Is Paul Ryan toast? Donald Trump’s campaign should make House speaker worry about his future

[DonViejo]

Abused by a toxic nominee and under attack by movement conservatives, the GOP's golden boy has run out of rope

HEATHER DIGBY PARTON

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It’s not surprising that Trump is melting down even more dramatically than usual. You know how he loves to look at poll numbers and they just aren’t looking very good for him at the moment. But things aren’t looking any better for the GOP in general. It’s foolish to predict anything about this election but if it follows past elections, it’s possible that in addition to losing the presidential race the Republicans will also lose the Senate. They gerrymandered their House majority so efficiently that it’s almost impossible for them to lose their majority (speaking of rigged elections) but the way they’re going it’s likely they will lose more seats than they had anticipated.

So one of the big questions is what happens to the House if the GOP hangs on to a slim majority that’s even more conservative than it was in 2016. After all, those are the safest seats. And it raises the question: Will Paul Ryan remain speaker?

If you ask any member of the beltway establishment, including most of the media, Paul Ryan is the leader of the Republican Party of their dreams. He’s young, he’s telegenic, he’s conservative in that familiar sense that he wants to cut government to the bone but “for our own good.” They look at him as the savior of the political system — the man who can bring everyone together like Ronald Reagan so we’ll all go back to pretending that the normal people are all Republicans.

Unfortunately, that Paul Ryan doesn’t exist. The man who Esquire’s Charlie Pierce describes as the “zombie-eyed granny starver” and the New York Times’ Paul Krugman calls a “con-man” isn’t actually a very good policy wonk, which is what supposedly set him apart from all the yahoos. As Ian Millhiser of Think Progress memorably put it in this masterful dissection of Ryan’s many flaws:

Paul Ryan’s ambition … is matched only by his innumeracy. He builds cathedrals to dyscalculia, and fills them with a worshipful press corps. But his is a false faith, resting upon ideas that do not withstand scrutiny.

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http://www.salon.com/2016/10/17/is-paul-ryan-toast-after-the-trump-debacle-a-smaller-meaner-house-majority-awaits/

[Coyotl]

1. The House Is Back in Play

The House Is Back in Play

This from a week ago: The House is so much more in play this week than last, it is really remarkable. This was the swiftest shift in political fortunes I've witnessed, a concession of the Presidency race for all practical purposes. But a Clinton victory was going to happen anyway. What has really shifted is the overall picture for the Republican party. Now every candidate has to declare their position on Trump. For Republicans, there is no winning that inevitablity.

What a five-point shift could do = 455-83
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512496668

2016 House Race Ratings for October 4, 2016
Cook Report: Summary
Solid Seats: 202 Rep, 177 Dem
Likely/Lean Seats: 25 Rep, 7 Dem
Toss Up or Worse: 20 Rep, 4 Dem

October 6: Poll Update = Clinton 46%, Trump 39% (Morning Consult 9/30-10/2)
2016 National House Race
Asked of 1778 Likely Voters
Democratic candidate 46%
Republican candidate 37%
Don't Know/No Opinion 17%

[Renew Deal]

2. Ryan is probably hoping that some of these "movement conservatives" get run out of town.