Why does Clinton always do worse in the polls-plus 538 forecast...

[LAS14]

... than in polls only or "now?"

[lamp_shade]

1. This should help explain...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

[jcgoldie]

2. I believe its because

Economic indicators which make up the "plus", forecast a tight race due modest recovery numbers over the past couple of years.

[geek tragedy]

3. short answer: because she's ahead

Long answer: the polls-plus model takes into account fundamentals (economy etc) that generally point to a 50/50 race so it will tend to show the race closer than it is, provided one candidate has a significant lead.

The model discounts the fundamentals as we get closer to election day, so it will converge with the polls only and has been in the process of doing so

[LAS14]

4. Thanks all!

[Godhumor]

5. Also, 538 has stopped directing traffic to polls-plus after it performed worse than polls-only

From the primaries.

Nate said all along it was an experimental model that would be reviewed after the season. After it was outperformed during the primaries, he's quietly pulled back on putting It in the forefront until he gets a chance to play with its assumptive mechanics.