2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"Hillary Clinton won the Democratic presidential primary by 387 pledged delegates and 3.7 million vo
I think the article is a nice summary.
The Democratic Primary Wasnt Rigged
http://www.thenation.com/article/the-democratic-primary-wasnt-rigged/
But now Clinton and Sanders supporters should unite on making it easier to vote.
By Ari Berman
Yesterday 10:43 am
Hillary Clinton won the Democratic presidential primary by 387 pledged delegates and 3.7 million votes.
Despite this large margin, some of Bernie Sanderss most strident supporters have attributed Clintons lead to foul play, alleging that the Democratic Partys nominating rules cost Sanders the nomination and the Clinton campaign deliberately suppressed pro-Bernie votes. These claims, which have circulated widely online, are false. My colleague Joshua Holland, who supports Sanders, has extensively debunked many of these conspiracy theories, but I want to add more detail now that the primary is over. (Ive been neutral throughout the race and do not endorse candidates.)
First off, the partys rules were not the deciding factor. Sanders has rejected the idea that the nomination was rigged but has repeatedly criticized things like superdelegates and closed primaries, in which Independent and unaffiliated voters cant participate. Heres what he told Face the Nation in late May:
What has upset me, and what I think isI wouldnt use the word rigged, because we knew what the rules werebut what is really dumb is that you have closed primaries, like in New York state, where three million people who are Democrats or Republicans could not participate, where you have situation where over 400 superdelegates came on board Clintons campaign before anybody else was in the race, eight months before the first vote was cast.
Thats not rigged. I think its just a dumb process, which has certainly disadvantaged our campaign.
Clinton did do better than Sanders in closed primaries, winning 17 to his 9, but she also won more open primaries than he did, 13 to 10. Anti-democratic caucuses, where Sanders did very well, hurt Clinton far more than closed primaries hurt Sanders, writes Nate Cohn of The New York Times:
Sanders was generally hurt by closed primaries. By our estimates, he did about 3.5 points worse in such contests. But most states arent closed, so Mr. Sanders wasnt hurt that badly over all. And Mrs. Clinton was hurt more by caucuses, where she did about 10 points worse, according to the same model.
If every contest in the country had been an open primary, Mrs. Clintons delegate lead would have grown. She would have lost ground in some of the contests, gained ground in the states with large numbers of anti-Obama registered Democrats (Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kentucky), and gained lots of ground in Western caucuseswhere Mr. Sanders earned most of his big delegate hauls.
Over all, Mrs. Clinton would have about a 12-point lead in pledged delegates if every state had an open primary, according to our estimates.
Nor did superdelegates decide the nomination for Clinton. They gave her a symbolic early lead and momentum, but Clintons pledged delegate lead over Sanders was three times larger than Obamas margin over Clinton in 2008, under the same rules. Im in favor of abolishing superdelegates or curtailing their influence, but its worth remembering that theyve followed the pledged-delegate winner in every presidential contest since their creation in 1984.
Secondly, the Clinton campaign did not intentionally try to suppress the votes of Sanders supporters. Some Sanders supporters point to Arizona, where there were five-hour lines in Phoenixs Maricopa County during the March 22 primary, as a glaring example of malfeasance. But those lines occurred because Republican clerk Helen Purcell cut the number of polling places from 200 in 2012 to just 60 in 2016a decision made possible by a 5-4 conservative majority on the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act and ruling that states like Arizona no longer had to approve their voting changes with the federal government. .............................
WayBeyondBlue
(86 posts)I'm sure we would have noticed had the convention at which the Democratic Presidential nominee was selected, actually happened. Pretty sure it hasn't. What other predictions are in store, I wonder.
Also, kudos on the propo technique, using "million" instead of percentage, lest you allow anyone to realize that just less than half of folks allowed to vote in the Dem primaries didn't pick Clinton.
grossproffit
(5,591 posts)jcgoldie
(11,627 posts)The Democratic presidential nominee has been selected. Putting your head in the sand does not make you seem smart.
Not doubting numbers, or the reality. Just going by the rules. Nuf said.
riversedge
(70,185 posts)DesertRat
(27,995 posts)Thanks for posting.
Response to riversedge (Original post)
Post removed
LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)there are the deadenders that will never accept that Hillary won in a landslide because in their minds the only way they could possibly lose would be because they were cheated out of victory. Fortunately, reality has prevailed and democracy has won the day.
WayBeyondBlue
(86 posts)So if you think that the folks who didn't vote for Clinton don't matter, how can you possibly expect them to want to work with you? Just gather around your echo chamber and roast a few marshmallows and expect a primary challenge in 2020.
LoverOfLiberty
(1,438 posts)Bush never had a mandate and I never used that word.
WayBeyondBlue
(86 posts)and platform commitee go down. If the current attitudes of Clinton and her loudest supporters (here) hold, you'll see a lot of folks going Green.
Hekate
(90,633 posts)Hekate
(90,633 posts)rock
(13,218 posts)I believe the absolute precise form of the verb should have been "will have won". And we don't want to set off any thin-skinned supporters of the other candidates, now do we?
Maru Kitteh
(28,333 posts)Thin skin has already arrived.
WayBeyondBlue
(86 posts)though I admit to being a tad snarky while making it. No sense of humor, these folks!
rock
(13,218 posts)Don't go together.
Gothmog
(145,086 posts)Clinton won fair and square
athena
(4,187 posts)I used to love The Nation but was put off by their unquestioning embrace of Bernie and their hatred of Hillary. (There were a few individual contributors who were pro-Hillary, but the editorial board was anti-Hillary and pro-Bernie.)
Perhaps they are starting to recognize that they helped create a monster.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Hekate
(90,633 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)truth is on a busted up scooter with one wheel.