538: What Went Wrong For Gary Johnson

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

This was supposed to be the year the Libertarian Party went mainstream. Given the two historically unpopular major party candidates and with a former governor, Gary Johnson, as their nominee, things were looking good for the Libertarians. Johnson made it onto the ballot in all 50 states. He was regularly polling in the low double digits, and his support held up after the Democratic and Republican parties’ conventions — past the point when most third-party candidates begin to fade.

Things, however, have taken a turn for the worse for Johnson. His numbers are dropping — from about 9 percent in national polls in August to 6 percent now — and he’s been overshadowed by another (and previously even more obscure) third-party candidate.

Johnson’s decline isn’t shocking. Third-party candidates usually lose steam the closer we get to the election. But Johnson is faltering even against that standard. Based on his polling in late August, FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model, which accounts for the drop-off third-party candidates usually experience, projected Johnson to get around 7 percent of the vote. The same model has him down to just 5.6 percent now.

What went wrong? You could point to Johnson’s missing the debates. He has lost about 1.5 percentage points from his national poll numbers since late September (when the first debate took place). However, he may have already been on a downward trajectory before the debates took place; on Sept. 25, the day before the first debate, he had 7.3 percent, on average, in national polls, compared with 9 percent a month before. So, it’s quite possible Johnson’s numbers would have continued to dip even if he appeared on the debate stage. Johnson, of course, has committed some policy-related gaffes — not knowing basic facts about the Syrian War or being able to name a foreign leader he admires — that suggest perhaps the debates would have been rough on him.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-went-wrong-for-gary-johnson/undefined

[Little Star]

1. Two things....

He's a Independent & he's Gary Johnson. For good measure throw in a third, he picked Bill Weld to be his running mate.

[geek tragedy]

2. 1. He's a nut. 2. He's an uninformed nut. 3. He's a deeply unserious, uninformed nut nt

[ismnotwasm]

5. This!

Couldn't agree more

[relayerbob]

6. Yep! What went wrong?

He showed up as their candidate

[Lord Magus]

16. None of that stops Trump the Chump from polling at 40%. -nt-

[geek tragedy]

17. Trump is a superior huckster nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. Johnson won't get more than 4% and Stein less than 1% on election day

That's my take, mostly. I actually think Johnson will get less than 3% when all is said and done.

[Thinkingabout]

4. His policy positions do not agree with mine, his stand on getting rid of SS and Medicare is a

stopper for me.

[lovemydog]

14. Same here.

Get rid of social security, get rid of medicare, get rid of income tax. This would exacerbate inequality much like republicans' policy proposals to 'cut taxes across the board' which really means cut trillions in taxes for the most wealthy corporations & individuals, cut taxes a few bucks for the rest, increase military spending, blow up the deficit and cut entitlements.

[Puzzler]

7. Just a wild guess, but probably the media...

... attention he received. He got a fair amount, unfortunately for him.

Actual coverage of Johnson made it very clear he is an idiot, and his "deer in the headlights" look and general goofiness he oozed, made him a singularly and utterly poor candidate.

Johnson may have actually gained more support if he had been largely ignored.

[TonyPDX]

8. Other than being even less qualified than Donald Trump, what's his problem?

[amuse bouche]

9. He's so unimformed that Bill Maher said 'he gives stoners a bad name'.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

10. Is there a Libertarian Party? Did they actually choose Gary Johnson?

He could not have been the best person, right?

Of course, the Republicans chose Trump, so anything's possible.

[randome]

11. Some people run to lose.

He can finesse this in the mirror to convince himself he has done something worthwhile in his life but on another, hidden level, he knows he is not a serious candidate. So does everyone else.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]"Everybody is just on their feet screaming 'Kill Kill Kill'! This is -hockey- Conservative values!"
-Slap Shot (1977)[/center][/font][hr]

[beachbumbob]

13. He come across as an imbecile...Only Jill stein makes him appear smart

[DFW]

15. I have heard it was only a nasty rumor

It is apparently NOT true that Johnson was asked about Aleppo and said he didn't really have any brand preference when it came to dog food.