Nate Silver's State By State Odds Are Fascinating

[Doctor Jack]

First, look at the blue states that Trump supposedly has a shot in:

Pennsylvania=81.3% chance Clinton

Michigan=90.7% chance Clinton

Wisconsin=86% chance Clinton

New Hampshire=74.6% Clinton



Look at the states that Trump is claiming he will flip:

New York=98.7% chance Clinton

California=98.6% chance Clinton

New Jersey=91.6% chance Clinton

Maryland=99.8% chance Clinton


Traditional swing states:

Ohio=70.8% chance Clinton

Florida=73.7% chance Clinton

Virginia=78.6% chance Clinton

North Carolina=60.5% chance Clinton

Missouri=52% chance Trump


"Solid" red states:

Arizona=55% chance Clinton

Georgia=56.8% chance Trump

South Carolina=60% chance Trump

Kansas=67% chance Trump

South Dakota=69.8% chance Trump

North Dakota=71.2% chance Trump

Texas=71.4% chance Trump

Utah=75% chance Trump

Alaska=71.2% chance Trump

Mississippi=67.5% chance Trump

Indiana=70% chance Trump


If the Democrat has higher odds of winning Florida (73.7%) than the republican has of winning Kansas, South Dakota, North Dakota, Texas, Alaska, Mississippi, and Indiana, I am going to say the GOP is in serious trouble.

[Tal Vez]

1. Well, Trump is in serious trouble, but it will be important that the Democrats stay unified.

[Doctor Jack]

2. I see no evidence that the dems are fraying

I think even the most aggressive anti-Clinton dems are going to hold their noses and vote for her, since the republicans nominated a Mussolini with early stage dementia.

[Tal Vez]

3. I agree. I hope that we're right.

[treestar]

7. I like that sig line

whose quote is it?

[Doctor Jack]

9. Stephen Hawking

[treestar]

11. Thanks!

Really applies these days.

[Doctor Jack]

14. I first heard it at work right when Trump became the presumptive nominee

His supporters seem to be totally blinded by his "illusion of knowledge". Want to defeat ISIS, just "bomb the crap" out of them. You want a better health care bill? Just "negotiate" a better one. So wise, so deep

[Stallion]

17. These People Applaud War Crimes-Cutting Heads Off, Boiling Muslims in Oil, Kiling Families/Children

glad to see McCain push back on that talk today-which sadly will probably hurt him in Arizona

[Bernardo de La Paz]

25. Yup RW Authoritarian Followers crave simple solutions, wallow in binary thinking. . . . nt

[eppur_se_muova]

23. Well, let's not forget ol' Will Rogers ...

It isn't what we don't know that gives us trouble, it's what we know that ain't so.
-- Will Rogers

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/w/willrogers385286.html

[eppur_se_muova]

22. I have to object to the term ...

"early stage". It's gone much further than that.

[bigwillq]

4. Do you have a link?

Would like to see what he says about my state. Thanks.

[Doctor Jack]

5. Click on a state and your wish will be fulfilled

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[bigwillq]

6. Thanks.

89.2 percent Clinton

[Doctor Jack]

12. Sounds like you live in a nicer state than I do

71.4% chance for Trump here. Then again, I do live in Texas and those are god awful odds for the republican candidate here.

[bigwillq]

13. Nicer, yea.

In CT. Beautiful state, just so darn expensive.

[Doctor Jack]

15. I bet

All of Texas is propped up by the feds spending money on military bases, so everything is dirt cheap here. Of course the people of Texas will claim they are self sufficient and don't need the rest of the U.S.

My money goes far here but I am surrounded by idiots.

[Night Watchman]

16. No: 80.3% Clinton

That's what I got when I clicked the link.

Still damn good!

[tallahasseedem]

8. No way that yam is winning NJ

We hate that guy.

[Doctor Jack]

10. Poll out today had him down by 31 points there .

New Jersey is the republican's white whale. Every cycle they chase after it and they are crushed there every time.

[Logical]

18. Thanks for posting this! nt

[uponit7771]

19. FIGHT FOR DOWN BALLOT!! We need to choke the horrid culture that has infested the GOP

[jcgoldie]

20. If MO, GA, & AZ are the closest races...

...will be a good year for us.

[Doctor Jack]

21. If it stays that way for a few weeks, watch trumps overall odds...

....fall well below 18%. He will be up shit creek with a turd for a paddle, as the kids probably say

[Bad Thoughts]

24. Wow! Kansas has still no had enough of GOP crap

They want someone more insane than Brownback.

[sufrommich]

26. There was a higher up from Romney's campaign on MSNBC

last night who said the thinking is that Hillary will probably flip Georgia. I found that amazing that the GOP are admitting to this.

[exboyfil]

28. Why?

Trump is not yet the nominee. If I was Romney's people I would be beating the drum of the media conspiring with Trump to get the nomination so that Clinton had an easy path to the White House.

Change the rules and keep him off the ballot. I don't know if enough delegates are personally loyal to him to win on the first nomination. State binding legislation for the delegate vote is probably unconstitutional anyway.

Romney as the white knight.

[Sheepshank]

27. Solid RED Utah has Drumpf ahead by only 6.4%

the percentage of Trump winning is still in the 70'S...but wow...never seen this tight of a Presidential race here.