***new Nevada poll show tied race***

[triron]

http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/election-2016/rj-s-nevada-poll-shows-clinton-and-trump-are-statistical-tie

Internals show only 15% Hispanics polled (demographics indicate closer to 25% Hispanic)
Whites are over represented in poll it appears.

[Charles Bukowski]

1. I prefer to look at it like this:

HRC +1 in a poll that vastly underrepresents Latinos.

[triron]

3. Agree

with that. Caveats can be seen by viewing URL and examining actual demographics.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. "statistical tie" is a phrase we should ban

It means nothing.

1% is still a lead. It's just a lead with a 40-45% change of being a bad representation of the sample.

Put simply this poll indicates a likelihood of at least ~55% chance of Clinton lead.

[Princess Turandot]

4. The Review Journal is owned by billionaire Sheldon Adelson, who is now a major Trump supporter...

since he is willing to support the candidate of the anti-Semitic US alt-Right, I wouldn't put anything past him.

[triron]

6. Wonder

how Nate will treat it.

[MyNameIsKhan]

7. David Plouffe also indicated NV will be very close but HRC winning from 1.5-6 points

That is based on internal campaign models

[bluestateguy]

5. 19% Latino in 2012

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NV/president/

[triron]

8. Recent Suffolk poll

had HRC +6. Probably closer to that one in actuality.

[Wellstone ruled]

9. Whoa,Aledson's Review Journal and

his Newspaper Network through out the State(Battle Born )is carrying this Bogus Poll. Remember,Adelson bought the RJ just to shove his ideas up Harry Reid's Butt. No more no less. Now let's understand the Population of Nevada. Rural is almost pure White with a couple of small areas of Native Americans. Tow Counties carry the population base. Clark being the largest which is darn close to 60% non Whites and Washoe is about fifty per cent non white.

Believe Clark County surpassed the fifty plus Latino threshold sometime early last year. And the most powerful single block of Democratic Voters are the members of the Culinary Union. And they are not to be messed with period.

Hillary has got this,and it is all about getting a Democrat elected to the Senate. With a very low Educational level of the Populace,we are seeing some really bogus ads,and that is the target of Adelson and Wynn with their ad dollars. These are the same folks who brought you the Tea Party.

[Cicada]

10. I have seen other polls with few hispanic likely voters

Or few young voters. I think the questions such as "How certain are you that you will vote?" Or "How enthusiastic are you about voting?" cause some polls to eliminate a lot of young and hispanic voters. But is it reasonable to expect far fewer young or hispanic voters than in 2012? We need one of the Nates to answer this question.