2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: What Went Wrong For Gary Johnson
This was supposed to be the year the Libertarian Party went mainstream. Given the two historically unpopular major party candidates and with a former governor, Gary Johnson, as their nominee, things were looking good for the Libertarians. Johnson made it onto the ballot in all 50 states. He was regularly polling in the low double digits, and his support held up after the Democratic and Republican parties conventions past the point when most third-party candidates begin to fade.
Things, however, have taken a turn for the worse for Johnson. His numbers are dropping from about 9 percent in national polls in August to 6 percent now and hes been overshadowed by another (and previously even more obscure) third-party candidate.
Johnsons decline isnt shocking. Third-party candidates usually lose steam the closer we get to the election. But Johnson is faltering even against that standard. Based on his polling in late August, FiveThirtyEights polls-plus model, which accounts for the drop-off third-party candidates usually experience, projected Johnson to get around 7 percent of the vote. The same model has him down to just 5.6 percent now.
What went wrong? You could point to Johnsons missing the debates. He has lost about 1.5 percentage points from his national poll numbers since late September (when the first debate took place). However, he may have already been on a downward trajectory before the debates took place; on Sept. 25, the day before the first debate, he had 7.3 percent, on average, in national polls, compared with 9 percent a month before. So, its quite possible Johnsons numbers would have continued to dip even if he appeared on the debate stage. Johnson, of course, has committed some policy-related gaffes not knowing basic facts about the Syrian War or being able to name a foreign leader he admires that suggest perhaps the debates would have been rough on him.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-went-wrong-for-gary-johnson/undefined
Little Star
(17,055 posts)He's a Independent & he's Gary Johnson. For good measure throw in a third, he picked Bill Weld to be his running mate.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)ismnotwasm
(41,955 posts)Couldn't agree more
relayerbob
(6,536 posts)He showed up as their candidate
Lord Magus
(1,999 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)That's my take, mostly. I actually think Johnson will get less than 3% when all is said and done.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)stopper for me.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)Get rid of social security, get rid of medicare, get rid of income tax. This would exacerbate inequality much like republicans' policy proposals to 'cut taxes across the board' which really means cut trillions in taxes for the most wealthy corporations & individuals, cut taxes a few bucks for the rest, increase military spending, blow up the deficit and cut entitlements.
Puzzler
(2,505 posts)... attention he received. He got a fair amount, unfortunately for him.
Actual coverage of Johnson made it very clear he is an idiot, and his "deer in the headlights" look and general goofiness he oozed, made him a singularly and utterly poor candidate.
Johnson may have actually gained more support if he had been largely ignored.
TonyPDX
(962 posts)amuse bouche
(3,657 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,315 posts)He could not have been the best person, right?
Of course, the Republicans chose Trump, so anything's possible.
randome
(34,845 posts)He can finesse this in the mirror to convince himself he has done something worthwhile in his life but on another, hidden level, he knows he is not a serious candidate. So does everyone else.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]"Everybody is just on their feet screaming 'Kill Kill Kill'! This is -hockey- Conservative values!"
-Slap Shot (1977)[/center][/font][hr]
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)DFW
(54,268 posts)It is apparently NOT true that Johnson was asked about Aleppo and said he didn't really have any brand preference when it came to dog food.