There are, realistically, 10 contested states in the General Election

[Recursion]

Last edited Mon Jun 6, 2016, 09:17 AM - Edit history (1)

NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, and FL, for a total of 130 electoral votes, of which the Democratic nominee needs 53 to win.

Of those states, Clinton defeated Sanders in NV, IA, OH, PA, VA, NC, and FL (113 EVs), while Sanders defeated Clinton in CO, WI, and NH (23 electoral votes). NV and IA were close (and NV was contested), but even ignoring them, the states she clearly defeated Sanders in are worth a total of 101 electoral votes, or 48 more than the 53 she would need to defeat Trump.

[qdouble]

1. All of electoral college models based on polling and demographics show Hillary beating Donald

Trump in the GE, yet Bernie supporters keep saying that the supers should undemocratically give him the nomination based on polls even all current indicators point to a victory for Clinton.

[Recursion]

4. Well, when that's your one chance you play it

It's not like we've never had a competing campaign carry on to the convention; Brown did in '92 also. Didn't seem to hurt us that much.

[qdouble]

5. Hillary supporters want Bernie to move on because they want to focus on fighting Trump,

not because they think there's any chance in hell that supers will flip. It basically wastes another month and a half on focusing on a person who has no chance of winning vs coming together to try to beat Trump in a landslide.

If beating Trump is Bernie's goal, he'll drop out when it's clear he has no probable path to the nomination.

[Recursion]

6. His motivations are opaque to me

We'll see....

[Hiraeth]

11. desirous of a transparent election process is opaque to you ... ?

[Recursion]

12. Does that include stealing ballot boxes from a jail?

Candidates want to win.

What Sanders is after is in fact opaque to me; I wasn't kidding there. If he wants platform access he's lowering his chances of that every day.

[Hiraeth]

13. link, please

[Recursion]

14. "Link"?

Read the news. I'm not your archivist.

[Hiraeth]

15. alrighty then. you are now persona non grata to me. UnRec and Ignore.

[azurnoir]

21. don't want to admit that choice morsel originated as a Reddit rumor?

because that's where it came from initially

[Blue Meany]

31. That was one of a series of accusations made by DNC

members in response to Bernie's campaign going to the press about fraud involved in prison voting, which involved the dominant prison gang demanding that all prisoners vote for Hillary (under threat of death), while the certification of Bernie's representatives to participate in the prison elections were stalled until the publicity pressured them to do so on the morning of the last day of the early voting (when prisoners vote). Hours before the ballots were opened to count, one of the DNC members tweeted that the prisons had voted for Hillary. All of this made some member of the DNC look a bit crooked, so a number of counter-accusations ensued. And since the 12,000+ prisoners had enough votes to swing the election one way or the other, it was consequential.

In any case, the lawyer for Bernie's campaign took their evidence of fraud both to local authorities and the FBI. There has already been one arrest of an officer for one of the political parties mentioned tangentially in the evidence presented, and there are rumors a number of other arrests to be made imminently. I think, in this case, the truth may actually come out, we'll see how well the ballot box caper hold up in court.

[SmittynMo]

2. July 25

eom

[Recursion]

3. I still have a dream where a contested convention nominates O'Malley

But, at any rate: I completely agree Sanders has every right to take his campaign to the convention as Jerry Brown did in 1992.

[yellowcanine]

7. I think you can take PA, WI and IA off that list.

There is little reason to expect Trump to reverse historical trends in terms of flipping states his way.
I actually think all of those states will probably go against Trump.

[Recursion]

9. Huh. I'd take CO off before any of those.

But, yes: I think in broad strokes you're right.

[obamanut2012]

8. I think IA, WI, OH, PA, NH, VA, and FL are def blue imo

NC has a very good chance to be, too, although it will be close there.

[Recursion]

10. FL and NH are question marks to me

If I were putting money down, though, I'd say Clinton takes NC, at which point it's game over.

[obamanut2012]

17. I live in SOFL

And, I think we can make it blue.

[Garrett78]

19. I can't see Trump winning NV, PA or NH.

I suspect Clinton will win most of those other states, as well, but I'd be especially surprised to see Trump win NV, PA and NH.

IA, VA and NC are states Trump could win.

Florida and Ohio will be key, as usual. The Republican candidate pretty much has to win *both* of those states to have a realistic shot at 270.

[RoccoR5955]

16. You really think that she can win all of those states, or even most of them?

Keep dreaming!
There are plenty of independents who she has to get into her flock in order for her to win. ESPECIALLY in many of those states.
I just don't think it's gonna happen.

[Recursion]

18. She needs three or four of them

Not "all"

[Garrett78]

20. Most independents are party loyalists.

Relatively few are actually swing voters.

[PepperHarlan]

22. It will be intersting to see if HRC can open up some new states in the fall.

I don't think we know how much of a problem Trump is going to be for the Repugs yet.

[ancianita]

23. Thanks for this information, Recursion.

[sadoldgirl]

24. It will depend totally on the question:

Which party is best at cheating?

[RoccoR5955]

25. Exactamundo!

I suspect the RepubliCONs are better at cheating. They have been doing it for a longer time than the Dems.

[tonyt53]

26. And the very reason she will thump Trump. She may even take GA, and possibly IN

IN has a nasty gubernatorial race in November and they are fed up with the GOP gov.

[LonePirate]

28. You should also include AZ as a traditionally red state which may flip blue due to Trump.

[merrily]

27. LOL! This is not worthy of you.

[Recursion]

29. Umm... what part of this bothered you?

That was a weird thing to say.

[Ash_F]

30. I think Michigan and few other midwest states are also a threat

R turnout was way higher out there this year.

[longship]

32. I don't like to admit it, but you may be correct about MI.

I sit here in my terrible right wing district in the midst of the Manistee National Forest, with a GOP state legislature, a GOP state senate, and an utterly clueless GOP governor and wonder how in the Sam Hell we got here.

I just don't think MI is in the bag for the Democrats this year. There are too damned many crazies who listen to the DeVos family, and the Grand Rapids based Calvanists. There is nothing reformed about the Dutch Reformed Church whose world headquarters is in Grand Rapids. They even have a college there called (YUP!) Calvin College.

Too damned many people here associate politics with religion. Michigan will be in play unless places like Detroit (my home town -- Cooley High grad, 1966) and Flint come through.

It is a worry.