Upshot Model, Hillary at 90%

[Johnny2X2X]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=1

This is the site I've been following all along as it's the most comprehensive prediction site out there. It takes into account 8 different reputable statistical models and combines them.

90% is as high as it has been, tying August 26th.

The swing state chooser at the bottom is fun to play with, Hillary simply has to win states she is 85% or better to win and there is no way for her to lose. Trump has to flip states he currently only has a <15% chance to win.

3 Weeks To Go!!! Work harder than ever, donate as much as you can. Depending on how the debate goes Wednesday I will be donating down ticket exclusively after that.

[lonestarnot]

1. Getting closer to two for Dumpster.

[Renew Deal]

2. That thing shows that it could potentially be an early night if things go well

If Hillary wins VA, PA, NH, and WI, Trump has to win every other swing state.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. And we're not even really talking about swing states really

PA, CO, VA, NH, and WI are all at least 89% to Hillary, that hardly makes them swing states, the Upshot site has always listed 10 states in the swing state tool, but they've basically run out of swing states. They list VA as a swing state when going off from their %s say that UT, AK, TX, MS, IN, SC, and MO are more of swing states than VA.

If Hillary were in Trump's situation we'd be talking about her having to sweep several swing states she was already way behind in and then flip a state like IN or TX. Can you imagine how despondent we'd be if we thought Hillary had to flip TX to win?

And this allows Hillary to just defend a couple states to win. And she is a 4 out 5 shot to win FL, without FL Trump is finished. GOTV!!!! The Early voting is already looking great.

[oberliner]

4. Trump can't win without FL

That's for sure.