Election Model Update 10/11
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Model Description:
Update with drift included 8/6/2016
Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016
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# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
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Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 84.52 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 311.29
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 330
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# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
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Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 88.57 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 316.7
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 319.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 323
Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 5.01