Election Prediction: Republican Voters Stay Home in Droves

[MineralMan]

That's what I'm expecting, actually. The more Donald Trump appears, the more unelectable he becomes. This creates a dilemma in the minds of many Republican voters, especially those who are on a more moderate location on the political spectrum. What to do? For many, voting for a Democrat is distasteful, but voting for Trump is becoming more and more unthinkable.

So, they stay home. They sit on their hands. They simply can't face the top of the ballot and the choice to be made there.

How many stay home? That I can't predict. I think it's likely to be 10% or even more. That would be more than enough, really, to ensure a Democratic Senate and a pickup of a number of House seats where races are closer than usual. If more ugly crap comes out about Trump or out of his own mouth, those numbers could go up.

And that's not even counting all of the Republican women who will quietly vote for Hillary in the privacy of the voting booth. I know some of those. They're nodding weakly as the men in their lives excoriate Clinton, but they'll act on their own at the polling place. My 92 year old mother is one of them. My wife's 88 year old mother has already voted for Hillary, by absentee ballot.

That's my opinion on this Sunday morning. Thanks for taking the time to read it.

[MADem]

1. Please please please please please please PLEASE!!!

One more time: Please please please please please please PLEASE!!!

[MineralMan]

4. I don't know about you, but I do know some Republicans.

They're all more moderate types, and not one of them is talking favorably about Trump. In fact, none of them are really even talking about the election. Like most of us, they're simply not excited about the prospect of a disturbed person in the White House.

Unlike in other election years, I'm not hearing from them about politics. That's part of my reason for suspecting that many will just stay home and let what happens happen.

[MoonchildCA]

46. I have conservative relatives, who are quite vocal about their dislike of Trump.

One or two are rabid fans, but the majority are pretty freaked out by him.

[MineralMan]

48. There you go. Always agree with them when they bring that up.

Reinforce their opinion, but don't preach Clinton to them. They won't vote for her. I want them just not to vote for Trump.

[AgadorSparticus]

50. The republicans and moderates I know are pretty quiet too.

Some are even looking at Johnson. I how you are right l. I hope they just stay home.

[MineralMan]

53. They're welcome to vote for Johnson.

No problem.

[Bradical79]

52. Was talking to a conservative co-worker this week

Really surprised me he said he's just not going to vote for either candidate. He had actually called Obama a communist muslim before, but his disgust of Trump actually superceeded all the racism and fear mongering. Probably the first time he hasn't given a vote to the Republican candidate in 50 years. So one less vote for Trump in Ohio.

[MineralMan]

54. Excellent!

Helping people decide not to vote for Trump is the goal.

[getagrip_already]

57. I know, and have met many republicans....

And I personally think they would be fine with david duke at the top of the ticket. They will simply vote for the republican because.

Will some stay home? Maybe. More likely that number will be small.

And, it will be made up for by people who really, really, want to vote.

My humble prediction is the red turnout will neither be higher nor lower than the typical cycle.

We have to win this with volume, not suppression.

[MADem]

67. I am in the deep south right this minute, and just last week found myself in the company

of a group of colleagues, most of whom are to the right of Attila the Hun. These were fellers who were pleased as punch during the Bush years. They know I am blue to the bone and don't really care to talk politics with them, but every so often one of them would attempt to engage me, just for their own savage amusement. I noted with no small degree of glee that not ONE of them tried to pull that shit this time around--it was like sitting in an old school wardroom, where religion and politics are NEVER discussed~!

I felt like I was ensconced in the catbird seat, frankly...

[Laf.La.Dem.]

2. I hope you are 100% right!!!!

[JoePhilly]

3. +1

[MineralMan]

5. One of the things I'm doing when I talk to Republicans

is not subjecting them to my strong support for Hillary. They seem ill at ease talking about this election, and when the subject comes up they mostly change it as soon as they can. It's very interesting, and uncharacteristic of them compared to previous elections.

They may not be able to vote for Hillary, but they seem to be unwilling to support Trump. It's a real dilemma for them. So, I leave it at that. It's easy not to vote. I hope they take the easy road, frankly.

[JoePhilly]

6. Same here.

I know a few moderate Republicans and I think they are exactly where you describe.

Dislike Hillary. Absolutely terrified of Trump.

And the moderate republican women are going to cross over.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

29. Wise. When they stay home they do not vote down-ticket. . . . . nt

[Jade Fox]

7. My dream is that Trump will finally do something....

that alienates his minions, and that they will stay home in droves too.

The GOP deserves to be destroyed by this nightmare election they have inflicted (passively or actively) on our country.

[MineralMan]

9. There is a minority in this country that wants

a major upheaval, politically. Rabid Trump supporters are part of that minority. They will not stop supporting him.

On the other hand, we may see a mass exodus from his campaign by some who are part of it. As his campaign yacht lists more and more to the port side, the rats will start abandoning ship. It's already beginning, with his Florida campaign leader pulling out. Kellyanne Conway may be next to bail. Before she was for Trump, she bashed him frequently. She's been getting hammered by many TV news folks, and may have had enough soon.

Trump, himself, may fire some of his campaign leadership. He's done so in the past, and his volatile temperament is likely to come out even more as the campaign falters.

Anyhow, there will always be a minority that supports this damaged, ugly man. Let them. We can't change their minds. We can only work to get our own voters out to make the difference.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

35. The major upheaval needed is the crushing of GOP up and down the ticket.

That is the only way there will be meaningful reform of the Grumpy Old Palefaces. They will have to split between the rational conservatives and the deplorables / rabid christian dominionists.

With proper reform, the USA can get back a collegial House and Senate where elected members really discuss and compromise. Where the Republicans can go back to being a loyal opposition and quit pissing in the well.

The deplorables are a lost cause. They can form a rump party or a tRump Party with all the RW Authoritarian Followers & supremacists in there.

The GOP and Republicans and especially Donald J tRump need to be so completely discouraged that no other RW Authoritarian will even think of running for an adult lifetime (50-60 years). No Trump 2.0, no Ivanka, no Donald Jr, no Nehemiah Scudder.

[yankeepants]

25. I share your vision

If I can't see W and Cheney do the perp walk this will do.

[vlyons]

8. I disagree

Some republicans will leave the POTUS part of the ballot blank or vote for a 3rd party candidate. They still want to vote on the rest of the ballot.

[MineralMan]

10. Some will do that, of course.

But, as happens in mid-term elections, many will simply not show up if the only thing there is for them to vote for is down-ticket races. As I said, it's easy not to vote. That takes no effort at all.

[2naSalit]

11. At this point

If I were a republican, I'd be ashamed to admit it.

[MineralMan]

13. Yes. That's what I'm seeing from my moderate Republican

acquaintances. They simply are not talking politics this year, as they have in the past. Even some of my hard-right Facebook friends are uncannily silent, which is not at all like them.

It's not a good year to be a Republican. The easiest thing in the world to do is to skip going to the polls. That takes no effort and no commitment. You just don't bother.

Imagine Republican turnout being down 10% from 2012. That would make an enormous difference.

[2naSalit]

16. Indeed

a prospect I can get behind!

[ffr]

19. That would be true for the past 16 years in my book and I tell them that to their faces.

They've been the party of embarrassment for at least 28 years, if my counting is correct. Just do nothings that don't know how to govern.

Great at winning elections with bait-n-switch and great at proving that government can't work if they work hard enough at it, but just terrible at governing and keeping us safe.

[upaloopa]

12. My guess is that they leave the presidential

choice blank.

[MineralMan]

14. Some will surely do that.

But, look at mid-term turnouts. They're low, because people don't consider down-ticket races to be as important. For many, skipping voting is an easy solution.

[Missn-Hitch]

15. There is always, "VOTE THE PLATFORM".

It's on a church sign.

[MineralMan]

18. Yeah, OK. But consider this:

It's Election Day and your life is busy. You're not excited about your party's presidential candidate. In fact, you don't like the asshole at all. What do you do?

You skip voting. That's what many people do in such situations. I'm counting on it.

[Missn-Hitch]

26. I hear ya and I am hopeful.

You can bet the theocratic fascists will turn out. The gays and dead babies. They want the court(s).

I want a Nixon/McGovern landslide.

[IrishEyes]

60. Yes or a Reagan/Mondale landslide.

No offense to McGovern and Mondale. My parents voted for both of them. I think that there will be a lot of people who will secretly vote for Clinton when they get to the voting booth. Many of those people will be women.

[ffr]

17. I wouldn't bank on it. I'm assuming they're going to vote like they always do

And we'll have to out-man them in order to win the old fashioned way. This is HFA's thinking too. We need every vote in every state, because it'll be that one or two per precinct that will make or break this election.

[MineralMan]

20. Of course. We still need to GOTV like crazy.

It's just that the effect of that will be magnified if Republican turnout is down. We win on both counts, really.

GOTV for Hillary!

[jaxind]

21. Oh God...

Oh God...how I want to see him lose, and how much I want to see him lose by a landslide!!

[MineralMan]

23. To make it so, GOTV!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

22. Limbaugh will vote for Hillary....

He sees this as his big comeback.

[MineralMan]

24. I thought Rush died a couple of years ago...

He might as well have.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

27. No kidding.

[MADem]

68. Just his tawdry little career died. The fleshbag soldiers on, honking and bleating like a

hybrid monstrosity from a mad scientist's lair~!

[Demsrule86]

28. I think you are correct.

Some of my family members are GOP...working on it...but some will vote for Hillary. They live in Georgia. The rest will stay home...only two of my dozen or so GOP types will vote Trump.

[MineralMan]

34. That's excellent anecdotal news.

Staying home is a good option for Republican voters. I encourage it by telling them "I understand." I don't try to convert them. If they just don't show up at the polls, that's perfectly fine with me.

[Hamlette]

30. My thinking Republican friend says she does not know what she will do but she won't vote Trump.

I only know republicans from work and I don't dare ask them who they are voting for. One hinted he was voting Trump or liked Trump and I can hardly look at him now, let alone talk to him. But one woman left work and calls every now and then. Of course I'm not sure what she'll do but she said no way, no how. When I said, "vote for Hillary" she said "I've not decided who, I'm just decided who not".

[MineralMan]

31. Not voting for Trump is enough.

If your Republican friend doesn't vote for him, it doubles the impact of your own vote for Hillary. I'm fine with Republicans who don't vote for Trump. That's all they have to do. If someone told me that, I'd just say, "I understand." Nothing more.

[Hamlette]

66. and she lives in a tottally red state so it won't matter much

but I agree, every vote for him feeds his sick ego

[Zoonart]

32. Lots of Republicans in my family in NJ

Some do try to talk Trump up to me. I have the perfect retort that stops them in their tracks.

I simply, calmly, look them in the eye and say - "You're too smart to think that way."

They DO think they are smart and I have affirmed that. It makes them question their bullshit without insulting them or playing into their bottomless victim-hood nonsense.

Try it. Works every time.

[MineralMan]

36. That's a pretty good response, I think.

I'll keep it on tap for my own use.

[DFW]

33. I'd love that, but am skeptical

Republicans tend to be fanatic voters, and no one has put any serious voter disenfranchisement for them--just for us. I can see a fair amount of ticket-splitting among some of them--enough to make our hopes of recapturing the Senate a tough battle. Others will just leave the top spot blank and fill in the rest, and if/when they do, you KNOW it will be straight R whether they actually know whom they are voting for or not.

I'd estimate that at this point, her lead over Trump gives her a SLIGHT edge, not a 2008-style landslide. It will be our own GOTV that makes or breaks this. At this point, I'd say it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Hillary does not become our next president. Unlike some, I do not believe that her impressive resumé automatically translates into a smooth presidency. She'll need a few breaks from factors beyond her control, and she'll have to listen to some VERY rational people with no ulterior agenda when picking her staff and cabinet, or that will come crashing down on her as well (think: Emmanuel-Obama). That'll mean disappointing a few friends, and she's not known for doing that lightly.

In any case, I think we're being cautiously optimistic if we count on Republican voters staying home in droves, and downright stupid if we don't act like we think it won't happen. The only justified sigh of relief we should be permitting ourselves is on November 9th with the news we'll have 53 Democratic Senators (including King and Sanders) come next January. Until then, we need to huff and puff or they WILL blow our house down.

[MineralMan]

38. SOME Republican voters are fanatical voters.

Not all. I guessed about 10% would skip voting because of Trump. I'm hoping that's too small an estimate, but I'm seeing at least that many in people I know.

We still need to GOTV. A big win is better than a small one, every time.

[DFW]

40. I think I'd give my eye teeth for 10% of Republican voters to stay home.

Even 2% of them sitting the election out could drastically alter results in our favor.

[MineralMan]

42. I am guessing 10%, but it may well be higher than that.

And there will be a good number of moderate Republican women who will go one step farther and vote for Hillary.

Perhaps more than anyone can imagine. They may be this years "silent generation" at the polling place.

We'll know on November 9, for sure. Until then, I'll just keep on doing what I can to get Democrats to the polls.

[DFW]

43. That's all we can do. Don't let up, either!

Better a lopsided victory than coulda woulda shoulda, right?

[MineralMan]

45. Yup. But, we can do that.

I have this spark in my mind of a landslide victory. I'm going to keep blowing gently on that spark and see if I can get it to turn into a raging blaze.

[DFW]

47. In MInnesota, you have a chance

Back home in Texas, we don't. Here as DA, there is no question, but we don't have any representation (yet! I was on the phone to Russ Feingold, and he is sympathetic to our situation, so MAYBE, finally...).

[MineralMan]

49. You could be right. I don't know.

Personally, I'd have a very hard time living in a red state.

[DFW]

56. It's different if you have lived there.

Besides, my wife told me she wouldn't live in the States, but that I was welcome to join her here in the Rheinland, which I eventually did.

Texas is special anyway. There are large, significant blue pockets there. Wendy Davis wasn't a genetic aberration. Nor are/were Molly Ivins, Barbara Jordan, Mark Kirk, Bill White, Ann Richards, her daughter Cecile (a friend), and any number of wealthy, liberal dedicated Democratic fundraisers in the Dallas area. It's easy to repeat the horror stories coming out of the hinterlands, because that's a version of Texas everyone wants to maintain. But that tells only part of the story, Over three million of us voted for Barack Obama in the last election. It wasn't enough to carry the State, but how many other states can boast such a number? We had more registered voters vote for Obama than most states have registered voters. Like, say Massachusetts, it's not the color of the State you live in. It's the company you keep.

[MineralMan]

58. I understand. I do.

And I know that millions of Texans voted for Obama. I'm not bashing Texas. I just don't want to live there.

I've lived there twice while in the USAF, but only for short training periods. I have some relatives there I barely know. I've driven through Texas many times. I just prefer living in blue states. Always have. They seem friendlier, somehow. But, that's just me.

I've been to Germany, too, as a tourist. I liked visiting there. The very best time I had was in a small beer place in Aachen. I walked in, ordered a beer and got into a great conversation with the locals there. My German vocabulary is minuscule, but we managed to converse.

[peggysue2]

37. I'm in agreement

And the reason why is this is really about the electorates' moral conscience. No one in their right mind could vote for Trump unless they're arsonists at heart, the whole Burn It Down mentality crowd. Trump is a disgrace and taints the entire Republican party. Rightly so. But for the moderates, the surviving members of the Republican party who can still think (as opposed to those infected by Mad Cow disease), Donald Trump is a gross, vulgar embarrassment.

My neighbors across the street, staunch Republicans, fall into the moderate camp and have been horrified by Trump and his acolytes. They will not vote for the man. Whether they vote for Hillary or stay home, the overall effect will be the same--Hillary wins and we still have a country.

Btw, my 89 year old mother-in-law mailed her absentee ballot yesterday. Another Hillary vote!

[MineralMan]

39. Tell your M-i-L thanks!

[shadowmayor]

41. Hope you're right MM

I have "normal" (well somewhat) republican friends and colleagues. They love to fall back on the - "We need an outsider to shake things up" story line. I always say to them - Not everybody who votes for STFU Donny is an avowed racist. But, there is only one candidate actively supported by the skinheads, klans people, the white power tribe, and the neo-nazis - the donald. Why would you want to be on the same side?

If you went to the park and saw two picnics - one with hippies and people of various skin shades, and frisbees, and maybe some dope smoke; the other with blue-suiters, white power and stormfront dickheads, and people with guns. And if you see some of your friends in both groups, which picnic do you head towards? If you find yourself more comfortable with racists and wall street type assholes than soccer moms and blacks and browns - then maybe you need to check yourself? Or maybe, just maybe - you might want to admit you're just way too comfortable with racists than you let on? Always gets a good conversation going.

A standard answer - ummmm, that's a tough choice. I say to them, for many it's real easy. If you don't like people who hate based on skin color, or if you hate people because of their skin color, the choice is simple. How one can be in the middle is a riddle?

[MineralMan]

44. I do, too. I'm counting on it.

I'm keeping my expectations about reduced turnout low, really. I think it could be higher than the 10% drop-off I mentioned. Much will depend on how awful Trump is over the next few weeks.

Bottom line, though, is that deciding not to bother voting is an easy decision for many people. It takes an effort to vote, but zero effort not to. I'm counting on that.

[bucolic_frolic]

51. The man who thinks Obama's Birth Certificate is fake

now fears his own tax returns are REAL!

Beyond irony! Pathetic!

[Ms. Yertle]

55. They won't stay home

You are talking about people who believe it is their civic duty to vote in every election. If the only race on the ballot is for dog catcher and he/she is running unopposed, they will be there on election day.

They will come out to vote this November. They will probably leave the top of the ticket blank, but will vote R in every down ticket race. They know that Hillary has this, but will want an R House and Senate to continue the gridlock.

[Gothmog]

59. I hope that you are correct

[progressoid]

61. I think you underestimate their hatred for Hillary.

I'd be surprised if 3 or 4 percent stay home. Others may leave it blank or vote for Gary or McMullin.

Of course we still have a month to go!

[GWC58]

62. My thinking is most will

on Election Day "come home" and vote president. Some will vote Johnson, most Trump. We can't count on them not voting, lest we have egg on out face 9 NOV 16.

[baldguy]

63. And the punditocracy with try to paint it as being bad for Hillary.

Of course.

[tblue37]

64. Repubs vote. Even if they don't vote for Trump, they are reliable votes for downticket

candidates.

If Dems voted as reliably as Repubs do, we would run every state and have majorities in both houses of Congress.

[treestar]

65. I hope you are right

They should be embarrassed. Or at least vote for the downticket only.