If my calculations are correct, New Hampshire is the most important state.

[DanTex]

New Hampshire, WTF, you ask? Good question. Here it is.

I'm assuming that Hillary wins all the solid blue states, plus PA, MI, WI, CO, VA, and ME (but not ME 2nd district).

This is what my map looks like.


Except that 270towin doesn't split out Maine's 2nd district, so I have Hillary at 268, not 269, but that makes no difference.

The point is that, to get over 270, she needs one of the gray states in that map. Just one. And the easiest one, IMO, is New Hampshire.

So, IMO, the moment they call New Hampshire for Hillary on Nov 8 is when the champagne gets popped. The rest is icing.

[VMA131Marine]

1. Personally, I would wait until PA is called

It's virtually impossible for Trump to win without PA.

[DanTex]

2. Agreed. PA and NH seal the deal. But I don't see Trump winning PA. (knocks on wood...)

[geek tragedy]

7. Trump can win without Pennsylvania if he wins NH+NV+OH+IA

[jpljr77]

3. I agree with the importance you place on New Hampshire for timing

Indeed, when N.H. is called, that's when the election is over. But I don't think it will make much of a difference in the final tally, as I expect something like this (although Ohio is being stubborn):

[DanTex]

4. Yeah, I agree, there will be cushion on top of NH.

Your map is pretty much (exactly, I think) what David Plouffe predicted a few days ago on MSNBC. Which made me feel good, because David Plouffe knows his numbers and his electoral demographics.

[jpljr77]

6. Not everything is solid, because I have her sweeping the swing states,

and that never happens.

If I had to pick, I'd say Ohio then N.C. then Iowa are most likely to go Trump. Ohio and Iowa because white people; N.C. because Jesus. But even if he wins those, it's still a definitive win for her:

[DanTex]

8. I think Iowa goes to Trump, Ohio close. I'm feeling good about NC, but that would be

the next one to go IMO.

Still, David Plouffe, no slouch, was confidently predicting all of the swing states, i.e. your last map, to Hillary. And he seemed like he was serious, not just talking.

[jpljr77]

9. Yeah, it can happen....and more

So what if she does sweep those states and then gets some surprises? Arizona just popped a poll today with Clinton +2 and Indiana is Trump only +5. Yesterday, Texas was Trump +7; that's awfully low for Texas. If today's stories are true about private polling on both sides being far more skewed Clinton than the public polling, her top-end is really, really high.

[exboyfil]

5. Sure about Colorado

That is the tip state on 538 website. We could still win Pennsylvania and NH, but lose without Colorado.

Of course Trump has to work his way back in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada first.

The polling looks good.