Nate Silver: Hillary On The Winning Path. NYT Agrees

[Coyotl]

Last edited Mon Oct 24, 2016, 06:47 PM - Edit history (1)

dKos August 16: Nate Silver: Hillary On The Winning Path. NYT Agrees

... Nate Silver on 538 wrote a piece called "Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady​"

He comments on how the group of polls (sans Gravis), that do weekly or tracking polls that are mostly robopolls or online polls, are maintaining a steady +5ish advantage for Hillary. Is the Bump over? ..................

.... the images he created .... the right up for each scenario is fascinating ........

Nate Silver wrote: " our polls-only model continues to show Clinton ahead by around 8 percentage points. And it gives her an 89 percent chance of winning, close to where she’s been over the past week."







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Oct. 23: Who will win the presidency?
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 Oct 23
No big changes, but Clinton up another tick or two in our forecast based on this AM's polls. http://53eig.ht/29fvWfn

[Txbluedog]

1. I think the margin might be much closer than even 8 points

[duffyduff]

3. Doubt it. n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Same

BTW, the links in this thread are from August 16.

I predict Hillary will win all three debates. Billy Bush should enjoy these Olympics. I'm not sure he's done enough for NBC to retain him through Tokyo in 2020.

[Foggyhill]

7. With the latino votes and all the talk of "rigging", doubt that

It will be 8% minimum

[NurseJackie]

9. Really?

Hm.

[duffyduff]

2. I am looking at a Clinton win somewhere along the lines of 1964 or 1936

By rights Trump should not carry a single state.

Despite the views of a few, no Republican candidate, not even John Kasich, was going to win this year. It is difficult if not impossible to mount a successful campaign against the first female presidential candidate of a major party in the history of the United States.

It is a big deal, folks, the election of the first woman president.

[boomer55]

4. Please be a blowout, please be a blowout, please be a blowout!

[unblock]

6. i put +16 squarely in fantasy land, but i can still drool over that map, lol!

[tavernier]

8. Vote. N/T

[OnDoutside]

10. Would this take into account a superior GOTV operation and Reps stay at home ?

[SticksnStones]

11. Love that last scenario

God, it's like poll porn....I wanna go out right now and elect something ~

[Persondem]

12. I'll be happy with 8% plus some coattails for the Senate nt

[Coyotl]

13. 538's current prediction is 336-200, dKos = 341-197, Huff Post 302-180 w/56 battleground.

Clinton leads in three battleground states w/ 39 of the 56, OH. FL, and NV.

The national popular vote spread is at 6.1% and I expect the polls are biased by at least 2% red placing us at the magic 8% in the first graphic in the OP and 375 electoral votes. Now imagine if we take GA, UT, MT, TX, IN, and MO.