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Election model update 10/7
Model Description:Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
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# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
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Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.65 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 315.01
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 324
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# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
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Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 80.32 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 302.09
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 303.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 291
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 3.33
Analysis: Projected national lead building...both drift probability and instantaneous probability are in the same range. With only a ~month to go, are these numbers finally converging? Whatever the case, Clinton's bad week in September is now completely out of the algorithms system.