I hate the Rachel Maddow shtick, but please, talk me down: He won't possibly win, right?

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I mean anything is possible...but no.

He's cooked.

[bettyellen]

2. Nope. It's impossible. Plus we shld get the senate and so USSC judges!

[Glamrock]

3. Seriously? I mean really?

Dude (or dudette as the case may be). The betting houses have her at like 90% probability. She's leading by slim majorities in red states. She's statistically tied in Alaska. Alaska! Talk you down (muttering and shaking head).....

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

6. That's actually my problem right now. Even with 90% probability, it's like an NFL kicker's chance...

... of making a 30-yard field goal. I watched some NFL kicking today and a few of them barely got it thru the uprights at that distance.

(I'm a dude but appreciate the consideration!)

[Glamrock]

13. I'm hip man, I'm hip.

Thing is the majority of women are now excited to vote against this creep. As are Latinos, African Americans, gays, immigrants, cats, dogs, squirrels....except of course white dudes. We don't make up enough of the population to put him in office. Period. Conventional wisdom from the last election was that the candidate had to get, what, 47% of the Latino vote? Trump is at like 16%. It's all over but the shouting.

Feel better brother?

P. S. Yes. We know. People have to vote.

[GWC58]

30. I'm in the

white males without a college degree group voting, proudly, for Hillary!🤗😀

[klook]

31. It's like a 60-yard field goal, with the wind blowing toward him.

Not statistically impossible, but the likelihood is so remote that nobody but deluded zealots and obsessive worrywarts (no offense meant) are still thinking he has a chance.

Then again (here's the nagging worry part) -- to continue the analogy: Sure, there could be a sudden gust of 40-mph wind at the kicker's back just as toe meets pigskin. That would be the equivalent of a game-changing late October surprise in Trump's favor.

But with so much already going Clinton's way -- and with voting already under way -- it's really hard to imagine what would constitute a strong enough wind at Trump's back at this point for him to have a chance. 538.com currently has Hillary with an 87.6% chance of winning, to 12.3 % for Trump. I'll take those odds.

I know what you mean, though. I feel the anxiety, too. We'll be worrying until this damned election season is over, and then we'll worry some more when Trump and his pitchfork-and-torch brigade try to say they was robbed. But there are just too many things going in Hillary's favor at this late stage for Trump to pull off a miracle for the ages.

[madaboutharry]

4. He won't win.

In the next couple of weeks Trump and his campaign will become completely unglued. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with 30% of the vote. He may even meltdown in front of TV cameras.

GOTV. Just in case I'm wrong.

[drm604]

9. That's a good point about GOTV.

The one thing that could conceivably go wrong (other than some unexpected major event) is that Democrats become over confident and don't bother voting or volunteering. We need to act as if it's NOT a sure thing. For the sake of the House and Senate, if nothing else

[OnDoutside]

23. Yes, barring some bombshell Wikileak, Stay-at-home voters is the only way this doesn't end badly for

Trump.

[jberryhill]

27. Yes - barring the release of something FINALLY showing her to be a cynical criminal

I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Zynx]

5. Very slim possibility. It would have to take a massive outside event at this point.

No candidate has ever come back from this sort of deficit.

[Charles Bukowski]

7. Even in his best moments

(Post convention, just prior to the first debate) Trump was a longshot to win.

The demographics were against even without his hateful rhetoric.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

8. I fear election night: NH 2 close to call, NC 2 close, FL 2 close .. OH for Trump, Iowa for Trump ..

[NHDEMFORLIFE]

35. NH 2 is fine

Kuster has it.

[-Steph-]

10. The best thing you can do is get everyone you know out to vote. There's so much at stake.

I don't think he has any shot at all of winning, but the only way to be sure is to get out the vote.

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

12. Love the sentiment but am in a very, very blue region. There's not a red EV within 200 miles.

[Salviati]

18. Your and your neighbors votes are still important though.

This election isn't just about winning, but it's about shutting down the trumpian, neo-republican ideology as unacceptable. We need to win, we need to win big, and we need to knock them on their asses for a generation. We need to GOTV in 2016, 2018, and 2020.

[drm604]

25. People still need to vote.

For the sake of the House and the Senate, even if the Presidency is a sure thing.

[JRLeft]

11. The Presidential election is over, it's all about how much she wins by and

is there long enough coattails to flip the both houses.

[Ligyron]

14. Not even the slightest chance that Trump will win.

But we need to run up the score so there's no possibility of fraud or saying Hills doesn't have a mandate.

GOTV, and the Senate and maybe even the House are ours for the taking.

[Kennah]

15. 86.6% likely that he loses

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[saltpoint]

16. The more "rigged" he claims the

election is, the more likely he knows he is going to lose.

He is not running a campaign, at least not in the way we traditionally think of national political campaigns. He doesn't have very many field offices. He has minimal staff. The staff he has are nitwits and newbies and rage monsters. One wears a bullet necklace.

A serious contender would have hired experienced staff and a consulting team to focus on issues. That has definitely not happened.

I think the Trump-Pence ticket goes down in flames early on the evening of November 8.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

17. It's possible that he wins

His strategy now is to get what supporters he has left as angry as hell while hoping Hillary supporters get lulled into a sense of complacency. He's going to play this rigged-election-conspiracy shtick to the hilt.

Also remember that the media has an interest in keeping the race at least apparently competitive, lest no one will watch their highly profitable cable news shows.

[Tom Rivers]

19. like i dont think so but nothing would really surprise me

dems have huge advantage in ground game in a lot of key swing states but also a lot of low information voters out there that trumps act appeals to.

still given that he is running behind in most of the swing state polls and has been for a while i don't think it seems likely. a lot of republican insiders are even publicly stating that they don't think he has much of a chance and worry that he is making it worse now with his off the rails madness.

bottom line if dems get out there and vote for hillary instead of staying home then trump has no path. i trust our gotv crew will step it up to get hillary elected and send trump back to his golden toilet bowl.

[StevieM]

20. Of course he can win. I doubt that he will, but it would be foolhardy to say that it is impossible.

That's why we have to work really hard to make sure it doesn't happen.

Hopefully Hillary will win by a wide enough margin to carry in a Democratic Congress.

[LeftRant]

21. Which schtick? Zero information here.

[Maeve]

24. "Talk me down" is a old line of Rachel's

She hasn't used ot much lately, but....

[pnwmom]

22. We all need to work as hard as we would if they were neck and neck.

We shouldn't be overly confident.

[jberryhill]

26. It is very unlikely at this point

[drm604]

28. About the only thing that gives me pause is the fact that Russia has hackers working to help Trump.

Hypothetically, suppose that Trump is working with the Russians, and that the Russians are planning to hack, or have already hacked, voting machines in key areas. Part of the plan is to have Trump go on and on about how the election is going to be rigged against him, causing the Democrats, and most of the TV talking heads, to insist over and over that such a thing is not happening and is not even possible.

Then when it is rigged, but against Hillary, it would make it difficult for the Democrats to claim that it is, after weeks of denying that it's even possible.

[MFM008]

29. 21 days left

She's at 86 perecent
He's at 12
Which odds do you want going into a surgery?

[still_one]

32. context?

[Doctor Jack]

33. Possible but highly unlikely

Its possible that Jill Stein wins in a landslide. Its possible that the electors vote for me to be president. Just because something is possible doesnt mean its probable and in the case of trump, its highly improbable that he will win. Even Nate Silver admits has 10ish% that he has trump at right now is likely way too high.

Will Trump win? Anything is possible but to be blunt, no, no he wont.

[kairos12]

34. He has zero chance of winning.

[lovemydog]

36. I'm sorry I can't talk you down.

I can't predict the future.

I just try and live in the present.

Anything is a possibility regarding elections.

That's why I vote to make myself heard & encourage all my friends to vote too.

If you want to do more, perhaps if you're able you could help out your local democratic party?

[Coyotl]

37. Will the GOP even exist after 2016?

Will the GOP even exist after 2016?

The GOP is falling apart before our very eyes—that much is clear. The gaping chasm between the elite/establishment wing of the party and the white working-class voters in the South who have consistently voted Republican (often against their own economic interests) has swallowed whatever middle ground may have once existed between the two factions. Libertarians, in the meantime, don’t know which way to turn. This has Republicans of all stripes conjecturing about what the future holds for conservatives—and here’s one thing they seem to agree on: The GOP as we know it won't exist following this election. ..............