3 Unlikely Ways Donald Trump Could Win - Fortune

[ffr]

I'm going to give my assessment of Donald's path to victory first:

1) Voter apathy, thinking Hillary is a lock, don't recognize how important down-ballot dems are too.
2) Overconfidence, not putting in the effort, money, and consciously skipping just this one election.
3) Dreaming of November 9th and forgetting about all the hard GOTV work yet to do in the coming weeks.

That's how Donald and the GOP wins.

The Brexit Vote showed polls aren’t as accurate as you might think.

A month ago, I highlighted in Fortune the reality that in the last eight U.S. Presidential elections, the candidate who led on October 1st went on to win the election. While polls can certainly be volatile, the main reason little volatility exists from this date onwards is because by this time in the election, there are very few undecided voters. In other words, there is limited opportunity for the trailing candidate to gain ground.
<snip>

1) The polls are just wrong.
2) Another Wikileaks bomb.
3) There’s an October Surprise.
Fortune

[renegade000]

1. Another wikileaks bomb?

If by bomb you mean firecracker.

[ffr]

5. A wet one at that!

[vi5]

2. Am I the only one equally afraid of winning AND losing?

Losing brings about the obvious disasters. But I'm just as afraid of violence or the excessive anger from the right wing and all the conspiracy theories and deligetimizing that will make what Obama faced seem like playtime at a nursery school.

I just feel like we as a country lose either way. There will be no celebration.

[ffr]

4. Think all bark and no bite.

We might see a few isolated one-person protests, but the surest way to silence that is by having an overwhelming victory.

GOTV! Every vote. Every state.

[qwlauren35]

10. Don't be afraid of winning.

The celebration will be different, but there will be one.

To suggest that the level of hate after Obama was elected would be a nursery school is to forget the Tea Party movement and all of the states that threatened secession. We don't even know about the death threats unless they were public, or the attempts, because the Secret Service shut it down. And remember the man who got over the fence and the SS didn't mobilize quickly?

A lot of black people have spent nearly 8 years praying for the president to stay alive through his entire two terms.

I don't think the Trump supporters hate Hillary as much. They don't like her, they don't respect her, they don't trust her, but they don't want her dead in the same numbers that Obama haters did.

[vi5]

13. Oh, I didn't say it lightly...

I really do think they hate Hillary more and I think it will be worse. Obama was African American but he was also an unknown commodity. They have been hating Hillary for almost 30 years. The idea of her as president is going to drive them even more batshit crazy.

[Demsrule86]

12. Why would you post that here?

Winning is everything with the courts at stake. I have to wonder why you are even here.

[vi5]

14. I didn't say more...I said equally.....

If you don't fear the unhinged violence and terror from the freaks on the right then you haven't been paying attention. I mean you haven't been here as long as I have so....maybe you're not familiar with what the lunatics on the right are capable of.

[Demsrule86]

15. Winning is always better. I fear the results of a GOP who nominates judges more than the

unhinged cowardly keyboard warriors on the right...could some turn violent? Could happen...but winning is still way better. And to say the winning and losing are the same...is untrue and does not encourage people to vote. You made it seem as if ...win or lose ...we are still fucked so why bother (inadvertently I suppose)...and I strongly object to that.

[LeftRant]

3. 4) UFO abduction of HRC

It could happen!!!

:p

[JoePhilly]

6. The 3 items in that assessment are all basically the same ... just worded differently.

Democrats are united in crushing the Trump bug.

[ffr]

8. What you're saying is that it's like the most important factor in real estate?

location
location
location

[JoePhilly]

9. Well ... whoever made that list is saying it.

They just worded it 3 different way.

GOTV

GOTV

GOTV

[treestar]

7. Brexit was very different

and no way will so many people not bother to vote in enough numbers to make a huge difference. People are energized to vote against Donald more than there ever has been for a candidate for President.

This is a routine every four year election and Brexit was a one off issue.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Stock market crash

That's the only path that makes any sense and is not a vast underdog. Let's say 1000 points or more in the next three weeks.

It would feed into his desperate theme of TGF -- which is my term for "they're Terrible (T), I'm Great (G), I'll Fix it (F). Every Trump response basically rambles empty in TGF mode.

I do suspect there is a bit of a Shy Trump factor, and he's somewhat understated in the polls. In my neighborhood the conservatives who always have lawn signs supporting the Republican candidate now have nothing out there except birdbaths.

Trump's upside is limited because Republicans are in full hate mode. That is not an attractant. They despise Obama and they've hated Hillary for a quarter century. Double barrel. Normally the out party already hates the sitting president but it takes time to build up hate for the new nominee. Sometimes during that interim they can stumble onto a candidate on their side that they actually support, and "vote for." Not this time. I've never been worried about Trump after polls from spring revealed that a majority of his supporters were "vote against" Hillary and not "vote for" Trump. It's a natural regulator. And that percentage has moved even further in that direction in the past month. MSNBC had a poll last week indicating only 37% of Trump supporters were "vote for."