Why Trump beat Cruz and Rubio, and why it could mean the GOP is permanently screwed.

[realmirage]

I looked at two studies on the typical Trump voter. One looked at characteristics, the other beliefs.

These are the characteristics of Trump's core base according to one study, in order of correlation:

1. White, no high school diploma
2. Answer ancestry question on census as "American," rather than Irish descent, German, etc., even though "American" is not an option.
3. Areas with large number of mobile homes
4. Upset over decline of "old economy" jobs like agriculture, manufacturing, mining, trade, construction

Voters who answered the following voted overwhelmingly for Trump, vs. Cruz.
They are in order of importance for Trump supporters:

1. People like me don't have any say about what the government does
2. Believe immigrants threaten American customs and values
3. Strongly favor" raising taxes on the richest American households



So what does this mean? Why did Trump crush Cruz and Rubio? It seems to me that there is an underlying rejection of Rubio and Cruz based on their race and background. Both lists reveal a belief that immigrants threaten American culture, values, and American jobs. Cruz was born in Canada, and is Hispanic. Rubio comes from immigrant parents.

One of the strongest characteristics of the Trump voter is feeling "voiceless" (#1 in the second list). This seems to be centered around the idea that "American" culture is being squeezed on all sides by "immigrant culture" and by rich establishment elites. Trump supporters protesting Cruz at one event were shouting against his wife for working for Goldman Sachs. And Both Cruz and Rubio themselves are examples of "foreigners" coming in and taking over previously "white jobs" and the culture. They also represent the establishment which seems to have done nothing for them while old economy jobs disappear along with "white culture." This last part may be why Kasich and the other white establishment candidates failed.

There was one type of poll that, at first, seemed to contradict this conclusion. General election matchups showed Rubio and Cruz doing well against Hillary. Much better than Trump. So why didn't they win the primaries? This question makes extra sense when you look at #3 on the second list - support raising taxes on the rich. Why vote for a proclaimed billionaire if you feel left behind by the rich? The answer seems to lie in the responses higher up the list. They really dislike immigrants and, by implication, non-whites. That will sway their votes more than their anger at the rich. So when a general election matchup gives them no option for a white Republican, they will vote Republican versus Hillary. This means the core base of uneducated whites join in with the moderate Republicans to form a broader coalition. HOWEVER, in the primaries, when there is an option for a white candidate, they go with the white candidate, billionaire or not, especially a perceived outsider. It doesn't appear, according to the list, that they believe they can all get rich like Trump, it seems to be more about identifying with him as a white American, non-establishment who will bring "old economy" jobs back, who identifies with "American" culture rather than a "foreign (non-white)" culture like Hispanics or any other.


So does this mean that Republicans will never get a Hispanic elected President? It would appear that the only way to accomplish this would be to not have any white candidates in the primaries. Remove the option.

The Republicans' master scheme of being racist for decades and then trotting out token Hispanic candidates to win back minority voters just isn't working.

Of course this is just my own analysis at first glance. I didn't spend days analyzing it.


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/13/upshot/the-geography-of-trumpism.html?_r=0
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/who-are-donald-trumps-supporters-really/471714/

[writes3000]

1. I think this is a spot on analysis. I've been shocked to see so many Republicans...

Who honestly thought Cruz, Rubio or Carson for these reasons.

[realmirage]

2. It shows how deep the self delusion is

How can a group be so openly hostile to Hispanics and then think they can get Hispanics to ignore all that and vote for them by just trotting out a Hispanic candidate? And then at the same time blaming Hispanics for all the problems of the white working class and then asking those same whites to vote for one?

I'm amazed they still exist as a party. If they weren't so good at bullshitting they would have already gone extinct. Is it too much to hope that we are witnessing their extinction at last?