Obama won Iowa in 08 and 12.. why is that?

[Peacetrain]

I can tell you.. because I live here.. President Obama won this state both times because people could connect with him.. Its an old white state, but the very thing many on the east coast complained about (The Presidents speech pattern which is a little hesitant) is a huge Midwestern thing.. because every one who was raised here will remember this.. "Think before you speak".. It is ground into you.. and tends to make Iowans, and other Mid-westerners and certain parts of the south.. Mountain people.. a little hesitant in their speech patterns.. they are thinking about what they are about to say.. Its a cultural thing

Trump is one of those who speaks first and tries to clean it up later.. that is why.. contrary to seemingly popular opinion.. I think Hillary is going to take Iowa.

People connect to her more than they do to Trump. There is nothing to connect to Trump.. He is too off the wall.. his whole family is too off the wall.. It sort of pleased people to think about change.. but when they go to the polls.. they will not pull the lever for that odd odd person who gets up at 3 in the morning to tweet his spleen.. he is just too odd a duck

[BSdetect]

1. You may be right

Hope so.

[Peacetrain]

2. I will be the most shocked person in DU if he took Iowa

He is so so odd..

[geek tragedy]

3. Obama and Trump are also men.

Obama is a unique talent whose appeal to otherwise Republican-leaning voters still gets underestimated.

Iowa is a red state that had a thing for Obama. Branstad, Grassley, Ernst, Steve King, etc.

[Peacetrain]

6. I live in Steve King country.. I know, I know

and Patty Judge is not the best to run against Grassley and that is just a fact.. I will vote for her..but she has issues here.. and we do not always get our best Democrats to run.. but the other thing is.. we are prone to re-electing someone once they are in office.. sadly that is true in many places.. so once you get in office in Iowa.. you are pretty safe..

[tonyt53]

9. I live in KY. Can you say McConnell? I agree with your assessment about Judge also.

[emulatorloo]

14. Most times IA goes Democratic in presidential elections. The blue areas outvote the red areas

Exception was 2004 when the State went to Bush.

Ernst is there because Dems don't vote in midterms, but the teabags etc do.

Brandstad and Grassley are there because they used to be moderate Republicans and enough people mistakenly believe they still are.

King is there because he is from a batshit crazy area.

As to presidential 2016:


IMHO too many BoB's in the Blue areas this year wanting to "protest" vote. I am hoping enough of the Stein and Johnson voters change their mind in the voting booth. Could happen!

[jcgoldie]

4. Definately trending in her favor

Percentages are getting close for IA on 538 finally and its looking mighty light pink. I'm not really sure what polling that's based on.

[Peacetrain]

7. That is what we are talking about locally

I would be shocked if she did not win..

[exboyfil]

5. I don't understand the polls

but I do observe many yard signs with the state races, some Blum, and some Grassley; but not very many Trump/Pence (or Clinton/Kaine).

If you ask someone it always seems to be Clinton is the devil incarnate.

[Peacetrain]

8. If you are in the reddest part of the state.. which I am

and especially in Dutch country.. You get up around Orange City.. and it is so so Republican.. but that is not the whole state by a long shot..

The talk radio people over the decades have been very effective.. there is no denying that..but Trump for many seems a ship too far..too odd...

[jcgoldie]

10. yard signs

I know they are never a reliable indicator. I have one up, but here in rural southern Illinois, I know quite a few Clinton supporters who won't put one up because they are scared of redneck deplorables vandalizing their property.

[emulatorloo]

15. Yard signs are meaningless. Peggy Noonan thought Romney would win because she saw lots of Romney

Yard signs

[Yavin4]

11. I'm a NYer, but my speech pattern emulates Obama's mid-western pattern

I monitor what I am trying to say before I say it or I stay silent and digest what's being said. This is seen as a weakness by my boss, but I think that it's a strength.

I need a new boss.

[Peacetrain]

12. I agree.. it is a strength..

Yep if you have a boss who cannot appreciate a thoughtful response.. well that would be tough for sure!

[BlueMTexpat]

13. I very much hope that you are

right.

[Peacetrain]

16. She is behind 5 here.. but there is something in the air

I live in the reddest part of the state.. She is not going to take NW Ia.. but even among these right wingers is a real discomfort with Trump.. they do not like him or trust him.. so I think we go blue again.. Our state really is purple.. you get out in eastern Iowa.. Iowa City etc.. its as blue as it gets anywhere.. and out here on the SD borders its as red as it gets.. and there is real discomfort with Trump..