2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDeclaring Hillary Clinton's 'Historic Moment' Is A Rush To Judgment
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/raffi/hillary-clinton-campaign_b_10322544.html
The 2016 U.S. presidential nomination race has been one of many surprises, week after week, and probably the first in which the remaining three candidates are often mentioned by their first names. Hillary, Bernie. (and yes, the Donald.)
Tuesday June 7 is the day of the last "Super Tuesday" cluster of state primaries for the Democratic presidential nomination. Hillary Clinton's presumed coronation (at the start of the primaries some months ago) faced a strong populist challenger in Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Against all odds, the relatively unknown Bernie ignited a flame in the hearts of millions of supporters with his 100 per cent people funded grassroots campaign and a record millions in individual donations. Against the most powerful political establishment (including the likes of former president Bill Clinton and many Democrat VIPs in Congress), Bernie has won primaries all across the country and gained 45 per cent of the pledged delegates to date.
As the infographic below shows, here's the math: 2383 pledged delegates are needed to win the nomination. Hillary has won 1769, and Bernie has won 1501. Her lead is 268. June 4 through June 14: 930 pledged delegates are left to be won. NOTE: neither candidate can clinch the nomination before June 14, and that makes for a 'contested convention' -- one where the candidate is to be chosen in Philadelphia at the end of July.
Tarc
(10,476 posts)The superdelegates will not flip to the pledged delegate loser.
The endorsement as the presumptive nominee will take place a little more thna 24h from now.
There is noting you will do about that.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)the exact same circumstances, except he was much more dependent on superdelegates to put him at a majority of overall delegates.
The election will be decided for good tomorrow. The agreement of dead end Sanders supporters is not required for this to happen.
President Obama himself is going to declare Clinton the winner on Wednesday, if not sooner.
So will the entire world outside the Bernie Bubble.
History will just pass you by.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Demsrule86
(68,539 posts)My three girls and I ...along with my dear son and hubs will celebrate the first woman nominated for the presidency...and nothing you say will stop that so...who cares what you think...oh and your math is off.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)she will be the first.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_United_States_presidential_and_vice-presidential_candidates
Gracie Allen was the first woman nominated in 1940 for the 'Surprise Party'.
bvf
(6,604 posts)Nothing you say can change that.
SFnomad
(3,473 posts)become the Presumptive Nominee ... and if BS drags it out that far, Secretary Clinton WILL become the Democratic Nominee for President on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention.
bvf
(6,604 posts)He's keeping his word, probably just to piss you off personally.
randome
(34,845 posts)So why the touching concern for everyone else?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Stop looking for heroes. BE one.[/center][/font][hr]
joshcryer
(62,269 posts)Either you go by the PD only majority, or the SD included majority. Mixing them is dishonest.
Either way Obama didn't even get the PD only majority in 2008, and he still won, with only a 62 PD lead.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)They can't help it.
aikoaiko
(34,165 posts)And that they can bask in that historic moment.
I'll be glad it wasn't a Republican who broke through that boundary.
onenote
(42,680 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)because "she's a girl." Isn't THAT sexist? I mean, that gender is all they are looking at?
onenote
(42,680 posts)had commitments from a majority of the supers after the last primary/caucus was completed. That's a first.
And not treating that person as the presumptive nominee -- also would be a first.
loyalsister
(13,390 posts)Her nationalistic war mongering and arrogance are classic Teddy Roosevelt machismo. There is nothing truly significant or historic about nominating an imperialistic presidential candidate. If she is operating under the old adage of working twice as hard as a man to have credibility, we are in very serious trouble.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Sanders express support for the presumptive nominee when he crossed the delegat count...obviously approving of the super delegates role before the convention...only difference this time....it's a woman
Hokie
(4,286 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Whoever wins the most pledged delegates will be the nominee.
Period.
Sid
ContinentalOp
(5,356 posts)But that's nonsense. A poll is a small sampling of a voters. The superdelegates have individually declared who they're voting for. There's not going to be a surprise. It's not like a bunch of superdelegates we didn't know about are suddenly going to show up! We know how they're going to vote. If we wanted to double-check it would be pretty simple for a news organization to contact all 548 of Clinton's SDs and ask them if they've changed their mind or if they expect to change their mind before the convention.