Which of these Senate seats do we win?

[Funtatlaguy]

Here are my guesses of those that are currently contested (within 5-10 points):
Illinois. Win
Indiana. Win
Wisconsin. Win
Pennsylvania. Win
Colorado. Win
Nevada. Win
New Hampshire Lose
North Carolina Lose
Florida. Lose
Ohio. Lose
Iowa. Lose
Arizona. Lose

Anybody live in one of those states that disagrees with me?

[RandySF]

1. I disagree with NH

And I think we win the NC seat If Hillary carries the state.

[DarthDem]

5. Agreed.

North Carolinians often like having one Senator from each party.

[CincyDem]

2. I hate that you're probably right about Ohio. n/t

[jcgoldie]

3. I think

We will win all of those you predicted with Nevada being the most contested, but I also think we have a better than even chance of winning NH and NC with the way things are trending.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. I agree that

Nev, NH, and NC will all be close.
I'd love to sweep them.
Would also love to be wrong in Florida. How do people vote for a guy who says he hates the job.

[DarthDem]

6. Don't Forget Missouri

Jason Kander is a superb candidate against an awful Repub incumbent and can absolutely win. It will be hard, but it needs to be on everyone's radar.

I disagree with you about NH and NC. Good discussion topic!

[Funtatlaguy]

7. I haven't seen any recent numbers from Missouri.

Have you?

[Coyotl]

10. dKos has a 3% R lead, 13% undecided. Blunt at P=0.666

http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016/office/senate/state/MO

Polling has been rather stable since mid-September, so we are not seeing the Trump crash-and-burn effect there. But, it will have impact on Nov. 8.

[Funtatlaguy]

11. Wow. Didn't know it was that close.

Come on Kander!!!

[Capt. Obvious]

13. Blunt just followed me on Twitter

Which is weird as I live many states away and based on my public tweets am not someone who would support him.

He's nervous.

[Coyotl]

8. Still too early to call all these. Look at the undecided stats.

FL 12%
OH 14%
IA 10.5%
AZ 14%

Three of the four have Rs at 50% in polls though. Florida is the pickup we need to concentrate on with Rubio weakest of the lot at 46%.

NH looks really good now, 46-45 with 9% undecided.

North Carolina also looks good now, 43-42 with 12% undecided.

The big factor in all this is Trump, and he's a total train wreck.

[geek tragedy]

9. my predix:

Win:

Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and North Carolina

Lose: Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona

Ground game and demoralization make the difference in NH, NV, and NC

[DeminPennswoods]

12. PA senate debate tonight

The first debate between Toomey and McGinty is tonight and will be carried on local TV channels. McGinty so far hasn't exactly been inspiring so we'll see what she brings tonight. Toomey is certainly ripe for being knocked off though.

[DarthDem]

16. What??

She's been plenty "inspiring," and she's a very, very good candidate. Let's build up our Dems over the last 22 days, not the reverse.

[DeminPennswoods]

21. have to disagree

She only got a plurality in the Dem primary (42.5%). I believe if either Sestak or Fetterman had dropped out, she'd have lost. She ran for governor and finished dead last in the Dem primary before that. But she's the candidate the Dem establishment wanted. I heard her speak at Hillary's post-DNC rally in Pgh. She was only ok. It was only last week that I saw her first campaign ad where she actually spoke about her credentials for office. The DSCC, SEIU and PrioritiesUSA have done a good job tagging Toomey with his "Club for Growth" based policies, but I think to beat him McGinty has to show her policy bones.

Don't get me wrong, I'm voting for her because regardless she'll be a vast improvement over Toomey. My hope is she'll turn out like Patty Murray and Kristen Gillibrand.

[DeminPennswoods]

23. watching the PA senate candidate debate

McGinty is doing great. She's giving thoughtful, sensible answers and she clobbered Toomey over his participation in the GOP partisan blocking of Obama judicial nominees. Toomey really has nothing and when on split screen looks like he's sucking on a lemon while McGinty is answering.

[DarthDem]

26. Good, Glad to Hear That

I plan to watch later. Hopefully she is inspiring you and others.

[saltpoint]

14. I wish voters in Ohio and Iowa,

for example, would see things our way a lot more, but I think Portman and Grassley survive to return to the Senate.

I could do without either one of them, especially Grassley.

I think we win the New Hampshire Senate race. When I see Kelly Ayotte in news clips, she looks like she's zoning out. It's a bit of the deer-in-the-headlights expression, coupled maybe with someone who found a corpse in her back yard.

[True_Blue]

15. McCain is winning here in AZ.

By a huge margin. Polls have him anywhere from 13-19 points ahead of Kirkpatrick.

McCain and Kirkpatrick were actually tied right before McCain unendorsed Trump. It's crazy. I don't think anyone expected such a huge sudden gain like that . . . not even McCain. I think it helped McCain too when Trump called him out on Twitter.

[DarthDem]

17. They Were Not Recently Tied

Kirkpatrick faded, sadly, long before McClown's unendorsement of Trump. The good maverick was just being cautious.

[helpisontheway]

18. How many do we need to gain control? Nt

[Funtatlaguy]

20. 4 to tie

5 to take control .
If it's a tie, the Vice Prez breaks the tie.

[MyNameIsKhan]

25. More than control this is perfect moment to secure majority in 2018 so we need like 55 senate seats

[CK_John]

27. Need 60 to do anything in the Senate.

[malchickiwick]

19. We HAVE to keep Harry Reid's seat BLUE!! C'mon fellow Nevadans, GOTV!!

Our fantastic POTUS will be here in Nevada next weekend to help -- I hope I have a chance to drive up to Vegas to see him.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/potus-coming-to-vegas-next-weekend-to-help-clinton-cortez-masto


President Obama will be in Las Vegas next weekend to campaign for Hillary Clinton and Catherine Cortez Masto, KTNV has learned.

The president will be in Las Vegas on Oct. 23 to do an early-vote rally for the presidential and Senate contenders. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid also is expected to attend. The location is not yet set, I'm told.

Early voting starts next Saturday in Nevada for two weeks.

Obama also has cut a radio ad for Cortez Masto in the race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

[brooklynite]

22. 538 say 60% probability of winning NH, and a 50/50 shot in NC

Between Clinton, Cooper and Ross, I think we take all three

[MyNameIsKhan]

24. here they are

Illinois. Win
Indiana. Win
Wisconsin. Win
Pennsylvania. Win
Colorado. Win
Nevada. Win
New Hampshire Win
North Carolina Win
Florida. Win
Missouri Win

This will give us senate control for 4 years.