Donald Trump’s collapse was caused by one big factor: Hillary Clinton

[DonViejo]

Yes, Trump has been finally been undone by his own vileness. But don't overlook the woman who's kicking his butt

HEATHER DIGBY PARTON

-snip-

So what’s happening to make this dramatic shift during the month of October? Clinton had been leading throughout the summer, but on Sept. 26, the day of the first debate, 538 had Donald Trump with a 51 percent chance of winning. The candidates were tied nationally at 45 percent, and the trend was moving in his favor.

The obvious answer is that Trump blew it when he made a fool of himself in the aftermath of the first debate with his 3 a.m. tweets about the former Miss Universe. Since then he has been accused by a dozen women of groping and assaulting them against their will. That “Access Hollywood” tape was a shocker. Most observers see the huge and growing gender gap as a result of all that grossness.

But something else happened as well. For about a month before that first debate the right-wing media and people in or around the Trump campaign had been spreading spurious rumors that Clinton had brain damage or Parkinson’s disease. This was barely covered in the mainstream media, but everyone in the media pays attention to Matt Drudge, who had been relentless with the story, so they were very much aware of such rumors. When Clinton had her fainting spell at the 9/11 ceremony in New York, the press spent days feigning anger about her failure to keep them properly informed about the details of her doctor’s appointments and diagnosis. (Despite campaign professionals saying they would never inform the press of anything like that, mainly because such illnesses are so common on the trail.)

Unfortunately for Clinton, the combined effect of the right’s relentless smears about some kind of disqualifying terminal illness and the press fulminating for days over her pneumonia advanced the idea that she lackied the “strength and stamina” required for the job. Coincidentally or otherwise, this was the very charge Trump had been making for months. By the first debate in late September Clinton had been off the trail quite a bit, first recovering from her pneumonia and then doing debate prep, with Trump nipping at her heels.

When she showed up looking very healthy, sharp and aggressive, it changed the narrative overnight. Indeed, her ability to bait him into misbehavior had her dominating that debate from beginning to end, when she hit him with the Alicia Machado story that had him reeling for days afterwards.

-snip-

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/24/donald-trumps-collapse-was-caused-by-one-big-factor-hillary-clinton/

[pnwmom]

1. She only made it look easy. But he turned 16 Republicans into a pile of rubble.

And her choices in she handled him were very deliberate, very calculated, and very successful.

[NewJeffCT]

7. agreed - that can't be emphasized enough

If defeating Trump was so easy, why did he get more delegates than the other 16 Republicans in the field combined? I remember early in the race, Morning Joe and Nicole Wallace were almost orgasming over Jeb Bush and how much better than W he was, how he was always the smartest guy in the room, etc. Yet, Trump was able to take him out with one tweet about Jeb being low energy.

[whatthehey]

11. Not the same competition

The Republican primary is like 80s figureskating with Soviet judges. It is not a normal, unbiased and representative panel that you need to win over. When the people who care enough to vote in Republican primaries are dominated by know-nothing Tea Party bigots, as they indeed are, that's the kind of campaign you need to run to win. Running the same campaign of juvenile name-calling and outrageous false claims doesn't do so well when normal people are paying attention.

None of this was difficult to predict. The only fears were that either Trump was faking it in the primaries and would pivot into reasonable moderation in the GE, or that he would hire and listen to an actual professional campaign manager who could teach him how to fake that moderation in the GE. Neither turned out to be true, and the arc was thereafter inevitable.

[pnwmom]

15. Hillary carefully and skillfully played the gender card against him.

Not everyone would have had the nerve or the physical ability to do so. She wore a red pantsuit, purposely called him Donald, and let him charge around like a bull. Among other things, she deliberately dropped the Alicia Machado name in the first debate, hoping he would take the bait, and he did. He spent the next day tearing down a beauty queen's looks.

And so every time he tried his name-calling, or interrupting, or bullied Hillary in any way from then on, it was in the context of the misogyny that Hillary made certain was established in that first debate. By time time he called Hillary "such a nasty woman," he'd permanently lost the votes of millions of independent women, and sealed his fate.

No male candidate could have used this tactic, and so we don't know what other tactics might have overcome Trump. But we know how Hillary chose to do it. She allowed the audience to compare and contrast her utterly calm, steady, intelligent and highly-informed performance with his crazed woman-hating. She allowed the audience to view the woman-hating in real time. And it was wonderful to see her up there, watching him pour gasoline on himself, and tossing him a match -- knowing he was the only one who'd go up in flames.

[Cha]

2. Agreed! It was Hillary who done him in!

The debates were killer to drumpf and it was all Hillary's fault!

[Orsino]

3. He lost big-time to a nasty woman with brain damage and no stamina. n/t

[vlyons]

4. I respectfully disagree

While the alt-right did rumor monger HRC's health, it was Trump himself, who made his candidacy so extremely unattractive. His vile misogynistic abuse of women was certainly the biggest factor. I'd like to point out that his continuous stupid statements, battles with the republican party, and almost 100% focus on making everything be about me me me me me were big turn-offs. Has there ever been a worse candidate? Trump will go into the history books right up there with Herbert Hoover. But at least Hoover had real business experience as a mining engineer and as a humanitarian post WWI. Trump has nothing to commend. Nada

[backscatter712]

8. To be fair to Clinton, she did play well in trolling Trump and baiting him into saying stupid things

But yes, Trump's wounds are absolutely self-inflicted.

[pnwmom]

18. She did it to him. She relentlessly exposed his woman-hating in front of an audience

of 80 million people, and then reinforced it at the end with her reference to Alicia Machado. From then on, every single time he attacked her, in the mode that worked for him in he primaries, it was in the context of his misogyny. And it failed miserably.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512540069#post15

[BlueStreak]

5. Hillary has been amazingly sharp, except during her health scare

but Hillary entered this campaign with higher negatives than any winning Presidential candidate ever. To her credit, she has been able to improve those negatives a little, despite already being extremely well known to the public. I can't imagine how she could have run a better campaign.

Having said all that, I don't think she wins if she is running against Kasich, Christie, Jeb, or Walker and maybe Cruz or Fiorina for example. This is a change election and Hillary is seen as continuing on the Obama path. The outcome is all about Trump, who is surely the worst candidate that has run at least since Goldwater, and that is probably unfair to Goldwater.

[duffyduff]

6. The fact is she didn't run against the others, and the ONLY viable candidate was Kasich.

The others were simply non-factors.

I can't believe you actually believe she would have lost against the likes of Cruz or the unqualified Fiorina.

I suppose you think Sanders would have done better.

The plain, unvarnished truth is NO Republican was going to win this year, not even Kasich although he would have put up a fight. This is far more a significant win than Obama's was in 2008.

It would have been nearly impossible to run a campaign against the first major party female candidate in American history without alienating millions upon millions of women of all political stripes. I think you really don't appreciate what a watershed moment it truly is. Obama's election was nothing compared to this.

The election of 2016 was NEVER in doubt from the time Obama was elected in 2008.

[GOLGO 13]

9. The days of Bush/Kasich type of GOP is over. Crazy is the now GOP norm.

TRUMP is the new template to get the nomination.

[BlueStreak]

25. That's a primary issue

The GOP has allowed its primary process to get so far outside the mainstream that it is no longer possible to nominate a somewhat rational player who throws out red meat to the fringe during the primaries, then quickly tries to put that behind him when entering the general election season. If the GOP doesn't fix their primary process, they will never be viable for POTUS.

There are some things they could change.

1) Limit the debates to the top 4 or 5 candidates, both in terms of polling and fund-raising.

2) Use debate formats that don't encourage the "Lock her up" types. If necessary, do nothing but town halls with 20 well-screened people in the room, or run the debates without a live audience.

3) Get moderators that will focus the debates on real issues, not sound bites.

4) Limit the candidates to people who actually have a track record including recent governing experience at some leevl above the local school board.

5) Include fact-checking in the debate format.

But who thinks the GOP could bring itself to do even one of these things?

[Johnyawl]

14. Quite right, duffyduff! I'll add just one thought...

...The Clinton team has run four national campaigns now. The only one they've lost was 2008, to Obama. If she wins in two weeks - which I'm supremely confident she will - they will be 3 and 0 against republicans. I truly believe they would have found a path to victory regardless of who the opponent was. Kasich would have been the toughest, but going into debates with an opponent that would stick to issues, she would have hung that republican anti-woman, anti immigrant, anti- social security, pro gun platform around his neck like a burning tire.

She would have steam-rolled the rest of those non-entities.

[Fast Walker 52]

16. yeah, it was "baked in the cake", as they say

she just had to avoid any real mistakes (the email issue was ALWAYS overblown and ridiculous)

[pnwmom]

20. I agree with much of your post but not the idea that a GOP win

was impossible. It's very unusual for a party to win a 3rd term under any circumstances. If Hillary had not so skillfully played the gender card that life had dealt to her, then she might not have won.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512540069#post15

[oberliner]

24. Kasich was never a viable candidate

The Trump wing of the party has no use for him.

[BlueCaliDem]

12. This is a 'change' election, sure, but for DC. DC is Congress, not the presidency - especially not

with a president who's approval numbers are around 55%.

Hopefully, we can change Congress. I feel confident about the Senate (since this election, Republicans have to defend 24 seats) but the U.S. House is probably too gerrymandered to win without new redistricting that won't happen until 2020-2021.

[pnwmom]

19. It is hilarious and pathetic at the same time to see even Dems

not realize that the first woman President in more than 200 years will represent a sea change in this country.

Just being a woman makes her an outsider, no matter how hard she's worked or what her experience and connections are.

[frazzled]

10. The more people see her, the more they like and respect her

The more people see him, the more they ... can't even.

This has always been the case for Hillary Clinton. Whenever she's doing a job (senator, Secretary of State), she is admired. Whenever she's running for president, she's suddenly the evil one. The people who say they don't "trust" her have just been listening to pundits who say "people don't trust her." Then they see her, and she's smart, and serious, and direct, and even personable.

Reality Trumps Hate.

[BlueCaliDem]

13. ^^^This!^^^ k&r Wonderful analysis and so spot on, frazzled! eom

[Fast Walker 52]

17. my exact feelings too!

[Martin Eden]

21. Trump's collapse was caused by 3 big factors

Hillary's performances at the debates
The 2005 Access Hollywood tape & allegations of sexual assault
Donald Trump's behavior since then

Not sure how to rank those factors, but I think the implosion of Trump's campaign has more to do with it than Hillary's excellent debate performances.

[Sunlei]

22. His Fellow Republicans shunned him, he was always weak compared to ANY D candidate.

[peggysue2]

23. A disgraced GOP

Not only did the Republicans nominate a totally unhinged, unsuitable candidate but they ran him against a woman they had demonized for nearly 30 years. The Great Smear Machine kicked into drive right after Hillary Clinton left the State Department. Why? Because despite their best efforts, Hillary left State with nearly a 70% approval rating. Terrified of a Presidential run from HRC, they spent 4 long years investigating, accusing and howling over every perceived misstep, screamed foul corruption repeatedly and attempted to turn Hillary's strengths into weaknesses.

Didn't work.

And the reason it didn't work is Hillary's staying power, her knowledge and . . . let's face it, her political savvy. She learned a lot of lessons in 2008 on how not to run a campaign. People laughed when it was reported that her team had run a psychological/character profile on The Donald. The result? She knew exactly how to unnerve the man and trigger his worst instincts. In the mean time, she stayed grounded, focussed and worked her ass off.

There's nothing miraculous or lucky in the results we're seeing now. Because Hillary Clinton and her devoted team are professionals who have not sweated the small stuff and kept their eyes on the finish line.

She's going to be a great president, who earned every inch of the ground game and the soon-to-be-reported win.

[stonecutter357]

26. K&R!