing of any of our speakers from the audience. If so, I am pretty sure that they will be removed.
I hope the veiled threats of unruly activity being planned for the convention are discarded immediately. Time to behave like adults and win the general election.
Might be best if the remaining Supers begin to declare for Hillary soon. It will help people come to grips with the fact that there is no real chance that the nominee will be anyone other than Hillary Clinton. The fantasy needs to end, we have a fight to win and a floor fight at the convention will help no one but Donald Trump.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)saying they will vote for her because she won the popular vote, and stating they won't change their mind, and that they won't accept calls from Bernie or his team.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)This fantasy has gone on too long. People are starting to have full faith in the delegates flipping.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Or just throwing shit against the wall as usual
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)like Bernie deciding that he wouldn't want a nomination to be stolen on his behalf.
Absent that, someone will have to have the talk with him so this kind of letter is not necessary.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)A Bernie nomination would be stolen based on the established rules of our Party.
There is no possible explanation. You can't steal if the rules are set up to protect us from nominating an absolute train wreck.
And a victory Tuesday in the Golden State will even further that case
LuvLoogie
(6,933 posts)Hillary will hit it Tuesday night. Bernie will never get there. Most Democrats want Hillary to be our nominee. She will have won the primary on Tuesday. Bernie's argument will not be persuasive, your assessment of her electability notwithstanding.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)candidate who would have moral legitimacy. And following the rules isn't the same as being morally legitimate or respecting democracy.
Anyone who has advocated for superdelegates to disenfranchise Clinton's voters has outed themselves as an authoritarian and situational ethicist.
Such people respect the sanctity of the vote less than Katherine Harris.
moriah
(8,311 posts).. to switch to get the magic majority of 2383, he's got no chance.
Let's say a miracle occurs and Bernie gets within 50 pledged delegates of 2026. (Since all Hillary needs to clench a pledged delegate majority is 250 more pldedged delegates, if she gets 50% of Puerto Rico, 55% of New Jersey and just 35% of California votes, not even counting other states, she will have a pledged majority Tuesday.) Hillary at 2075, Bernie at 1976, say.
He would have to convince 361 more SDs than his current 46, either currently saying they support Hillary or aren't committed.
So, yes, a letter from 325+ who have absolutely no intention of changing their minds to support him would settle the issue.
If the margin of victory is more, fewer SDs ststing their intentions to stay firm for Hillary would be required.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)She won't have it then. Maybe never.
The contested convention will be a real eye-opener and an education for lots of youngsters who don't yet grok politics.
This is gonna be a blast. I am so looking forward to Bernie people flooding Philly and exercising their right to free speech.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)But I mean what I write. For some I get that they don't get it. That's ok, I forgive them.
annavictorious
(934 posts)When you use the word "grok" don't be surprised if people are bewildered.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Maybe new to youngsters?
It actually means the opposite of bewildered.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)Was "cool" about 20 years ago.
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)MyNameGoesHere
(7,638 posts)I just know it was weird then and now.
Demsrule86
(68,469 posts)means Bernie has one vote which he loses and out he goes...he looks foolish too.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)It was in the tragedy you wrote.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)No delegates are counted until the convention. We then count them all up together at once. But we still add them all together even before the convention. And nothing will stop us or stop the media from counting them all together now.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Gothmog
(144,936 posts)In every other contested democratic primary since the creation of super delegates, the presumptive nominee is declared based on super delegates. I guess that Sanders is special and so we have to use different rules.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Gothmog
(144,936 posts)The fact that you disagree with this announcement is meaningless but amusing. Here are press clippings from every other contested Democratic primary and the press ignored your amusing but wrong theory in all of these announcements of the presumptive nominee
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?1464616682
Sanders does not get special treatment and the press will not care about your amusing theory. The announcement on or before Tuesday will signal the true end of the primary process even if you and the Sanders supporters do not like this end
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Gothmog
(144,936 posts)In the real world, Sanders does not get to establish a special set of silly rules so that he is treated different than every other losing candidate in a Democratic primary fight. The fact that the Sanders supports dislike these rules and want a different set just for Sanders is amusing to me.
LonePirate
(13,408 posts)I swear some Bernie supporters are suffering from an eight year memory loss.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Bernie isn't a quitter.
LonePirate
(13,408 posts)No candidate ever says they are going to quit until they actually do quit. Bernie is no different.
The media will call it for Hillary once the polls close in NJ. If Bernie does not concede after the results come in for CA, look for Obama and Biden to endorse Hillary on Wednesday and the entire Democratic party will pressure Bernie to concede. This race is over whether you want to accept that fact or not.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)LonePirate
(13,408 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)LonePirate
(13,408 posts)Well done, sir!!
MFM008
(19,803 posts)and Berniemath.
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)and a number of other things that literally cannot happen, much like her hitting 2383 Tuesday.
You all may get your day in July. You may not. Tuesday isn't the day.
As you all like to say.. #math
and... you know, the actual delegate process
bravenak
(34,648 posts)She just won the Virgin Islands. She will keep winning
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)You have built quite a case there.
Bottom line is nom or no nom, if she loses CA it flies in the face of everything you have said Sanders cannot do and will defy every demographic hurdle you have cast against him to this point. And it will severely damage the notion of her being the strongest GE candidate.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Obama lost CA to Hillary last time and we both know his coalition was the most diverse ever. She will match his strength.
Gothmog
(144,936 posts)You are ignoring history and want special rules just for Sanders. In every primary contest since the creation of super delegates, the winner was declared the presumptive nominee based on the inclusion of super delegates. That fact that this is not favorable to Sandes does not matter http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/29/1532358/-What-Does-It-Mean-to-Clinch-the-Nomination-When-Superdelegates-Are-Involved
?1464557557
The answer: history says the first person to get to the magic number is the presumptive nominee, and says it unambiguously, even if the losers often disagree.
Heres how it has gone since the superdelegates were added to the process.....
Summary
Anyway, I started this research 12 hours ago to answer a question for myself, so that as everyone on TV is spinning things this way and that on June 7th I have some context. What, if anything, have I learned?
First, most non-incumbent candidates have needed superdelegates to win, and the history of superdelegates has been that once a Democrat hits the magic number and becomes the nominee, superdelegates are more likely to flow to the nominee than from them.
Also, in the history of the superdelegates, they have always ended up supporting the decision of the pledged delegates, and their most important contribution has been to amplify leads of the pledged delegate winner so that they can be assured success on a first ballot, and avoid the sort of messy convention that harms a general campaign.
The major thing Ive learned is that the press declares, and has always declared, the winner after they hit the magic number, and has done so in far more nebulous circumstances than this. Even in 1984, in which Hart won by a number of other metrics, in which the delegate count was the arbiter, and Mondale announced himself as the nominee, even with 38 percent of the popular vote to Harts 36 percenteven then, Hart may have claimed he still had a cunning plan, but no one begrudged Mondale the fact he was, for all intents and purposes, the nominee.
When you think about it, that simply has to happen. Things need to get done, and they need the nominee to do them. Except for Reagan in 1976, who chose a running mate after Gerald Ford was made the nominee, there arent a whole lot of non-nominee candidates going to the convention with their own vice president picked out. You get to do that because the numbers say youre the nominee.
Meeting this number also allows the nominee to do the work of campaigning before the convention, establishing a message, building capacity on the ground, etc.
The press, for its part, has always understood this, from 1984 onward, and has named the nominee (or the presumptive nominee) the minute the candidate crosses the line with their combination of pledged and supers, and usually said something to the effect that they had clinched the nomination. They did that when Mondale had won far fewer states than Hart. They did that when Dukakis did not have 50 percent of the pledged delegates. They did that when Obama had not won the popular vote (yes, I know, MichiganI hope were still not fighting this?).
This is a well researched article and confirms that the nomination process will be over on Tuesday June 7, 2016 when the results of the New Jersey primary are announced.
You love to post thousands of words
Find me one of those articles where a candidate was under FBI investigation. Was Gore or Kerry! Maybe Obama. How about Dukakis.
Nope. None of them. So nothing you said applies.
Gothmog
(144,936 posts)Sanders will not be the nominee
BootinUp
(47,085 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)Gothmog
(144,936 posts)After Puerto Rico, Clinton may only need a dozen or so super delegates who may announce before the start of voting on Tuesday
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Gothmog
(144,936 posts)It is time for the super delegates to call an end to this primary
ancianita
(35,933 posts)on the demonstrating side with subjective labels like "violent," "unruly," "children," "fantasy needs to end," "over the top" or any of the other stock standby labels authoritarians give minorities.
Remember minority rights.
Remember that authoritarians demand order over law, voice and public assembly.
Remember: it's not "our" Democratic Convention. It's the country's.
I know you want a happy, unified convention. And maybe it will get that way. But first, the progressives and FDR wing will have their day. If it looks messy to you, well, this is what democracy looks like.
Remember: Unity is never uniformity. Don't go there.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Especially if the disturbance is violent or preplanned
ancianita
(35,933 posts)convention.
I've watched every single one, and you're not going to have the orderly one you want.
Just don't be willing to pin any shenanigans on the Berners.
They're not hooligans. Most of them are your age and younger.
Unity is never uniformity.
Demsrule86
(68,469 posts)They lost and will not ruin our convention. If Sanders does not concede and endorse than he and his supporter get noting. At that point it is clear, that unity is not the goal of the Sander campaign but disruption...and that can not be tolerated. This election is too important to cater to Bernie Sanders. As for the FDR comment ...baloney...these folks risk all the gains we have made since FDR. I hope we can all come together but no more blackmail...Bernie and his supporters will not run amok at our convention; it can mot be allowed.
ancianita
(35,933 posts)but try to get the best person in office.
"Tolerated"? "blackmail"? "run amok"? "disruption" "our convention"?
You have no idea how conventions do the sausage making.
Just remember: unity is never uniformity.
Enough with the authoritarian, name calling tone.
This thread is antagonizing, so I'm out.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)protests outside the convention hall IMO. For they have proven to be Sanders' most negative aspect.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Be nice if folks would accept that they lost fair and square.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)across their television screens. Of course, Sanders supporters will claim that the bad actors are Trump operatives. You can already write the script.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)Clinton over the top. And the super-Ds can declare til the cows come home but none of that counts until the convention. Then they will cast there first vote. Until then, let's relax and enjoy the ride as the winding road passes by.
I do understand your side's desire to move forward. But the rules dictate we go through this process.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)I predict we will.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)Demsrule86
(68,469 posts)No matter what you say. and bad behavior at the convention will not be tolerated. They will be tossed out.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)convention. I am not arguing with you. I am just telling you how it works. Once the pledged delegates vote and the super-Ds vote, we will end up with a nominee. Until then, you and I are both entitled to our opinions. But opinions won't change the process.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)And Trump is not the official nominee until his convention either.
But Obama was the presumptive nominee before the 2008 convention. Trump is already the presumptive Republican nominee. And Clinton will be the 2016 presumptive Democratic nominee on Tuesday.
Bleacher Creature
(11,253 posts)I'm starting to think that many of the folks who don't get it haven't paid much attention the previous nomination contests.
Demsrule86
(68,469 posts)Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Trying to make her the winner before she has won is just another invalid step in an entirely invalid process.
If she was such a great candidate, she wouldn't need to cut every corner and overly influence every result. It's what losers do.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Demsrule86
(68,469 posts)then she is the nominee...it is the same every year. No matter how you carry on Bernie will not be the nominee. If he does not concede and goes to the convention and put his name in consideration ...he just looks bad. He needs to concede and endorse afer California on Tuesday...or at the latest after DC.
davidlynch
(644 posts)But just posting the message over and over won't change reality, which is that Bernie isn't conceding, and nothing is final until July 25.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)there is too much at stake
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Then they need to GTFO. The party is not for them.