Nate Silver: The Presidential Election is "starting to look like a blowout"

[Doctor Jack]

Nate Silver posted an article tonight about the gender gap that is taking shape in the presidential election. Its quite interesting, where he shows that Trump is +5 with men (romney won men by +7) but women are backing Clinton by +15 (Obama won women by +8). At the end of the article he says:

"That’s the difference between a close election — as you’ll remember, those national polls in late 2012 showed the race neck-and-neck— and one that’s starting to look like a blowout."


Nate Silver is usually quite conservative (as in cautious) and often takes an "anything can happen" approach. But 538, like many in the media seem to be very comfortable with saying that Trump's chances of winning are somewhere between abysmal and non-existent.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/

[C_U_L8R]

1. It ain't over until the orange's crushed

GOTV. It's delicious and refreshing.

[workinclasszero]

3. Crush him Hillary!

[dakdirty]

15. I used to like that soda...

Now, not so much.

[Silent3]

2. I can't figure out what's wrong with so many of my fellow males.

Especially my fellow white males. Throw in my age and this disgusting preference toward Trump in probably even worse.

[ErikJ]

17. More testosterone than brains.

Guns, bombs and yuuuge walls is all they know.

[Midnight Writer]

20. Got a surprise visit today from an old friend I haven't seen in years. He's all in for Trump.

White male, mid sixties, college educated, anti war, old hippy type.

He started his Trump bullshit, I pushed back, and then we both backed off and changed the subject before things got too heated.

Christ! We've been buddies since we were ten years old. We partied together, went to college together, double dated, smoked pot, worked shit jobs, went to music festivals. A totally cool guy. And now this.

I am so bummed over this.

[NastyRiffraff]

23. Old hippy type!

I'm an old hippy type!! The only difference between me and your friend, from your description, is that I'm a woman. I despise Trump! I can't remember when I've been so terrified at the very idea of someone in the White House...yes, that even includes Dubya. What's WRONG with that guy? He's supposed to be a liberal!

[Silent3]

24. I'm terrified by the idea too.

I don't see how anyone regardless of gender or any other demographic difference isn't.

I'm feeling much better now that Trump's close to certainly doomed, but I won't be able to completely relax until November 9th. I've had times when I've woken up in the middle of the night and couldn't fall back to sleep for an hour or two I was worrying so much.

The fact that so many people could fall for Trump, that they'll all still be out there, will remain scary.

[Madam45for2923]

29. I dream almost nightly of the election. My family has some personal problems that use to consume me

but for a year I could care less. All my attention day and night has to do with this election.

[RobinA]

25. I'm An Old Hippie Type

female and Trump scares me way beyond his "lockerroom banter." Frankly, that's the least of my problems with him. Some old dude running around grabbing crotches is disgusting, but not a danger to the Republic. Lots of his other suggestions are far more worrisome to me. I'd be against him if I were a male or a giraffe.

[apcalc]

26. The gun nut , stupid worry me.

Vigilante types without a lick of reason....

[blue cat]

30. Me too

Older woman hippie type.

[sarcasmo]

4. House, Senate and President, time for the hat trick.

[brooklynboy49]

37. You left out the most important of them all

The Supreme Court. Lifetime appointments. Shaping policy for 30 years.

[Qutzupalotl]

5. Time to donate:

http://www.dccc.org/

Flip that House!

[ffr]

22. +1

Can't donate? Volunteer! Can't volunteer? Blog positively about HRC & Dems.

Do everything you can to pursued voters to elect democrats.

Flip that House!

[Madam45for2923]

31. Another suggestion I heard if you can't volunteer is to bring food to the volunteers

Since they are too busy sometimes to eat or eat anything else but pizza. The head of my DEM office is a young guy from California who drinks a soy vitamin drink everyday instead of wasting time making/finding food.

[Snake Plissken]

6. I'm pretty embarrassed to see Trump is leading with men by 5%

Really embarrassed

[Skittles]

7. you underestimate how pervasive is misogyny

[bettyellen]

16. Exemplified by the multitude of men saying she accomplished nothing. And when you talk about her

Work for kids and mothers and other women.... You get this reaction like that is WORSE than doing nothing. It's as if they need to forget they were ever children or had a mom. It's totally bizarre.

[BlueStreak]

33. Sadly this is true. We talk a lot about structural racism, but

we also have structural misogyny in this country. Actually, worldwide structural misogyny may be a greater problem. The biggest religions (the Abrahamic religions) all are based on structural misogyny.

[Grey Lemercier]

21. this ^^^^^^^^^^

[apcalc]

27. Revolting he's leading among any group....

Some men vote their gender....

[lonestarnot]

8. Well I want the pleasure of helping create that blowout.

[Nevernose]

9. I've had 2 Trump voters TODAY tell me hell no

There's no way they're voting Trump. One called him a "buffoon" and the other guy called him things I can't repeat on DU. They're both voting for Johnson and a mixed down-ticket (and whoever I tell them to for judge).

I'm counting that as a win. A blow out wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[Freddie]

34. Trump supporter friend (of sorts)

Just put on FB that he's not voting. When they stay home they're not voting down-ticket either.

[Cha]

10. Don't tease us, Nate!

[C Moon]

11. Anyone else here see that happening, oh, months ago?

I want to see all the states blue, save for a few—much like the 1984 election, but just the opposite colorwise.

[DFW]

12. It is a national scandal and a source of unease in the international community

.....that this kind of prediction is not the ONLY prediction that has been coming out of America since July.

This election SHOULD have "looked like a blowout" the second Trump made his acceptance speech. In any normal civilized country in the West, it would have been. In France, Marine Le Pen only polls at under 30% and in Germany the AfD isn't there either, and compared to Trump, both of those movements, considered far right here in Europe, seem downright Marxist.

[Hekate]

13. If he gets 35% of the vote, that will be in Le Pen range. I think that shows a really ....

.... unfortunate tendency for a certain portion of the population (apparently anywhere) to seek for a strongman who promises them the Moon and promises to beat up on other people for them.

That many can be politically defeated, but only if the rest of society is truly alert to them. Otherwise they can cause terrible damage, and even take over.

It is a scandal that Trump has gotten so far.

[DFW]

18. Fortunately, France has a runoff election between the top two vote-getters

While LePen's dad knocked off Lionel Jopspin, the socialist candidate (who ran a campaign deserving of the loss he suffered), in the first round, in the runoff, Chirac buried LePen.

We don't have a runoff with our de-facto 2 party system, but sometimes a third party can toss some glue into the works in our country. If there had been a runoff after the elections of 1968 or 2000, Presidents Humphrey and Gore would have been the likely result.

[heaven05]

28. who ever said we were civilized

the millions following the trumpenfuhrer proves the opposite. America has had a hidden infection for generations and it has finally erupted all over this country.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

14. A Democrat hasn't won the majority of the white vote in decades.

[Freddie]

35. HRC will will a huge majority

Of white women!

[DesertRat]

19. This is awesome, BUT we can't be complaisant

We need to work hard to GOTV for all Democrats!!

[Scurrilous]

32. K & R