2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCalifornia Bernie Supporters, Please Call Your Elections Office Today to Request All Provisional Bal
This is in response to the following post about counting provisional ballots in LA county: https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4pa71m/major_cali_update/
If you are in California, please read it, share it, and then find your California County Elections person (link below) to ask how this is handled in your county. Did NPP voters get Democratic ballots in your county? Or did they get the ones they were supposed to get (Dem Crossover)? Did they count both types? Demand that they count both on the grounds of VOTER INTENT. Here is the link to your elections office: http://www.sos.ca.gov/
/voting-res
/county-elections-offices
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4peoi8/california_bernie_supporters_please_call_your/
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)They may not completely finish until Monday, but, unless the final ballots skew wildly, Sanders' chances of winning will be mathematically eliminated by tomorrow.
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)We'll have the final results early next month. The results cannot mathematically change enough to affect the delegate count to shift who has a majority of pledged delegates.
J_J_
(1,213 posts)These ten counties have the potential to flip given the percentage of votes left to process and the spread between Sanders and Clinton.
Monterey called for HRC 26,267 to BS 22,003 **19,268 Unprocessed Ballots.**
Napa called for HRC 7,452 to BS 4,839 **16,219 Unprocessed Ballots.**
Orange called for HRC 168,216 to BS 151,657 **40,804 Unprocessed Ballots.**
Placer called for HRC 17,299 to BS 12,787 **19,268 Unprocessed Ballots.**
San Bernardino called for HRC 90,855 to BS 69,723 **28,294 Unprocessed Ballots.**
San Diego called for HRC 203,322 to BS 177,687 **65,200 Unprocessed Ballots.**
San Mateo called for HRC 73,685 to BS 48,465 **41,517 Unprocessed Ballots.**
Sonoma called for HRC 44,923 to BS 42,715 **43,324 Unprocessed Ballots.**
Stanislaus called for HRC 22,740 to BS 19,159 **11,350 Unprocessed Ballots.**
Ventura called for HRC 57,398 to BS 51,229 **19,474 Unprocessed Ballots.**
All data from http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf and http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/county/all/
There maybe timing issues with the data but it's the best I could do given what I can know from what's on the California Secretary of State website given the formatting and timestamping differences.
Go observe and spread the word.
Democracy y'all!
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/4peh16/ten_california_counties_with_flip_potential_all/
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)and even if he gets every single remaining vote, Clinton already has almost thee times what she needed to win the pledged delegate count.
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)Now please follow the rules and don't try to re-fight the primary.
onenote
(42,698 posts)The unprocessed ballots almost certainly include a significant number of ballots that were cast in the repub primary, one of the third party primaries, or were meant to be cast as NPP ballots. Up until now, the percentage of ballots processed in the Democratic presidential primary has been around 60 percent of the total number of ballots processed. That means the number of unprocessed ballots from which Sanders would have to make up the difference is likely significantly smaller than the number shown. While some of the counties seem close, some are clearly out of reach. Take San Mateo. Even if you assume that 75% percent of the unprocessed ballots are Democratic presidential primary ballots, Sanders would have to get over 90 percent of them to catch Clinton. That's not going to happen. And there are other counties on your list that are equally or even more implausible in terms of the results "flipping."
Just saying so you won't be too surprised or disappointed when the final numbers come in.
randome
(34,845 posts)But the ballots are already being counted and they will continue to be counted. It's California law. There have been disputes about a small portion of them but these are being resolved. That's part of the process, too.
This really isn't anything to take a stand on since no one is really arguing with you or ignoring votes.
still_one
(92,138 posts)provisional ones, regardless of the margin
For anyone who cares to see what the current vote is all they have to do is go to the SOS site to see the most current numbers:
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/
California counts all its ballots, including provisional ones:
Q: Are vote-by-mail and provisional ballots always counted even in "landslide" elections?
A: Yes, every valid ballot returned to county elections officials by 8:00 p.m. on election day is counted in every election, regardless of the ballot type or the margin in any particular contest.
http://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2014-news-releases-and-advisories/db14-090/
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voting-resources/provisional-voting/
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-status/
The provisional ballots would be counted regardless if a candidate concedes or not. I don't know how other states do it, but this is how California does it.
Nothing is being hidden from the public. July 9 are when the final results will be completed:
http://www.sos.ca.gov/administration/news-releases-and-advisories/2016-news-releases-and-advisories/vote-count-update/
"Provisional Ballots
In California, provisional ballots serve as a fail-safe method of ensuring all voters who show up to the polls can cast a ballot.
All provisional ballots are carefully checked by county elections officials to confirm that the person who voted provisionally is both registered and that they did not cast a ballot by mail or at another polling location on Election Day."