Call me pollyanna, but here is an optimistic view of the period ahead

[BlueStreak]

Let me start with a hypothetical that is consistent with the polling. That is, Clinton wins big -- big enough to be a humiliation for Trump and the teabagger wing of the GOP. Dems have 50 or 51 seats, holding control of the Senate agenda, but far short of the 60-vote cloture limit. Dems gain 10-15 seats in the House and Ryan continues as Speaker.

None of that should be controversial. It is the most likely Nov 8 scenario. I'd like to look beyond the numbers and project what could happen in the next 2 years.

There are three (related) things that have caused gridlock the past 8 years:

1) There was an "illegitimate" black man in the White House.
2) Teabaggers forced Boehner and Ryan to go it alone (no compromise with the Dems), but the teabaggers would not support any reasonable position
3) Obama steadfastly tried to be an adult and find compromises.

If the numbers end up as stated above, we could have a whole new dynamic.

1) We won't have that "illegitimate" black man occupying the WH anymore, not that a woman in the WH is much better, but at least she's not, you know, uh, from Kenya.

2) Ryan will have a small majority. He and Boehner couldn't get anything done with the larger majority they enjoyed the past 6 years. Trump has so fractured the GOP that there simply isn't any prospect of doing anything useful with the teabaggers. The only way Ryan can get anything constructive done is to work with the Dems. Do Ryan and McConnell seriously want to do 8 more years of nothing but obstruction? I doubt it.

3) It remains to be seen if Hillary can and will play some hardball -- harder than Obama was able to do given that he was -- well "illegitimate."

So to sum it up, I predict that the GOP will calculate the obstruction strategy was a complete failure and they cannot do that for another 8 years. I think Hillary (and possibly Bill behind the scenes) will be able to find compromises with the non-bagger Republicans, and the non-baggers will conclude their interests are better served by making some progress.

So there you have it -- conditions for a new era.

Or ... the GOP could really just decide to do the circular firing quad thing the next 8 years. I don't think they are that stupid, but I may be wrong.

And we should recognize the nearly impossible circumstances Obama had to deal with. He may honestly be the only person in this entire country who could have managed through this 8-year GOP cluster**** leaving the nation strong, safe, and mostly stable. History will probably find Obama to be right up there with Washington, Lincoln, and FDR guiding this nation through existential crises.

[EL34x4]

1. Hillary is loathed far more by the right that Obama ever was.

But you know who they'll loath even more than Hillary Clinton? The GOP establishment that they will blame for Trump's loss.

The 2018 mid-term elections will have so many pissed off Trump supporters staying home that democrats will likely win control of Congress (if they didn't in 2016).

[BlueStreak]

2. Well, it depends on who is doing the loathing

There is no doubt that hard core racism was a major factor driving the teabaggers. And I will grant you that the same people who can barely refer to Obama without using the N-word are right there with the reflexive "Lock her up" for Hillary.

But my argument is that these people have just taken a major step down in power. As long as they could sit at the table with Ryan/Boehner, they could demand that Ryan/Boehner follow the obstruction strategy.

But my argument is that two big things will have changed by January 2017:

1) Trump and the teabaggers will have created such a divide between themselves and the establishment GOP that the establishment GOP may find it more expedient to work with the Dems -- at least a lot more than they have for 8 years.

2) The establishment GOP may decide that the total obstruction strategy was a big loser, and they may have to go with at least a "principled tactical cooperation" strategy.

[Rocknrule]

3. Not to say Obama is a pushover

but he learned the hard way that when you extend an olive branch to Republicans, you pull back with a bloody stump

Hillary has a lot more experience with these people, and I think she'll put up with a lot less bullshit than Obama did from GOP obstructionists and the NRA

[BlueStreak]

4. It was painful to watch, but he had no real option

because at any point he was vulnerable to the "Angry black man" charge. I think his leadership is remarkable under the circumstances.

[kurt_cagle]

5. Another factor

In 2008, one of the first things that Obama had to do was staunch the bleeding from the housing collapse. This meant that a huge amount of capital needed to be expended on putting out the fire, and while that was happening, it gave the GOP an opportunity to regroup and aim for the mid-terms. The GOP in 2008 had also been pretty effective at severing their ties with the Bush White House while still retaining most of their base.

2016, the base is shattered. Trump has created a major divide between the Brand GOP loyalists and the hard right, and he, or someone like Breitbart, is going to use this to create the Patriot Party (or something similarly idiotic). This is going to create a de facto three party election in 2018, favoring the Democrats. I'm guessing that in addition to this, the GOP is going to have to start laying the groundwork to retain their electoral advantage in 2020 at the state level (in order to preserve their gerrymandered advantages), so they're going to be strapped for cash for 2018. This means pretty much ceding the mid-terms, and the Dem coffers are pretty much flush this year.

So there will be at least one election cycle past this one where the Dems have enough of a margin to really affect things at the Federal level. 2020 becomes the major test - candidate at the four-year point, a mild recession in the rear view window, so likely much of the divisiveness of 2016 will be past us. Progressives should be pretty content at that point, but Dems need to start laying the ground game at the state level in 2018 as well. Demographics favor them, but the Dems have to take back the governorships and state legislatures by 2020 as well.

[BlueStreak]

6. Interesting scenario

The main point of this thread is to argue that we are at a major inflection point right this minute. I can't be positive which way it will go, but I am about 99.9% certain that the conventional wisdom talking heads are way off in their views.